J.Upton 2012

Has anyone tried him out? I've poured over dozens of teams and have not
Seen him on a single one! Does he have bird flu? Why is everyone staying away from
Him? I tried to get swisher off of waivers but he was snagged up and I saw Upton was
Still sitting there. As far as I can see he has a decent card. Is there something I'm missing?
I was thinking of using him as my lead off hitter in Coors, any advice or thoughts on this for
A new comer? I've put A LOT of man hours in to this team and so any help would be wonderful
Stuff mates. I've also got the shadow of the all mythical man known as J-Pav looming over me
From out west. After reading over all of his wonderful tips and thoughts on the game I am honored and
A little frightened to be in the same league as him. I would love to give this legend a good run
For his money. thanks for your time

Caveat - I haven't used Coors much in my strat manager career - only once I think. I generally prefer ballparks that are singles oriented but with low power. Other managers might have more insight than I do regarding Coors.

There isn't anything terribly wrong with Justin Upton's card, or your idea to use him on your team at Coors. Here are the positives:

-great arm in RF (-3), with a decent e rating (6) and range (2). I especially like good OF arms in parks with high singles chances (like Coors).
-max injury 3 games, and a salary that doesn't break the bank, at $5.8 million.
-decent OB% (38 die roll chances vs RHP and 41 vs LHP, excluding BP effects).
-N power both ways, with some BP HR's (3 die roll chances vs LHP and 2 vs RHP). W power at Coors is not recommended, but Upton passes this test.
-very good base running (1-17) - I also like this in parks with high BP singles, like Coors.

Negatives:

- a lukewarm card. Except for the outfield arm and baserunning, there isn't anything on Upton's card that really stands out as being well above average.

As a result, it's hard to know where to put him in the batting order, or what ballpark is ideal for him in 2012. My sense of the ideal ballpark for Upton 2012 is Fenway (btw thanks for the thought-provoking question!), where the ballpark singles and "decent" RHB HR chances fit his card.

Most strat managers (in my discussions and experiences with other managers) like to have a little more than 38 on base results vs RHP for their lead-off man, especially in a HR park like Coors. I think many managers would say they look for 40 or more, but preferably 43-44 OB die results vs RHP for a lead-off man.

And in a HR park, I think many managers might avoid a player with only 2 BP HR chances against RHP (and 3 vs LHP). They might carry a player like that with good defense at 2b or SS, but might prefer more BP HR chances from an outfielder. In my experience, it seems like managers in HR parks will try to shave $ off their budget for their pitchers, and put the extra $ to work to get more BP HR's and OB% in their lineups, generally. For pitchers, look for low BP HRs and walks on the pitcher cards. In a crazy HR park, the value of a walk creeps up to being somewhat closer to the value of a single.

In a pure HR park with fewer BP singles (like Great American), there might be more emphasis on OB% and less emphasis on base-running, even at the lead-off position. At Coors, with high BP singles, I think great base running and outfield arms become more important, but you still want to maximize the OB% for the first 3 batters in the order, for the BP HRs to drive people home in the 3rd to 6th spots in the batting order.

Where and how would I use Upton? I think he would be ideally suited to bat ahead of a player who hits for average, with singles and doubles. In that situation, the value of Upton's superior baserunning ability is maximized, by taking extra bases on those singles and doubles. He can easily score from first on double, or from second on a single, against most OF arms. I think he can hit lead-off with good value for money in that situation, as long as the players hitting behind him are hitting base hits, not necessarily HRs. The ideal ballpark would be a singles park like Fenway, with a team built for base hits and running. His stealing rating (4-6, 16, 12) is well-suited to playing against teams with sub-par holding of runners (+ arms for catchers and + holding by pitchers), where the opportunity with a 16 first rating can pay off more frequently. The good second rating (12) means that your second, third or clean-up hitters may benefit from "++" X chart readings for the opponents 2b or SS when Upton is standing on second base taking a lead, as well as the downward shift in the fielder's range rating.
Part 1 of 2 - cont.

cont. from above - 2 of 2 -


Can he work in that role at Coors? Yes, but you might not get the same value for money if the batters hitting behind him in the order are guys who hit HRs and not singles or doubles, especially vs RHP's.

Would Upton work hitting lower in the order? Maybe, but see above re lack of HRs. By the way, Upton's other extra-base hits are also "lukewarm" (only 3 die roll chances vs LHP and a little better, 5, against RHP). And, he's not a good clutch hitter. He does have 26 die roll chances for hits vs RHP - quite good - so he could also hit second in the batting order, or even third, vs RHP, but I think it's lead-off or bust vs LHP (20 die roll chances for hits, but 21 walks or HBPs!). He costs too much to hit in the bottom of the order in any regular situation, unless its a $100M cap league, IMO.

Back to your original comment - In the 3 2012 leagues that I am in (other than keeper leagues), he has appeared on a roster just once, and then was dropped (all 3 drafts have been completed, and one league has run the max games since the cards were released). So I agree with your observation, based on what I've seen so far.

His results in the league that he appeared in were as follows (at Rogers ballpark):

# Upton, Justin R RF 2(-3)e6 203 24 50 6 2 5 20 16 43 2 2 1 B 1-17 .246 .308 .370 1 E 5.80M

Again, the OB% is low at .308 - not high enough for a lead-off hitter on a HR-oriented team. His SB-CS were just 2-2, despite playing in a division with more or less average holding by the division rivals' pitchers and catchers. (This may indicate some conservative stealing settings maybe? just 2 SB's?). BUT, he was 7 for 7 in baserunning situations! His team has hit 170 home runs, 30 triples, 243 doubles and 697 singles (333 walks) in 132 games at Rogers. For a baserunning player, the team's singles/doubles per game seems low to me at 7 per game. With players behind him hitting more singles and doubles, Upton's baserunning opportunities might be higher. By the way, he started that season hitting 7th vs RHP and 6th vs LHP. It actually was a $100 million cap league.

Thanks for the interesting question!

Good luck!

And by the way, I haven't tried him yet, but after thinking about it, now I have some ideas!

you hit all the nails on the head.

Defense, baserunning, injury all great. Unfortunetly, that takes up essentially 2/3 of that salary.

The rest is for hitting, which tbh, is average, at best. Not great OB, or hits, or TB, or HR. Definetly not a middle of the order hitter, definetly not a good lead off man. Best suited to be a 7/8/9 hitter in a high cap league. And if you were going to do that, why not Parra who is much much cheaper?

A team has this exact scenario in my league. Here are his stats after 27 games, 12 @ Coors:

Overall: .227/.261/.446, 6 HR, 1SB; @ Coors: .245/.245/.528, 4 HR, 1SB.

All 6 of his HR's have been at Coors.

If you want more stats just ask.

BlackFinn

In a power park , for about the same money you could have Harper and a lot more power. I know he's a 3 but does have a -4 arm which is nice

Harper is a 2 in RF so defense is almost equal I just think you can find the same output for less money

rudy

sorry I was looking at the wrong Upton (not the first time I've done that)
In that case, in RF I'd definitely take Harper and for less money

sorry I was looking at the wrong Upton

Doesn't matter. Be Brave and take both Uptons.