Marlins attendance - prediction

It seems a foregone conclusion the Marlins will struggle to attract fans this season, but just how bad will it be? I'm guessing ACTUAL attendance (fannies in the seats) will epic, historically bad ... you will be able to use binoculars and count the number of people at the game when they play teams without a loyal fan base such as the Pirates, Brewers or Rockies. But the reported attendance will be artificially inflated by ownership too embarrassed to admit the local community despises him. My guess is the team will barely break the million mark, only because of fans coming out to root for the Mets, Phillies and Cubs.

Yet there was a time when the million mark was good. The popularity of the sport in some areas have skewed our perception. With revenue sharing Marlins may still turn a profit with just a mil attendance.

I don't think team as constructed had any chance of becoming competitive. Their history does indicate however if enough of the prospects they collected this winter come through they will spend for a season or two to take a shot at a playoff run.

This is actually part of moneyball theory. In seasons where you do not think you can compete you sell off for prospects and save your money for seasons where you believe you can. Oakland operates this way though maybe a little better at judging talent so usually more of their obtained prospects hit. But hard to argue with Marlins 2 WS wins for those who might claim Miami plays the moneyball game better.

It occurs to me the Marlins could be a good case study on what the ultimate goal of a team should be.
Is it to be in contention every year or to maximize chances of periodically winning it all.
Which is more satisfying for a fan base? Winning 2 world series in a 14 year period or making playoffs 14 years in a row with only 1 world series win?

The Marlin approach has led to 2 wins. The Braves approach led to 1 with annual contention for it. But I remember towards the end of that run Atlanta was not even selling out playoff games. Are there any lessons to be learned there?

As a former Marlins season ticket holder for 10 years, I believe they could play their games at their spring training facility in Jupiter and still not sell out the place this year. They've got 5,000 people who actually renewed for this season, knowing they'd be seeing a AAA team at best. They might draw a few folks who are curious about the new stadium, but they'll dry up quickly.

I'm just glad it isn't 15 or 20 years ago. Back then, I'd be stuck having to watch their games on TV. Fortunately, the Rays' feed reaches us in Broward County, and a local radio station carries the entire Yankees schedule.

We've been cursed down here. After Wayne Huisenga dumped payroll following the first World Series win, John Henry bought in as a way to gain part ownership of the Red Sox. I've worked with too many Canadians who warned me about Jeffrey Luria and how he screwed the good people of Montreal. Well, he did it again here.

As for me, hell will freeze over before I put one dime in his pocket -- and that's coming from someone who loves sitting in the stands for a game. I once attended 163 games in a single season without leaving the friendly confines of Chicago. That's right...every game the Sox and Cubs played, including one Northside game that was replayed after being called on account of darkness.

Wow, that is a lot of baseball. Not sure if I want to feel sorry for you on what you are going through as a long time season ticket holder or be jealous because you probably attended as many games in one year as I have in my life.


But cannot resist asking. Which you prefer, a world series win every century or so or one every decade or so.

majicmg -- That's exactly the same way I feel. I love baseball, and after many years in Guam I finally live close enough to attend several major league games each year. But not this year.

The fans must send Loria (and Bud Selig) a message - we're mad as hell and not going to take it any more. I've told people the only way I'll go to a game this year is if the ticket cost less than 5 bucks. I cannot fathom how anyone would want to pay more than $70 for box seats to see a "AAAA" team lose more than 100 games this year. They won't be competitive, and I hope no one supports this joke of a team - but I suspect "Miami being Miami", there will always be a segment of the population that doesn't care about the quality of play on the field - a night at Marlins Park is an opportunity to dress up, socialize and get drunk with your friends - regardless of how bad the Marlins are. That's why I think they'll average 10K in ticket sales per game, even though there may be only 2,000 or so actually in the stands.

I tend to think it will be much less than a million - see quote below. Like passing a horrible accident on the freeway, you simply cannot look away from the carnage. Each day the sorry attendance numbers will make you gasp, and yet at the same time hold a strange fascination for us to see how low they can really go.

The Marlins said this week that their season-ticket base has been cut by more than half since last year, and that it's now down below 5,000. They admitted that only 1.4 million came through the Marlins Park turnstiles last season, even though their official announced attendance was 2.2 million.

"Miami is a wonderful baseball town," Loria said Tuesday.

...


When he (Loria) walked through Roger Dean Stadium just before gametime Tuesday, there was no reaction. No one yelled anything at him. No one even seemed to notice him.

"Maybe in Miami, but we're much more polite up here," said Hart, the fan from Sebastian, Fla. "There's more Midwesterners here."

Either that, or this is just a sign of things to come. Either that, or Loria and the Marlins have done such a job turning off their fans that those few who remain can't be bothered to raise their voices and complain.

"I know there will be about 5,000 loyal fans who will come out no matter what," said Duda.

He said he bought a season-ticket package last season but didn't renew. He said he heard from others who tried to cancel their renewals after the big trade, only to be told they couldn't.

"When [the Marlins] called to try to sell me tickets, they were trying to sell me on the Clevelander," he said, referring to the nightclub behind the left-field fence. "If I want to go to a nightclub, I can go anywhere."

That is sad when for what should be a family tradition the biggest selling point is a club.... and it's not the baseball club.

Wow, that is a lot of baseball. Not sure if I want to feel sorry for you on what you are going through as a long time season ticket holder or be jealous because you probably attended as many games in one year as I have in my life.


But cannot resist asking. Which you prefer, a world series win every century or so or one every decade or so.

There's nothing to compare to the thrill of having season tickets directly behind home plate during two World Series in a 10-year period. However, I truly believe it's better to enjoy one Series in a lifetime -- or none at all, as has been the plight of Cubs fans for the past century -- with a franchise you can believe in. The Marlins organization has been in constant turmoil from day one. Just when you think they've changed their stripes, they invent new ways to break your heart.

At least with the Cubs, you know what you're in for from spring training to season's end. Hope springs eternal every March.

The Marlins ownership has been heartless to the extreme, and done everything possible to keep me and many of my friends from their turnstiles.

We promise Cuban refugees citizenship if they attend a Marlin series to increase attendance, or maybe have another Cuban Missle Crisis thingies and station troops around the stadium hoping to catch a few games before hitting the drink...

Sincerely,
Delivery Boy...