joethejet wrote:GB,
I'm curious how you adjust for fielding.
I follow the overall flow of what DeanTSC does in his paper. Whatever the batting card results are using the points, I then mentally adjust for that player's defensive abilities. I use some player aids, like the fielding chart analysis that DeanTSC developed (it's in the form of a spreadsheet, which I can also email to people - that is the X chart analysis - esp. helpful with error probabilities). Re the x chart, I've also developed some quick math aids in my mind.
So for David Ortiz actually playing at 1b, for example, I would adjust something like this (not on my spreadsheet - just in my mind) -
OK - whatever his run production card looks like, for the ballpark (Yankee stadium) - don't have my spreadsheet handy, but it's maybe about 185 - a big number anyway.
From that I subtract (let's say) a defensive run differential compared to a normal good fielding 1b - let's say a 1b-3 e 11.
Ortiz is a 1b-5 e16, defensively.
For the range adjustment, I say that the difference per X chart reading is .2 for base hits (a 5 range versus a 3 range, .2 difference). I multiply the .2 by 2 for the number of die roll results for 1b X chart readings on the pitcher card. So that's .4. I multiply that number times 2 again for the run production value of a single - so now its .8. I multiply that number by 10 for the number of times (approx.) that you will have die roll opportunities on defense compared to die roll opportunities on offense. Theoretically I should be multiplying by 9 in a perfect baseball world, since there are theoretically 9 defensive outs for every at bat. I use 10 for a few reasons - to include the GBA differential in fielding (in a VERY rough way), to reward good fielders who might hit in the bottom of the order and have fewer plate appearances, etc. So now the fielding adjustment is .8 times 10, or 8.
I don't have the fielding spreadsheet handy for errors, but my "quick method" for errors at 1b, 3b and the outfield is to simply take the e-rating difference and just use that straight up. When you crunch it out precisely, this quick method works well in my system. The quick method at 2b and SS is to take the erating difference divided by 2.
So, compared to a 1b-3 e11, the difference in erating is 5 - e16-e11. So now the total fielding adjustment for Ortiz is 8 plus 5, or 13 in total.
So if Ortiz's run production is 185, then I subtract 13 for fielding, and the net run production number for Ortiz is 172. That is the relevant number for comparison to other batters at 1b.
2 things stand out for me in this example. You could play me (myself) at 1b and it wouldn't kill you defensively most of the time in strat. Just the odd occasion when you hit those 2 die roll chances on the pitcher card, or in bunt/infield in situations. Secondly, the worst 1b fielders are guys with the e26 (or e29) error ratings. You can get away with a guy like Ortiz because his e rating isn't all that bad.
And that's how I do it. The key thing for me is that I have the fielding stuff reduced to some easy to remember numeric adjustments in my head, so I can do the fielding adjustments quickly.
Mon Sep 09, 2013 10:58 am
