NLD 34 - Here we go again

Can anyone check Neil Walker's card for PED or HGH?

Can anyone check Neil Walker's card for PED or HGH?

Take a card like his and play him in Coors and in a division with other hitter friendly parks against only RHP and good things will happen.

Can anyone check Neil Walker's card for PED or HGH?

Take a card like his and play him in Coors and in a division with other hitter friendly parks against only RHP and good things will happen.

Let us look at the numbers through 66 games

Walker
His card vs RHPs:

H: 25.1
OB: 35.2
TB: 41.3
HR: 3.2
BPHRs: 6

Neil's results:

BA: .332
OBP: .418
SLG: .641

Rolls (H/P): 98:109
Ballpark FX (S/HR): 4:13 / 4:6
Clutch: 2
L/R Splits (ABs): 17 / 164

Now compare to Kipnis

H: 23.5
OB: 37.5
TB: 31.9
HR: 1.5
BPHRs: 2

Results

BA: .190
OBP: .272
SLG: .213

Rolls (H/P): 98:90
Ballpark FX (S/HR): 2:7 / 0:2
Clutch: 1
L/R Splits (ABs): 13 / 161

The two cards aren't that far apart against RHPs and the ball park effects aren't a primary difference in Neil's success.

So, I can only conclude Neil's card is benefited by PEDs or HGH!

Can anyone check Neil Walker's card for PED or HGH?

Take a card like his and play him in Coors and in a division with other hitter friendly parks against only RHP and good things will happen.

Let us look at the numbers through 66 games

Walker
His card vs RHPs:

H: 25.1
OB: 35.2
TB: 41.3
HR: 3.2
BPHRs: 6

Neil's results:

BA: .332
OBP: .418
SLG: .641

Rolls (H/P): 98:109
Ballpark FX (S/HR): 4:13 / 4:6
Clutch: 2
L/R Splits (ABs): 17 / 164

Now compare to Kipnis

H: 23.5
OB: 37.5
TB: 31.9
HR: 1.5
BPHRs: 2

Results

BA: .190
OBP: .272
SLG: .213

Rolls (H/P): 98:90
Ballpark FX (S/HR): 2:7 / 0:2
Clutch: 1
L/R Splits (ABs): 13 / 161

The two cards aren't that far apart against RHPs and the ball park effects aren't a primary difference in Neil's success.

So, I can only conclude Neil's card is benefited by PEDs or HGH!

Actually I don't think the cards are as close as you make it sound....especially the TB count and the HR count including the # hr's. I have actuals of the two over 10 seasons with both in Coors, the data is at home, I'll post later if I get a chance.

Yeah, I think there are park and card differences, BUT, I would also say that Walker is a bit high and Kipnis a bit low.

Yeah, I think there are park and card differences, BUT, I would also say that Walker is a bit high and Kipnis a bit low.

Agreed.

Actually I don't think the cards are as close as you make it sound....especially the TB count and the HR count including the # hr's. I have actuals of the two over 10 seasons with both in Coors, the data is at home, I'll post later if I get a chance.

Let's go to the tape

Strat card values
H: Advantage Walker +1.6
OBP: Advantage Kipnis +2.3

Simulation results (66 games)
Hitter rolls: 98 each
Pitcher rolls: Walker 109 vs. Kipnis 90 (advantage Kipnis)

LHPs: Walker 17 vs. Kipnis 13 (advantage Kipnis)
RHPs: Walker 164 vs. Kipnis 161 (advantage Walker)

Walker
Home (Walker): .367 BA .456 OBP .694 SLG
Home (Team avg): .293 / .386 / .542
Away (Walker): .289 / .372 / .578
Away (Team avg): .251 / .347 / .464

Kipnis
Home (Kipnis): .157 BA .220 OBP .181 SLG
Home (Team avg): .264 / .331 / .423
Away (Kipnis): .220 / .317 / .242
Away (Team avg): .239 / .311 / .374

I agree on the expected outcomes for Walker's Coors fueled HRs and extra singles (so far just 2 extra) results. Yet, Kipnis' OBP results shouldn't be that far off from an expected outcome.

It has to be the shoes then

Can anyone check Neil Walker's card for PED or HGH?

Take a card like his and play him in Coors and in a division with other hitter friendly parks against only RHP and good things will happen.

Let us look at the numbers through 66 games

Walker
His card vs RHPs:

H: 25.1
OB: 35.2
TB: 41.3
HR: 3.2
BPHRs: 6

Neil's results:

BA: .332
OBP: .418
SLG: .641

Rolls (H/P): 98:109
Ballpark FX (S/HR): 4:13 / 4:6
Clutch: 2
L/R Splits (ABs): 17 / 164

Now compare to Kipnis

H: 23.5
OB: 37.5
TB: 31.9
HR: 1.5
BPHRs: 2

Results

BA: .190
OBP: .272
SLG: .213

Rolls (H/P): 98:90
Ballpark FX (S/HR): 2:7 / 0:2
Clutch: 1
L/R Splits (ABs): 13 / 161

The two cards aren't that far apart against RHPs and the ball park effects aren't a primary difference in Neil's success.

So, I can only conclude Neil's card is benefited by PEDs or HGH!

I have the 10 year actuals for the two....remember all parks are Coors in this sim. As I expected the results aren't close:

Kipnis vs. RHP:

BA: .306
SLG%: .475
OB%: .377
AB/HR: 4490/180


Walker Vs. RHP:

BA: .349
SLG%: .606
OB%: .418
AB/HR: 4425/272

Although neither excelled against LHP Walker still had the better numbers there as well:

BA: Walker .281 --Kipnis .248
SLG: Walker .330 --Kipnis .317
OB%: Walker .360 --Kipnis .329


So although Kipnis may be underperforming for you, Walker is not the guy he should be compared too! The two aren't really all that close. I think you may be underestimating the BPHR and its effect on not only SLG% but also OB%.

Out hit Hawk 20-7 in game 68 last night and lost 6-5. This team isn't getting any traction.

Yeah, I think there are park and card differences, BUT, I would also say that Walker is a bit high and Kipnis a bit low.

When Neil Walker has 3 more home runs (193 ABs; 4:6 BP fx) than Chase Headley (268 ABs; 7:11 BP fx) and 4 more than Miggy Cabrera (273 ABs; 3:7 BP fx) - I'd say Walker's favorable rolls are a gift from A-Rod.