I don't think you can name a dollar cutoff. A lot of that depends on the position. For some positions the pool is very deep and you can expect an acceptable replacement. Some positions are shallow and there is a big dropoff after the top tier. That is part of the art of drafting. I would go with the general rule if shallow put your choice high on draft card. If deep then gamble by going middle of draft card.
For 200 mil purposes I like to list the top 12-15 players with that position as primary. If I am drafting a card's most expensive version I should have reason to expect a consolation among this list. How comfortable I feel about the lower part of that list will often influence how high I place that player on my draft card.
Ex: Reggie Jackson. It seems to me that you should either draft his $10.13 card so you might get someone useful if you miss, OR his $3.79 card because you won't get a useful replacement at his higher middle cards anyway.
You are probably correct. Go all in or go budget on Reggie. My thought is if he is the only RFer you are drafting then better go with the expensive one so your consolation will be decent. If he is being drafted as plan B and you have say Aaron high on your card then go with the cheap Reggie.