Why does the pitcher have to bat 9th?

scumby, thanks for the links.

the takeaway for me has always been that lineup construction has always been overrated. i would prefer to invest what energy i have for optimizing performance, into selecting and drafting better players.

but it doesn't say he's coming up 60% of the time with a runner on base. All it says is he comes up in THE FIRST INNING with 2 out 40% of the time.

After the first inning you probably do not know. He could be leading off in any other given inning. So I will state again that if he comes up in THE FIRST INNING with 2 out 40% of the time simple math says when he comes up in the first inning he will do so 60% of the time with someone on base and less than 2 outs. That is not a reason to have your 5th best hitter at the plate as the article claims sabermetrics proves should be done. Sabermetrics if it says that is wrong. I am with Tony Larussa on that one. I want my best hitter at the plate in that situation.

Another problem I have with that sabermetric that was posted early in this thread.

Phillies 83.7%
Athletics 80.4%
Red Sox 80.0%
Rays 78.5%
Mariners 78.5%
Marlins 78.0%
Yankees 77.5%

I would argue that five of those teams have some of the most sabermetric front offices in MLB. So are those high stolen base percentages about general managers pushing their managers to use the green light more sparingly? Or have those teams just acquired more good base stealers? I don’t know for certain , but I have a strong feeling that there is a good deal of the former at work here. Regardless, there’s still a great deal of improvement which could be had by many teams.

It could also be saying that the AL east GMs are not doing a good job of developing pitchers who know how to hold runners and catchers who do not know how to throw runners out since 3 of the 7 teams are from that division. Plus the top team in this stat will miss the playoffs. Mariners and Marlins will too. And odds are yankees won't either. And if yankees do it probably means that either Boston or Tampa faltered so still 4 of the 7 are non playoff teams. Sketchy evidence that this is the way to win.

Card chances are directly proportional to OB + slugging, divide the numbers above by 216

That's not right -- SLG is based on AB, and OBP is based on PA. So you can't add them together and divide by 108 or 216, because AB will not equal 108 or 216 (PA will), so the SLG you get is too low. I'd do the math but I can't read the board-game version of the cards.

I think, but I'm not sure, that the 7 pitcher's card has a better OPS than the 8.

Fascinating stuff guys. How important is it to have someone who does not have many ground ball A chances on their card batting second? Someone mentioned they put their best true hitter second in the lineup as opposed to third, but what if that guy has a ton of ground ball As on his card. Also, what about having a positive clutch hitter 5th? I like to have speed and OBP in the one hole and speed in the 9th spot as well.

The double plays could definitely be a factor. Derek Jeter is a perfect example of that right now in real baseball. Even if he goes back to hitting .300, he's a double play machine, and double plays with no one out erase big innings.

Clowntime --you are correct about the walks effecting slg, & batting avg too. you should subtract the walks.

Pitchers Hitting cards all have 3 or 4 BB so they can be compared to each other as a group. The slg. and avg. should go up in the area of .01 for 4 BB--if it were a Ruth card with 30-40 walks on the card--a big difference there.

It is the 5 Hitting card that has more OBpct than the 8--and I think the 4 beats the 7 very slightly also when it comes to pure ob pct.

Clowntime --you are correct about the walks effecting slg, & batting avg too. you should subtract the walks.

Pitchers Hitting cards all have 3 or 4 BB so they can be compared to each other as a group. The slg. and avg. should go up in the area of .01 for 4 BB--if it were a Ruth card with 30-40 walks on the card--a big difference there.

It is the 5 Hitting card that has more OBpct than the 8--and I think the 4 beats the 7 very slightly also when it comes to pure ob pct.

So could somebody fugure out the OPS for each, or point me to cards I can read or explain the old cards?

This is more of a response to why you would want to bat your pitcher 8th regardless of his ability to hit. Somewhat of an oversimplification but I believe it holds water.

I would prefer not to have my lowest on base pct guy (the pitcher) batting directly in front of my very best hitters (1-4). If you put a guy who is more likely to get on base than the pitcher in the 9 hole then you should score more runs.

Some might say that you cost yourself more runs by batting the pitcher 8th due to more instances of the pitcher batting with runners in scoring position. I disagree with that premise because your six and seven hole hitters are not generally the high ob guys so there are usually fewer rbi opportunities for the 8 hole hitter than there are run scoring opportunities for the 9 hole hitter.

I also believe your best base stealer should bat six or seven because the bottom of the order is where you need to manufacture runs by stealing, bunting, hit/running etc so a speed demon can get you more runs at the bottom of the order than in the 1 hole. Who wants to run in front of your power hitters anyway?

This is more of a response to why you would want to bat your pitcher 8th regardless of his ability to hit. Somewhat of an oversimplification but I believe it holds water.

I would prefer not to have my lowest on base pct guy (the pitcher) batting directly in front of my very best hitters (1-4). If you put a guy who is more likely to get on base than the pitcher in the 9 hole then you should score more runs.

Some might say that you cost yourself more runs by batting the pitcher 8th due to more instances of the pitcher batting with runners in scoring position. I disagree with that premise because your six and seven hole hitters are not generally the high ob guys so there are usually fewer rbi opportunities for the 8 hole hitter than there are run scoring opportunities for the 9 hole hitter.

I also believe your best base stealer should bat six or seven because the bottom of the order is where you need to manufacture runs by stealing, bunting, hit/running etc so a speed demon can get you more runs at the bottom of the order than in the 1 hole. Who wants to run in front of your power hitters anyway?

The flip side is the bottom part of the lineup gets far fewer opportunities to bat.