Sat Oct 26, 2013 3:48 pm
I have used Ortiz at 1b ocassionally. He's 1b-5 e16 . I'm not a fan of this, but I've done it.
However, Butler would be worse by a bit, due to his e26 error rating. Basically, that means in a full season he'll make about 10 more errors than Ortiz would playing at 1b every day. That's on top of the 5 range rating. With Butler, you'll get a large number of "single and error" results, when both fielding deficiencies kick in on a 1bX roll.
The last time I looked it up, I think an e26 range rating would result in an error about 40% of the time (much higher than other e ratings that are in the teens). A 5 range rating would result in a single 40% of the time. The odds of getting an out are roughly 36%, a single (only) roughly 24%, an error (only) roughly 24%, and a single an error together roughly 16% of the 1bX rolls. The total bases given up on fielding would be about 8 for every 10 1bX rolls, or .8 per 1bX roll.
If you face 42 opposing batters per game (for easy math), then the odds of rolling a 1bX are about 1 out of 2.5 each game (42 * 2 /216), or roughly 40% per game. (The times 2 is for the number of die rolls per 216 that a 1bx reading appears in on every pitcher card; the 216 is the total die roll chances for a 3 die roll, including batting cards and pitcher cards). On average, the bases given up per game would be about .32 bases per game (.4 times .8). If Butler bats 5 times a game, that's the equivalent of "losing" .064 bases per plate appearance. In batting average terms, that's like losing 64 batting points per plate appearance - like converting a .310 average to a .246 average - just because he's playing 1b and not DH. (actually, it's less than that, since a "normal" 1b would also give up some hits and errors, so let's say that the "loss" of base hits is half that amount, or .032, which reduces a .310 average to a .278 average).
In short - not nearly as good value for money as he is at DH.
