expected lost games to injury

Good work. The formula seems correct. I would suggest, however, that 670 PA is too low for a player who is going to play every game. If you take a look at Matt Kemp last year, I think you'll find that he routinely got more than 700 PA. It's hard to calc because you don't see Sac Flies nor HBPs (doubt he bunted much!) so I would say that 710-720 would be more typical.

I checked four leagues
715
734
721
716

Avg = 721.5

Remember that's only adding AB and BBs together.

Also, I think the average number of starts missed is 3.55.

You're going to roll an injury on a 1 injury guy .0046 of the time (1/216)

Not sure why you're using a 151 game season. I've seen plenty of players go through an entire season w/o an apparent injury roll.

Bottom line, I think your numbers are a bit low. I figure a 1 injury is going to miss 8% of the starts or ~13. Now, that's not accounting for the potential loss of games due to injury so I might be overstating it a little bit, but then again, I don't account directly for the 1/2 games missed so I think it's probably pretty close to 13.

"Not sure why you're using a 151 game season"

I'm not -- that was a very, very minor point, and not intended as you suggest

as for Kemp -- I'm imagining a 5th-slot hitter (or "between 4 and 5" with no DH) as "average", as I describe by mentioning batting order and platooning, above;

it increases if a guy hits higher in the line-up;

moreover, 670 was just an example based on criticisms 3 years ago, when I posted it and everyone said my estimates for PAs were too high (I suggested 700) -- the formula allows you to use ANY number of PAs, and I just did a sample calculation using 670, because people were nagging about it

while we're on the subject, check out this team (see "inj" column -- it's not in a theme league):

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1023809

it can really hit -- more than 5 runs per game (league avg, other than my team, is less than 4.4)

if Sabathia hadn't mysteriously sucked so far, I'm sure I'd be leading for the wild card -- the fielding is decent, too (not great)

note the prices --- only three hitters at 5m-5.5m, and most less than 3m

Wow--that team is an eye-opener for me---I played Strat from about 68 to 73 and only basic game--I think L-R cards came out in 71 but we didn't play much that way, now that I'm "retireded" I can play again ---there were very few --maybe a half dozen cards in all those years that had an injury rating worse than 2. All these cards with high injury ratings surprised me and in my first two series Kemp and Dirks took 15 and 10 game injurys, and being a rookie at the online game I dumped them, and my team is worse for it--should have kept them.

This is so good I thought it deserved a bump just in case someone missed it

Having read Clowntime's post concerning expected lost games to injury (see his quote below), I have reached the conclusion that if a player with a rating '1' goes 140 games without injury, for example, one can expect that HAL has baked into the injury logic that he will be injured about 11.20 games over the next 22 games in order to "force" the math to equal expectations. I have a player that just missed six games, came back, and was injured again in the game of his return for another four games. He was injury free until about Game 140.
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Clowntime's writeup:
Here's an example, using 670 for "B" (average full-season PAs) and 0.42 for "D" (average value of "remainder of game"). I left "C" as 216 and "E" (length of season) as 162. ("A" and "I" are not variable.) You can use other numbers if you prefer, with no change in the formula's strength except if you vary "E" substantially.

(If any of the below varies from what the formula "should" produce, then it just means I've made a number-crunching error -- I didn't double-check.)

Average starts and games missed per season for "sub-600 AB+W" players:

rating 1 -- 9.98 starts missed and 11.20 games missed
2 -- 18.81 and 21.09
3 -- 26.66 and 29.90
4 -- 33.70 and 37.80
5 -- 40.04 and 44.91
6 -- 45.79 and 51.35

Average starts and games missed per season for "600 or more AB+W" players:

1 -- 5.44 and 6.69
2 -- 10.53 and 12.95

how about Jose Reyes 2013....

160 GP
705 PA's

I have had him on 9 teams....never gets injured.....not even a remainder of game injury incurred.

Having read Clowntime's post concerning expected lost games to injury (see his quote below), I have reached the conclusion that if a player with a rating '1' goes 140 games without injury, for example, one can expect that HAL has baked into the injury logic that he will be injured about 11.20 games over the next 22 games in order to "force" the math to equal expectations. I have a player that just missed six games, came back, and was injured again in the game of his return for another four games. He was injury free until about Game 140.

No. Thankfully, SOM does not do this. Each at bat is independent of previous results. Each split deck injury draw is independent of previous results or injuries. There is no adjustment to injuries based on previous results. Period.

I agree with the splinter's comment above--I used Reyes and Cano on several teams and I know I hit the injury on Cano several times because it is a HBP on 1-12 on both sides of the card--he never missed the remainder of game, nor did Reyes, but my attention was not drawn to Reyes as much.

I was so sure with my last few teams that they wouldn't even miss the remainder of a game, I didn't bother to worry about even carrying a .5 guy to cover 2nd or SS if I got both players.

not an AB missed on this team--this was the only actual team of mine that had no cover at 2nd or SS at all, as I usually had someone like Valdespin.

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/sim/1118291

edit 1/24---Headley did not miss a inning either to my knowledge.

I think PAs for players who don't get injured really depend on how many runs your team scores. I had a team that scored many runs (991 or 6.1 a game), and Headley got 759 PA leading off, Cano got 721 hitting 4th, and Trout got 733 hitting 2nd - and he missed 8 games! Yet I had another team where Kevin Frandsen played all 162, and had only 699, despite hitting 2, 4, or 5 every game. That team scored only 663 runs, which I think was the major factor. I definitely think 670 is low, but other than that it's hard to tell.

Another interesting and related topic that I haven't seen discussion on before is: does anyone have a theory on what is the best combination of injury prone players and injury-proof players on a team? The more injuries you risk, the better your team is with everyone healthy. I try to always have a mix, with a couple of capable backups behind the fragile players, but I have gone too far before, and ended up with half my team injured in the playoffs...