The Secret Formula: Theory in Action: Update - CHAMPS!

This thread is one of the most interesting reads on the boards!

This thread is one of the most interesting reads on the boards!

I have to agree Steve! There is a wealth of knowledge in this thread!! Thanks J-PAV!!!!

Here comes the punch line ...

My first two teams were standard, best practices type autodrafts with all the usual handwringing, wailing and gnashing of teeth. How I managed to win rings with performances like Travis "Two and Sixteen" Blackley is beyond me.

Then I started reading the posts about how everything is wrong with the SOM autodraft and how unfair it all is that you can't get the guys you want. HAL's replacement picks are inadequate. The draft should serpentine. You should have three deep proxy picks. The draft should be like the one at joeblow'sbaseball.com.

So here's what I did. I drafted the 11 pitchers ranked by worst WHIPs priced at 0.50. Then I drafted the 14 fifty-cent hitters ranked by worst OPS. I got all of them ! Then, I sat out the waiver process. Then, I waited until just before the season started and drafted my full team from the FA pool. I did this three separate times with neutral and pitcher friendly type ballparks. The results have been beyond surprising.

But surely this wouldn't work with a LH specialty park like Progressive ?? My fourth attempt is the one from my previous post. EVERY player on that team was picked from the FA pool after every other manager completed their autodraft and waivers. I did get a little lucky that there wasn't like four other Progressive teams. However, I wouldn't have wasted a credit trying if I didn't see from the other three attempts that it looked like it would be pretty doable. I was actually looking forward to trying out some new guys for a change. Instead, I probably drafted my strongest Progressive team to date (of course, we'll have to see what HAL says - peace be upon him).

So, to bring this full circle. I would have loved getting Hamilton, Moss, Fielder and/or Snider with Headley, Zobrist and/or Laroche. But the truth is I really didn't care because there is a gigantic number of options which all lead to the same place.

The biggest benefit you had was knowing every ballpark and crafting your teams with a pocket full of cash. This is one reason I would love to see the process change so ballparks are selected post-draft, but pre-waiver.

Here comes the punch line ...

My first two teams were standard, best practices type autodrafts with all the usual handwringing, wailing and gnashing of teeth. How I managed to win rings with performances like Travis "Two and Sixteen" Blackley is beyond me.

Then I started reading the posts about how everything is wrong with the SOM autodraft and how unfair it all is that you can't get the guys you want. HAL's replacement picks are inadequate. The draft should serpentine. You should have three deep proxy picks. The draft should be like the one at joeblow'sbaseball.com.

So here's what I did. I drafted the 11 pitchers ranked by worst WHIPs priced at 0.50. Then I drafted the 14 fifty-cent hitters ranked by worst OPS. I got all of them ! Then, I sat out the waiver process. Then, I waited until just before the season started and drafted my full team from the FA pool. I did this three separate times with neutral and pitcher friendly type ballparks. The results have been beyond surprising.

But surely this wouldn't work with a LH specialty park like Progressive ?? My fourth attempt is the one from my previous post. EVERY player on that team was picked from the FA pool after every other manager completed their autodraft and waivers. I did get a little lucky that there wasn't like four other Progressive teams. However, I wouldn't have wasted a credit trying if I didn't see from the other three attempts that it looked like it would be pretty doable. I was actually looking forward to trying out some new guys for a change. Instead, I probably drafted my strongest Progressive team to date (of course, we'll have to see what HAL says - peace be upon him).

So, to bring this full circle. I would have loved getting Hamilton, Moss, Fielder and/or Snider with Headley, Zobrist and/or Laroche. But the truth is I really didn't care because there is a gigantic number of options which all lead to the same place.

Excellent post to top an excellent thread, Jpav. Even though you drafted Moss #2-- --you did an excellent job showing the pre-autodraft and post-autodraft options available in building a solid team in the current draft system.

The biggest benefit you had was knowing every ballpark and crafting your teams with a pocket full of cash. This is one reason I would love to see the process change so ballparks are selected post-draft, but pre-waiver.

I agree that there's a benefit to seeing every ballpark, however, I don't draft my teams with that as a consideration. I generally draft my teams to perform best in a 10-10-10-10 ballpark (more or less the usual total league average). When I'm done with the autodraft portion, I just look at who I'm chasing after player wise and give them their best stadium fit. So I don't pick Progressive and load up on lefties, I load up on lefties and pick Progressive. The distinction being that I expect my team of lefties to play nearly equally well in AT&T.

The liberating thing about sitting out the draft and waivers is seeing the available player pool for what it's worth. Let's say I want Trout as my number one (I'm too tired of Moss!), and I don't get him. And let's say Ichiro is the next best option in the FA pool at CF. You will go bat guano crazy trying to shoehorn Ichiro into a team designed that way. I would argue that it would be better to vaporize the entire roster and start from scratch, utilizing what the pool is giving you. But I don't think most guys operate this way. They think, "Well, I went Trout-Snider 1-2, I missed my number one and I'm not giving up my number two" even though they already have a great RF and Braun is available in the FA pool (yes, I realize that Snider can DH etc etc). The point is to capture the best available roster for the money, not to make your initial interpretation of the draft work no matter what.

The part about the ballparks being selected post-draft, but pre-waiver, I'm not sure I totally follow. I would rather see no autodraft, HAL assigns random (but fair) rosters and stadiums, and the manager has to trade, drop and juggle to build their team. These situations where guys want every pick they autodraft complete with matching stadium and completely mismatched and disadvantaged competition seems a little weird to me.

A fun experiment might be to let six guys custom build their rosters so they get every single player they want in the stadium of their choice. The other six guys would just autodraft and do waivers like normal, or sit it out and just pick from the FA pool. My guess is that with six veterans picking from the pool, the league would still be as competitive as a tour league, with a fairly small bell curve around 81 wins.

Steve, Skip, I.strether, et al - thanks!

Obviously as a n00b I am missing something here. I don't understand how you pick the ballpark after the draft. I thought the park had to be picked before proceeding to "join a league"

Obviously as a n00b I am missing something here. I don't understand how you pick the ballpark after the draft. I thought the park had to be picked before proceeding to "join a league"

you don't. The moral of the story is it may be a good strategy to pick a neutral ballpark and then build your team from the waiver wire and free agent pool. (assuming a 12 team league)

I agree that there's a benefit to seeing every ballpark, however, I don't draft my teams with that as a consideration. I generally draft my teams to perform best in a 10-10-10-10 ballpark (more or less the usual total league average). When I'm done with the autodraft portion, I just look at who I'm chasing after player wise and give them their best stadium fit. So I don't pick Progressive and load up on lefties, I load up on lefties and pick Progressive. The distinction being that I expect my team of lefties to play nearly equally well in AT&T.

But if the pool gave them to you, would you load up on righties in a Progressive type BP? Doesn't seem like that would work. Additionally, if you draft players to perform best in a 10-10 etc, that kind of team may not perfom well at AT&T?

Steve,

It's a little hard to answer that with only a hypothetical FA pool. My answer, I guess, is that it depends. Having committed to Progressive, I would want to give every consideration to any high OPS lefty bats first; however, that wouldn't preclude me from batting five RH batters though, if I thought that was the best option.

Among the first bits of veteran advice I got in this game came from Riggo, who told me to make high scoring Petco teams a specialty. When you can score runs in a pitchers park, your team will score anywhere. But the reverse is not necessarily true. Big hitter teams can be completely muzzled in Petco. Most managers do not understand this as well as they should.