Is there someone here who's good at reading 'mystery cards'?

I'm in a 60s league (24 games in) and I can guess (or at least narrow down) a couple of my players, but I don't know about the majority of my team - which version I got saddled with.

Is 24 games too early to really tell?

Or if it isn't, if I post my roster, would someone be able to help me out? Either by deciphering (or by explaining things so I can decipher myself).

Thanks!

Hey Schwabdude...I bumped a thread titled "Help Reading Mystery Cards" for you. That thread has everything I've got...

Much appreciated Jimmy_C!

I took a shot at reading some of my cards - would you be able to check my rationale?

Minnie Minoso:
Game 3 - hit by Aker - RHP - 2
Game 5 - hit by Koufax - LHP - 1
Game 5 - hit by Selma - RHP - 2
Game 27 - hit by Pierce - LHP - 5

The only card with a 5 HBP by a LHP is the '63 Washington Senators card. Which really sucks since it's his worst card (by far) and a major threat to get hurt. Although he's hitting .327 so far (after 27 games).

Pete Rose:
Game 19 - hit by Cardwell - RHP - 6

I ruled out 1966 because against RHP he has no HBP on his card (although I don't see a '6' on any of his cards against RHP corresponding to getting hit).

Brooks Robinson:
Game 6 - hit by Seaver - RHP - 5
Game 1 - injured 3 games - against Spahn (LHP) - 2 lineout
Only 2 of his cards have injuries where he can be hurt more than the rest of a game; this is his '68 card.

Ernie Banks:
Game 25 - injured 3 games - against Lemaster (LHP) - 2 lineout
This is his '62 card.

Tommy John:
Injured for 5 games in Game 8, and for 2 games in Game 24.

Given multiple injuries, I'm going with '72 (the only year he had less than 30 starts).

Phil Regan:
2 1 0 2 14.2 24 18 15 7 11 3 0 0 6 1WR 9.20 2.11

Based on these stats, I would think it's his crappy card (1970 - or maybe 1969 - sure doesn't look like a year when he was with the Dodgers, given that I'm in an extreme pitcher's park.

Minoso. I'm not sure, but I think you're looking at the pitch count number and equating it to the dice roll. The mystery card games do not give you the dice roll. The fact that he got hit four times and not injured strongly suggests (but doesn't guarantee) a season other than '63.

Rose. The HBP rules out '66; he doesn't have a HBP that season.

Robinson. The lineout injury does indeed indicate his '68 card. The HBP you cite would have ruled out '62 since he doesn't have a HBP that season.

Banks. Yes, '62.

John. He could be '65 or '72. Number of starts is irrelevant. What's relevant is he has under 200 IP those season; his 200+ IP seasons are limited to 3-game injuries. If your league uses the DH, you would be able to tell which season if he got hurt against a left-handed batter since a 6-12 is a strikeout for John's '72 card and a gb X result of his '65 card. (A 6-12 roll injures the pitcher is the DH is batting.)

Regan. Maybe. However, read my thread below on "A tale of two relief pitchers." Judging a player based on performance for a limited number of ABs or IPs is prone to some colossal errors. An example is I picked up Yaz who promptly went 0-for-13 in his first series. Later, I was able to determine I had his best card. (Fortunately, I kept him.) I'm not saying you can't use performance to judge, but it is the most difficult part of the game to get the feel when to pull the trigger based solely on how a player is doing. IMHO, most managers are too quick to cut an underperforming player.

I think the numbers you see and are quoting in your post are not what you think they are. The line does not tell you the roll of the dice. It tells you the pitch number-which is a completely useless stat.

Unless I am wrong.

Ah. Thanks. I thought something wasn't right when I was looking at the Minoso's. 4 HBP does concern me a little, but thankfully he hasn't missed any time (and he's hitting over .300). None of that really jived with his '63 card.

Did not realize that was the pitch count number... kind of seems like a useless stat (this is my first mystery league - I plead ignorance on that).

Glad I at least figured out which Banks/Robinson I had, and that I'm on the right track with Rose/John.

Regan I recognize that I'm only 1/6th of the way through the season, and hope he turns it around. I see people dumping players every day in my league - no patience at all it seems (I don't know if being 17-10 on the strength of my pitching is why I'm patiently waiting).

I'm not seeing much more on my team that would enable me to know with certainty who I have.

My roster, should anyone be so inclined to prove otherwise:
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1115207

PS Thanks for the feedback / comments!

Ok, I just had to try a few more of these. There's definitely less certainty here (not using primary metrics), but feel free to read along and critique my thoughts.

Minoso:
Hitting .359 off RH, and .270 off LH, with 3 triples. In 1959, he had no triples. Should I rule out '59? Based on his splits against LH/RH pitching, I thought it would be either 1959 (1R) or 1960 (2R), so I am leaning towards it being his 1960 year.

Groat:
Hitting .429 off LH, and .179 off RH. Enough to rule out his 3R card from 1964?

Mazeroski:
Hitting .205 off LH, .297 off RH. Narrowed it down to either 1961 (1R) or 1963 (3R).

Drysdale:
Lefties hit .210, righties .237. ERA of 2.20, WHIP of 1.10. Thought it was his 1963 card (E), given that his '66 (1L) card has an ERA of almost 1.5 runs higher.

Peters:
Lefties hit .097, righties .199. ERA of 1.35, WHIP of 0.98. Looks like 1964 (5L) or 1965 (4L).

Horlen:
Lefties hit .238, righties .226. ERA of 3.26, WHIP of 1.09. Looks like 1968 (2R) - all his other years he seems to have done better against LH hitters.

John:
Previously narrowed down to either 1965 or 1972 due to injury.

Lefties hit .200, righties .280. ERA of 3.00, WHIP of 1.20. Couldn't narrow it further (1965 - E or 1972 - 1L).

"Maybe" to all of the above. You're really on your own once you try to judge based on performance; there is no right or wrong. There is evidence to support the years you think they have, but the evidence is only circumstantial.

I do caution you about reading too much into triples, however. Just because a hitter didn't hit any for a given year, don't expect that he won't get any in SOM.

Thanks. I do realize basing information on L/R splits, and triples after 27 games wasn't the best way of going about it, and is certainly not a sure thing.

But the threads here definitely helped - a lot. And I appreciate all the advice/feedback!

We'll see how things progress and how right my analysis is. I don't really want anyone to get injured for me to find out too soon (getting HBP when it's not resulting in an injury I can live with)!