Why does the pitcher have to bat 9th?

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NYY82602

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Why does the pitcher have to bat 9th?

PostThu Aug 22, 2013 10:43 am

It's probably to simplify the programming, but I thought I'd throw this out there. When I play the board game, I have a whole theory about what factors affect whether I bat the pitcher 9th or follow the Sabermetrics and bat the pitcher 8th (or even 7th when my pitcher is a #8N.) In my first online no-DH league, I was disappointed to see that the pitcher must bat 9th. I would love to see it become more flexible, though I'm not sure I'd like to see HAL's pinch hitting moves...
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gbrookes

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Re: Why does the pitcher have to bat 9th?

PostThu Aug 22, 2013 7:04 pm

For what it's worth, I agree with you. Why not give the player the choice?

I'm intrigued by your comments. Are there articles out there recommending that the pitcher bat 8th or 7th?
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NYY82602

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Re: Why does the pitcher have to bat 9th?

PostThu Aug 22, 2013 8:31 pm

Honestly, it's been awhile since I adopted the strategy, and I don;t remember the original source I saw it at, but here's a source that believes wholeheartedly in the sabermetric approach, and has a clear conclusion:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/4/14/2110082/why-dont-sabermetric-gms-have-sabermetric-managers-and-shouldnt-they

I can go fishing for better sources at some other time, but that article outlines the gist of the sabermetric approach on lineup optimization. I'm of mixed opinion about sabermetrics in general; some of it I accept completely and some of it I find repulsive to the old-school fan in me. On the subject of lineup optimization, here's the general theory and my opinion of it:

Leadoff-Sabermetrics says your best OBP guy, who hopefully can run. I agree with this and never will lead someone off who's not one of my 3 or 4 best OBP guys.

2nd-Saber says this is your best well-rounded hitter, kind of like the old-school number 3. I generally follow this.

3rd-Saber says this really isn't an especially important spot. The logic is very interesting, and I agree with much but not all of it. The rationale is that first of all, the 3 hole comes up about 40% of the time with no one on and 2 outs in the 1st inning--the lowest leverage spot possible--, and that lineups are primarily constructed for when the top of the order leads off. Second, according to some of the research, the 3 spot leads off more innings than most other positions, therefore not being ideal for an rbi guy. I like the logic here, but I'm a bit wary, because with no ability to do controlled experiments, I think the lack of bunching of the top hitters would allow for an easier time for opposing pitchers. In the end, what I do with the 3 spot is put the worst hitter of my top end hitters; I won't put a mediocre hitter here no matter what my team is like, but I would never bat someone like Miguel Cabrera 3rd. I think that costs the Tigers runs.

4th--Saber says best hitter with power, and I agree, although I'd rather a guy who gets hits and hits for some power than a Mark Reynolds type, which I would hit 5th

Saber then says to hit guys in descending order of talent down to 7th, and I generally do this (although I weight 5-6 with power most of the time), except that I usually also leave a little power (12 HRs maybe if I have the personnel) before the pitcher if I have it, as this tends to promote intentional walks and add to my team's baserunners.

Then comes the pitcher part. Sabermetrics says hit the pitcher (or any hitter way weaker than the others) 8th so that they do not get in the way of the lineup turning over. My take on this is in between. My criteria are: I will hit the pitcher 8th if I have a shallow lineup (in this case turning over the lineup is important), if I have a really weak position player at SS or C who I can't really pinch hit for later in the game, or if I have a leadoff hitter who hits a lot of home runs. I will not hit the pitcher 8th if I have a really good SP who I am likely to not pinch hit for much or at all.

As for 7th, I have only done that a few times when my pitcher is an 8N and was actually better than my bottom hitters.

I hope this wasn't boring, but you said you were intrigued, so here it all is.
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gbrookes

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Re: Why does the pitcher have to bat 9th?

PostThu Aug 22, 2013 9:06 pm

^^^^ AWESOME! Thanks! Very, very interesting!
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scumby

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Re: Why does the pitcher have to bat 9th?

PostThu Aug 22, 2013 9:42 pm

I will counterpoint that the pitcher bats 9th to prolong the need to ph for him. the 8th slot hitter is the weakest hitting position player. I say it is more valuable to keep your SP in the game, but don't have the numbers.
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NYY82602

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Re: Why does the pitcher have to bat 9th?

PostThu Aug 22, 2013 11:16 pm

That is certainly a point, and part of the reason why this is multidimensional. But, only every 3 times through the order will the 8 hitter make the last out, giving the pitcher another inning. That would equate to 54 extra innings a year, or 11 extra for each pitcher. In the right circumstances, the 9 hitter being stronger will score more runs, and which has more effect really depends on what team you have and a little bit of blind conjecturing. I'm not sure there's a right answer.
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scumby

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Re: Why does the pitcher have to bat 9th?

PostFri Aug 23, 2013 9:49 am

I will counterpoint the 3rd position.
1)"the 3 hole comes up about 40% of the time with no one on and 2 outs in the 1st inning" -sounds logical, bit this is a paradox. your leadoff guy has the highest OBA (and your 2nd hitter is above average), which also means the odds are highest of having someone on base when the 3rd hitter comes up.

2) Your 3rd guy is protected by your cleanup hitter. He is more likely to get pitched to rather than IBB.
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coyote303

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Re: Why does the pitcher have to bat 9th?

PostFri Aug 23, 2013 10:32 am

A couple years ago, I saw the visiting team (Pirates?) bat their pitcher eighth at a Rockies game.

I don't buy this saber logic. Bottom line is the number 8 position will get an extra at bat about 11 percent of the time compared to the number 9 position. To me, that trumps this saber nonsense.
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NYY82602

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Re: Why does the pitcher have to bat 9th?

PostFri Aug 23, 2013 5:38 pm

No, the odds are highest for the number 4 guy to have higher leverage situations. He isn't in line to get up with no one on and 2 outs in the first no matter what, and he has 3 good hitters in front of him in all other innings.

I wish more people would make a more balanced analysis of the saber stuff. It makes some bad assumptions sometimes, but it's not garbage, and it can be innovative.
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scumby

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Re: Why does the pitcher have to bat 9th?

PostFri Aug 23, 2013 9:39 pm

NYY82602 wrote:No, the odds are highest for the number 4 guy to have higher leverage situations. He isn't in line to get up with no one on and 2 outs in the first no matter what, and he has 3 good hitters in front of him in all other innings.

I wish more people would make a more balanced analysis of the saber stuff. It makes some bad assumptions sometimes, but it's not garbage, and it can be innovative.



"He isn't in line to get up with no one on and 2 outs in the first" That's where this saber stuff fails. This assumes the guy with the HIGHEST OBA and the second hitter will both be out. Biggest flaw in the whole theory.

"he has 3 good hitters in front of him"- This assumes they WON'T make outs.

I'm saying the 3rd and 4th hitters are BOTH important unlike saber which discounts #3.
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