NLD 32 - Let's Play Two

Hi Joe,

I've got a new puppy and family over from the States, so I haven't had much Strat-O time. I'll throw my 2 cents worth in later today if I can.

I'm pretty sure my team is under-performing though. I just haven't had a chance to figure out why!

big

Joe I love the ratings and look forward to seeing how everyone stacks up in your system, but I think part of the problem with lack of chatter about it is you gave them to us too late. Its kind of like getting the S.I baseball issue in June. Preseason is where most of the hype and chatter occurs because everyone is still alive and tinkering with their teams.

I know you said you like to wait and look at usage etc. but most teams are pretty easy to read just by a quick glance at the roster. By the time your ratings came out many teams already made lots of roster moves.

Just my $.02.

I myself still enjoyed looking them over however.

Big M,

It's cool. Just wondered where the comments were.

Corky,

well, I don't like doing them before the season starts for a couple of reasons, the primary one being that without pitcher usage the ratings will certainly be off and sometimes I don't even know exactly what the lineups are going to be.

I could have done them a bit earlier, but I didn't have the time.

Also, I sort of like waiting till the first moves get made because it changes a team, sometimes significantly.

I think guys can at least look and see if that the ratings match what they think about their team or how they've performed.

I don't know if most guys don't have time to read them or comment on them, or just don't care to comment.

In the mean time, Big A refuses to lose!

He's won:
six straight
9 of 10
14 of 17
19 of 25

I could go on, suffice it say he hasn't lost a series since May 10 and hasn't lost two series in a row since we took 2 of 3 on May 5.

No wonder I can't gain on the guy. I mean, we're not playing great, but yeesh, he's heading for 100 wins. +14 in one run games!

Now you have done it. You jinxed my team!

Now you have done it. You jinxed my team!

LOL We'll see if it lasts. You were due to lose a series *sometime*!

Ok, This is something I added last year: "Luck Factor". You want to be a big positive number.

I look at the following six categories:

BPSI difference outside 75% of the STD Dev(max one point)
BPHR difference outside 75% of the STD Dev (one point for each 4%)
Record in one run games (> 4 games, one for each four games)
Pythag differential (Minimum 3 game diff)
Difference in rolls on your card (outside the STD Dev)
Unearned runs per Error percentage (outside the STD Dev)

Code: Select all

Mgr   Wins   BPSI   BPHR 1-R   Pyt Rolls UE/Err Luck Fctr
BigA...   65   5%   7%   12   4   0.0%   71%   6.5
Hawk...   53   4%   5%   4   4   -1.1%   62%   2
Gbrooke   55   -2%   5%   4   0   0.4%   44%   2
Semper.   48   -4%   8%   -1   -1   -0.3 66%   2
JTJ....   62   8%   1%   4   -2   0.3%   67%   1
Corky..   50   0%   0%   0   -4   2.7%   62%   0
AT.....   55   2%   5%   -5   2   -0.4%   89%   -1
Big M..   47   0%   -13%   -4   1   0.9%   79%   -4
Keyz...   53   -5%   -11%   -4   1   -1.7%   67%   -4.5
Stoney.   51   10%   -19%   -7   -4   -0.1%   83%   -5
Jeep...   54   -4%   -13%   1   1     0.0%     96%     -5
DJ.....   55   -13%   -16%   -4   0   -1.0%   90%   -6.5


So, it would appear that Big A has had the most breaks having positive ratings (especially in one run games) in all but the UE/error category.

DJ trails the pack in luck with a lot of bad BP rolls (which probably lead to a low one run ratio). He's also given up a lot of unearned runs per error.

Jeep isn't far behind with a lousy HR differential and lousy luck on fielding.

Stoney, Big M and Keyz are a bit unlucky and probably should be a bit better by these factors.

The two biggest difference track pretty close to two of the bigger anomalies from the ratings (Big a, DJ), but interestingly, the luck factors don't track to the differences I'm seeing from the ratings for Corky. I certainly expected to see Corky with more bad luck.

All for now. Gotta get back to work.

Joe as much as I respect your ratings your luck chart needs some work! I can guarantee you I haven't been lucky this year. A positive run differential and 9 games under .500 will attest to that!

We are lucky???? Lucky?? What do you think we are? I will use that as bulletin material for the locker room1

In other news we lost another series.

Joe as much as I respect your ratings your luck chart needs some work! I can guarantee you I haven't been lucky this year. A positive run differential and 9 games under .500 will attest to that!

Hi Corky,

I'll admit that the "luck factor" is a work in progress and, I did find a problem with my spreadsheet on Win diff v Pythag that adjusted your, Hawk, Big A, and Stoney's numbers a bit.

That said, let's look at what information SOM gives us about luck.

We have our rolls for BP (si and hr)
We have rolls on our cards
We have Pythag
We have one run games (debatable if this is luck, but let's roll with it)
And, I would say, that a high (or low) ratio of unearned runs to errors is luck.

In your case, the ratings say you should be better and your Pythag is 4 games low. Definitely factors.

On the other hand, you've rolled more on your card than anyone else in the league. Your HR and single rates are the same as your opponents and your errors ratio to unearned runs is actually a little below the league average. You're 16-16 in one run games.

So, by the measures we have available to us, you can't say you've been that unlucky. NOW, what we don't have is the timing of these breaks. So, if you get all your ball park rolls in blow out games and your opponents are getting them in tight games, you just can't tell that. Same for the timing of errors, wild pitches and the like.

Guys, remember, these are just numbers, not my opinion per se. So, please don't get upset with me. I'm just presenting them for discussion.

Big A, in your case, the big factor is one run games, but you're also ahead in Pythag and your BP Rolls. I"M not saying you're lucky, the numbers suggest it. Blame it on them!

Joe,

I'm far from upset with you, I love talking this stuff. That last post was very detailed and interesting. Your totally right about the timing thing as well...only a thorough review of the boxscores would help there and its way too time consuming to try.

Speaking of rolls i'm still not convinced that something funny isn't going on. Has anyone else noticed the propensity for guys to get on base only to be left stranded a HIGH percentage of the time? Countless times i've seen bases loaded no out and yet fail to score a run or 2nd and 3rd no out and fail to score a run. Double plays seem to be exceptionally high as well as gunning guys out at the plate. I'm not just speaking of my team here....also in ATG frequently. It's almost as if SOM is trying to generate excitment, but it's becoming way too unrealistic.