2013 cards - estimating Chris Davis' 2013 card

Compare 2013 Davis offensively to 2012 Encarnacion ($8.61M)- about the same avg and OBA.

Davis more HR power, far more bias towards RHP.
Davis 673 PAs probably a solid green 1 to E.E.'s slanted 1.
Davis probably a 4 at first base compared to a 3.

Just a hunch, but I would guess that Crash is not much higher than $9M. Too one-dimensional.

Compare 2013 Davis offensively to 2012 Encarnacion ($8.61M)- about the same avg and OBA.

Davis more HR power, far more bias towards RHP.
Davis 673 PAs probably a solid green 1 to E.E.'s slanted 1.
Davis probably a 4 at first base compared to a 3.

Just a hunch, but I would guess that Crash is not much higher than $9M. Too one-dimensional.

Cards are rated for a 30/70 L/R split, so cards that are better vs RH vs LH pitching will be more expensive. One sided towards LHP is always cheaper.

"With those projected card readings for Davis, per the site, do those "chances" for hits, OB, and home runs include the ballpark effect chances?"

I believe they do.

FWIW- Goldschmidt will be a monster both ways. And they are predicting a 1 for him @ first.

I find the discussion on Davis an interesting one. He hit 13 HRs against lefties and drove in 45. If he puts up exactly the same numbers against RH pitching he posts about 22 HRs and drives in about 76. That totals 35 HRs and 121 RBI and he is considered a well rounded hitter. But because instead he hit 40 HRs and drove in 93 against RH hitters he is considered one sided hitter.

Not sure what his price will end up being. Probably not highest in set. But do not believe comparision to Moss to be good. Moss was almost useless except as a platoon. Davis will not have to be platooned.

Crush''s split was .315/.415/.728 vs righties and .235/.289/.475 against lefties.

very interesting, gbrookes -- I wonder if you could look at Ty Cobb's 1911 card and explain why there are so many strike-out chances for a guy who had only 43 SO that year in 654 PAs? (I know, I know -- different forum) -- I've got him on a team right now where after 36 games, he's on track for 144 SO -- even in ATG, that's just stupid

very interesting, gbrookes -- I wonder if you could look at Ty Cobb's 1911 card and explain why there are so many strike-out chances for a guy who had only 43 SO that year in 654 PAs? (I know, I know -- different forum) -- I've got him on a team right now where after 36 games, he's on track for 144 SO -- even in ATG, that's just stupid

I looked it up. Using the method I described in the original post, Cobb's card doesn't make sense with respect to strikeouts. I didn't look up L-R splits, but his card should have no strikeouts on it according to my calcs.

I haven't spent a lot of time on all time greats yet - just a little. Here's a wild guess on my part - that maybe - for cards before a certain year or chronological date - maybe they just used a normal distribution of typical types of ratios of outs, for every player. Otherwise, I can't make sense of that.

Here's some other 2013 card estimates I worked on - Ellsbury, and Span.

Ellsbury:
These numbers are my **estimates** of the die roll chances on the batter cards for 2013 (not including ballpark singles or ballpark homeruns):

Vs lhp

Hbp 2
Walks 9
Singles 12.75
Doubles 1.8
Triples .55
Homeruns 1.86
W power

Vs rhp

Hbp 2
Walks 6
Singles 26.55
Doubles 7.15
Triples 3.4
Homeruns .65
Power N
1 ballpark homerun chance

Est balance - 6R

Span

Vs lhp

Hbp 1
Walks 7
Singles 17
Doubles .45
Triples .55
Homeruns 0
Power - W

Vs rhp

Hbp 1
Walks 4
Singles 21.65
Doubles 4.55
Triples 4.05
Homeruns 1.8
Power W (of course, no ballpark homerun chances with W power)

estimated balance - 4R

** please bear in mind that these are just my own personal estimates. The cards that strat creates will certainly be different, and maybe different by a lot. **

wow...

interesting exercise

this is what I got out of it....

somebody needs to get laid

Lol!