Why does the pitcher have to bat 9th?

Here's the thing about the 40% thing. I am well aware that this would imply .360 obps from the 1-2 hitters, and that this is above average. But it is better than average only for the chances of the third hitter due up in a given inning getting up with guys on base. My point is that a) 2 outs and no one on is by a fair amount the lowest leverage situation possible (which I think anyone would agree with), and b) a 40% chance of ending up in that situation is very significant and even likely. This problem does not exist for the 2nd,4th, or 5th hitter in an inning, as the 2nd hitter will either get on with 1 on no out, or no on and 1 out, which is a somewhat better situation, and the 4 and 5 hitters can only get up with guys on base.

In other words, the 3 hitter has the least chance of 2 outs no one on for all hitters due up 3rd, but obviously still has a large chance of it compared to other spots, which cannot face such a situation.

Admittedly, I am not analyzing in depth the possible permutations of situations that can occur, but rather looking at the general picture, and although it is much more nuanced, I believe those play out in similar fashion. I am in no way saying that the 3 hitter gets no big situations, or that the 3 hitter has low obp guys in front of him, but rather that whoever is up 3rd in an inning has an inherent tendency to face lesser situations a significant percentage of the time. Thus, since lineups are built such that the leadoff hitter will lead off the most innings, I am saying that I don't want my best hitter 3rd.

I am sorry if this saber stuff all seems like some sort of gimmick, but I see the logic behind it and much of it is sound. It just depends on how much significance one puts in it, because nothing is clear cut about baseball stats.

Is there a feature where you can actually view the pitcher's hitting cards?

The only place I have seen them are here---these are similar to the cd card images

http://somonline.wikia.com/wiki/Pitcher_Hitting_Cards

the 3 hole comes up about 40% of the time with no one on and 2 outs in the 1st inning--the lowest leverage spot possible--

Sabermetrics should be about stats. So taking that analysis approach.

If he comes up 40% of the time with nobody on then he is coming up 60% of the time with at least one man on and only 1 out. I definitely want one of my top batters if not my best hitting third when I have a 60% chance of someone being on base.

the 3 hole comes up about 40% of the time with no one on and 2 outs in the 1st inning--the lowest leverage spot possible--

Sabermetrics should be about stats. So taking that analysis approach.

If he comes up 40% of the time with nobody on then he is coming up 60% of the time with at least one man on and only 1 out. I definitely want one of my top batters if not my best hitting third when I have a 60% chance of someone being on base.

I agree. That's my point. You not going to improve on 60% unless you bury your high OBA hitters (which makes no sense).

the 3 hole comes up about 40% of the time with no one on and 2 outs in the 1st inning--the lowest leverage spot possible--

Sabermetrics should be about stats. So taking that analysis approach.

If he comes up 40% of the time with nobody on then he is coming up 60% of the time with at least one man on and only 1 out. I definitely want one of my top batters if not my best hitting third when I have a 60% chance of someone being on base.

but it doesn't say he's coming up 60% of the time with a runner on base. All it says is he comes up in THE FIRST INNING with 2 out 40% of the time.
The stat I take into account most for my 3 hole hitter is that he comes up in BY FAR the most runner on 1b and less than 2 out scenarios. So I dont' want a guy with a lot of GBA's batting there if possible

Good topic, lots of interesting thoughts. Here's a small collection of articles for the diehards:


http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... ight-slot/

http://www.pankin.com/sabr37.pdf

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... g-lineups/

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3 ... -lineup-by

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/403

Good topic, lots of interesting thoughts. Here's a small collection of articles for the diehards:


http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... ight-slot/

http://www.pankin.com/sabr37.pdf

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... g-lineups/

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3 ... -lineup-by

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/403

Using Sky Kalkman's logic about the 3 and 5 hitters, the cleanup guy will be leading off with no one on base a lot.

Enjoying the discussions about this.

The 4 hitter will lead off a fair number of innings. But leading off, especially for a high obp guy, is not a really low leverage spot. That's why I prefer leaving the low obp power type guys a little further down in the order.

As for that controversial 3 spot, yes you will get many situations with a man on first and less than 2 outs. I've never said I want a bad hitter there at all. But you will get less full blown rbi/high leverage situations as well. The 4-5 hitters will get more runners in scoring position, and the 2 hitter will get more spots with no outs and a guy on base. And as for the 40%, it is by no means the whole story but 2 outs and no one on is a big difference from all other situations. 1 out and you can still start something, and 2 outs with someone on and an xtra base hit scores a run. But 2 outs no one on leaves you with about a 5% chance of scoring if you don't hit a solo HR. And the 3 hitter gets that scenario far more than any other spot. That's why I tend to leave extra base hits out of the 3 spot and fill it instead with a good obp and walks, to string together the rest of the top of my order.

I know a lot of people don't agree, but a ton of analysis must be done to do much more than hypothesize on the subject.

I'd say Bill James had it pretty much correct 30 years ago.