NLD 34 - Here we go again

Not sure what the issue is DJ, I just set proxies successfully so I think the site is ok. Maybe try a different web browser?

You shouldn't be skipped IMO because you are trying to make the pick. Its not your fault the site is giving you trouble. I don't mind waiting at all in a situation like this.

I am using a browser I always use. Actually, we can just skip me until I figure out what's up or get to a different computer. I pretty much busted out my cap figure already so there isn't much that I'll be picking that anyone else will be going after.

Glad my proxies kept us moving.

DJ, that's really weird. Have you tried clearing your cache and such? Have you contacted Adrian?

Site still says 'skipped' for DJ. I'm not gonna pick until this gets fixed.

I guess that makes sense Big M.

In draft news, two RH hitting parks went. Very interesting.

Guys, I'd better pick. I'm going out and won't have great access. DJ did say skip him.

DJ, you can only take a player who <= .85 to get under the cap. Adrian says you're tryign to pick a player who's too expensive and it won't let you do that.

Big M, pick. I'm not sure any of the rest of us are goign to take guys that cheap right now.

Man,

You guys are KILLING me these last two rounds. Between guys taking players who I didn't think fit their park and guys taking positions they already have, I'm gonig to be scrambling.

Dag Gum Hawk, Thornton was proxied as my pick this round, really needed him.

Having the *SP starter means you can plan it as you go a little bit more, and maybe get a few more of the good matchups, and a couple fewer of the bad matchups.

In the ATG format, you're likely to get more bad matchups than good ones. Why wouldn't you just add a sub-$1M 5th starter?

I don't play much ATG, so I don't really know about that. According to my calculations, when I have a starter like Paulino starting against a team with 6 or more RH batters, that can be a severe disadvantage. More often, it's having a lefty pitcher starting against a team with heavily L balanced hitters, including platoon lefty killers.

I agree that having a low salary extra starter (I'll say a 6th starter) is another way to skin the cat - i.e. to get the best matchup. My problem with that alternative is that, according to my calcs, the cheap starter ("sub $1 million") is so much worse than the usual rotation starters (not just the guy your skipping, but even that bad matchup SP) that it just doesn't seem to make sense. I.e. the cure is often worse than the disease, according to my estimates. So that's why I like the *SP starter.

I have only just started to do this, but when I've been looking for alternatives for SP or RP at a certain $ level, I've done the run production calculations for a bunch of pitchers within say $1 million of salary. The results are usually so consistent (in terms of $/effectiveness) that you could plot them on a graph -effectiveness versus $ - and the inferred line would represent the data point dots very, very nicely. I can also explain the deviations, at least conceptually, in terms of other variables, like "hold", WP or balks, defense or pitcher's hitting strength. Not mathematically, but conceptually. In any case, the deviations are not significant.

My point is that when I do the math on cheap starters, I come to one consistent conclusion - that you just simply get what you pay for (not surprisingly). So the only way I would prefer cheap specialty starters is when I can start them against a very extreme batting lineup, with a very extreme balance or handedness advantage for the pitcher. But even then, I think the better solution, at a reasonable and efficient cost, is just to be able start a SP* starter in such a way as to get the better matchups.

I'll try to give you an example with my math, in the next week or so, to show my thinking with numbers.