NLD 34 - Here we go again

Look out for the defending 3 time champion....the Winnipeg Goldeyes are on a tear since picking up Alex Gordon who is hitting at a .406 clip and they are suddenly tied for 2nd in the league in run differential!

I'm so sick of playing one run games. Yeah, we're plus 3, but, frick, 38% of our games are one runners and it's so easy to see the breaks when you lose. Tonight, Rios costs me one on an X and Cozart the other.

Plus back-to-back 1-8 HRs and Venters and Perez can't get a LHB out. Period.

And Seager gets a Catch X WP (1-4) and given the reprieve hits a 1-8 HR (2b the rest).

I'm sure I've gotten these breaks too since I'm above .500 in one run games, but crud it wears on you night after night seeing a one run loss or game.

Semper has as many one run games (with a better record) and Zim and Jeep (sorry Jeep) are only a game behind so I'm sure they feel the same way or worse. Dang.

We have to be towards the top in LOB, we're 4th in Ave, 5th in OB, 8th in Slug and 9th in runs scored.

Game 71

Melky Cabrera INJURED (for 8 more games) in 3rd inning

Game 81

Melky Cabrera INJURED (for 8 more games) in 1st inning

Melky has as many INJ as Kipnis has HRs.

I'm so sick of playing one run games. Yeah, we're plus 3, but, frick, 38% of our games are one runners and it's so easy to see the breaks when you lose. Tonight, Rios costs me one on an X and Cozart the other.

Plus back-to-back 1-8 HRs and Venters and Perez can't get a LHB out. Period.

And Seager gets a Catch X WP (1-4) and given the reprieve hits a 1-8 HR (2b the rest).

I'm sure I've gotten these breaks too since I'm above .500 in one run games, but crud it wears on you night after night seeing a one run loss or game.

Semper has as many one run games (with a better record) and Zim and Jeep (sorry Jeep) are only a game behind so I'm sure they feel the same way or worse. Dang.

We have to be towards the top in LOB, we're 4th in Ave, 5th in OB, 8th in Slug and 9th in runs scored.

Joe,

I thought you'd be mad about this roll result

1 1 J.Morneau h&r Home Run (CF) 1-H b-H F9

Joe,

I thought you'd be mad about this roll result

1 1 J.Morneau h&r Home Run (CF) 1-H b-H F9

Looks like he rolled a HR on the pitcher's card. A big flaw in the SOM H&R mechanism. I think I read it as 1-9, not F9, so I figured he'd rolled it on his card.

It's not like I haven't had some breaks, it's just all these close games just wear on you.

Ratings should be out tonight. Based on Friday's numbers.

No one runners tonight! 8-0, 11-0, 12-4. Gotta love SOM when Lannan and Broxton "out duel" Lohse and Lopez. Funny.

Ok, on to the ratings. These are from Friday so I don't have Hawk's last moves in here or anything that happened the last three nights.

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Team...   O...   P...   F..   P+F.   Ovrl   Div
Corky..   8814   5883   573   6456   2359   C
BigMahn   7804   5002   484   5486   2318   C
JoeTJet   7784   4939   550   5489   2294   W
JeepDrv   7627   4998   364   5362   2265   E
Stoney.   8129   5247   634   5881   2248   C
SemperG   7743   4967   549   5516   2227   E
DurantJ   7998   5270   685   5955   2043   W
BigAlrc   7459   5216   203   5419   2040   C
nythawk   7635   5161   449   5610   2025   E
Gbrooke   7364   5185   459   5643   1720   W
ArrylTr   7611   5555   375   5930   1681   W
Zimmer.   7366   5295   398   5693   1674   E


Parks play a big part of this cuz hitter park teams usually have a better rating. That is, most team's ratings go up in a hitter's park, just how much more thant the opponent is the question. When I put up the park by park numbers it will be easiert to tell just how good Corky (for example) really is. Of course, he's in first so it might be pretty close.

So, the teams break into three "tiers" of ratings. Corky through Semper are all relatively close and I'm not sure the differences are all that great or criticial. Second teir is DJ, Big A and Hawk. All about the same. Finally, GB, AT and Zim trail the middle group by a good distance.

Ratings would say that the Centrail will be a beast with Corky, Big M and SToney all in the top five of ratings and battling it out. Big A is in the next tier, but ratings say it will be tough with that competition.

East should be Jeep and Semper. Hawk has an outside chance and Zim should fall short.

West Ratings say that JTJ should be the odds on favorite with DJ a dark horse and AT and GB behind.

As we know, things are a bit different. In the east, the one runners are making a big difference from the ratings. Jeep has been very bad and Hawk very good.

In the Central, Corky is right with his rating, but Big A is surprising. Big M is -9 in one runners explaining at least part of his position.

The West is a bit weird and is still wide open. OUr tam is underperforming across the board. AT is higher than his rating as usual. This is due, at least in part, to his usual match up pen. Can't really explain GB as he has zero offense and his pitching is middle of the pack. It's possible he's staying healthier than projected.

It must be noted that I adjusted each team's rating for the projected amount of LHSP they'll face since there are such large differences between divisions.

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Team Ov   Ovrl   Rtg   Rec   Dif   
Corky..   2359   3   2   1   C
BigMahn   2318   4   7   -3   C
JoeTJet   2294   4   5   -1   W
JeepDrv   2265   5   8   -3   E
Stoney.   2248   5   4   1   C
SemperG   2227   5   5   0   E
DurantJ   2043   7   4   3   W
BigAlrc   2040   7   4   3   C
nythawk   2025   7   2   5   E
Gbrooke   1720   9   6   3   W
ArrylTr   1681   9   4   5   W
Zimmer.   1674   9   7   2   E


As noted above, Jeep and Big M are low due to one run performance. Hawk high along with AT. DJ, Big A and GB are also higher than expected.

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Team Of   O   Rtg   Run   Dif   
Corky..   8814   2   2   0   C
Stoney.   8129   3   6   -3   C
DurantJ   7998   4   7   -3   W
BigMahn   7804   5   6   -1   C
JoeTJet   7784   6   9   -3   W
SemperG   7743   6   9   -3   E
nythawk   7635   7   6   1   E
JeepDrv   7627   8   10   -2   E
ArrylTr   7611   9   5   4   W
BigAlrc   7459   9   6   3   C
Zimmer.   7366   9   10   -1   E
Gbrooke   7364   11   7   4   W


Offensively Biggest differences are AT and GB with several teams (Stoney, DJ, JTJ, Semper) on the low side of their offense.

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Team PF   P+F   Rtg   Run   Dif   
JeepDrv   5362   1   4   -3   E
BigAlrc   5419   2   6   -4   C
BigMahn   5486   3   9   -6   C
JoeTJet   5489   3   5   -2   W
SemperG   5516   3   5   -2   E
nythawk   5610   5   3   2   E
Gbrooke   5643   6   4   2   W
Zimmer.   5693   7   5   2   E
Stoney.   5881   9   7   2   C
ArrylTr   5930   10   6   4   W
DurantJ   5955   10   5   5   W
Corky..   6456   12   10   2   C


AT and DJ are high, Big A and Big M much lower than expected with Jeep a bit low.

Didn't do fielding or park-by-park yet. Maybe tomorrow....

No one runners tonight! 8-0, 11-0, 12-4. Gotta love SOM when Lannan and Broxton "out duel" Lohse and Lopez. Funny.

8-3 btw...there weren't 2 shutouts. And I don't really see how its funny. Lannan and Broxton are both pretty good values and were facing a much inferior lineup to the one Lohse and Lopez were facing. Especially Lannan facing a team who is pretty bad against LHP.


Thanks for the ratings, although I think its clear some work still needs to be done. Teams in "hitter friendly" parks should not "tend to have higher ratings" unless those teams are indeed better. I wonder if this is just an opinion you have or if there is data to back that up. If there is than something needs to be adjusted to fix that.

Arryl's offensive rating appears quite low to me in relation to the lineup he has. gbrookes overall rating looks low as well. Also, in my opinion, you tend to place too much emphasis on 1 run games. There are reasons why teams lose them or win them other than luck. I don't think that's a great way to explain why a rating isn't close to real life result.

There has to be other factors that the ratings struggle to reflect such as stadium based platoons, 6 man starting rotations playing matchups etc.

Anyway, it was interesting to read and analyze. Thanks for sharing.

I'm 12 and 12 in one run games. I thought it was much worse than that. My road record is my downfall. If I was close to .500 I'd be in the mix.

No one runners tonight! 8-0, 11-0, 12-4. Gotta love SOM when Lannan and Broxton "out duel" Lohse and Lopez. Funny.

8-3 btw...there weren't 2 shutouts. And I don't really see how its funny. Lannan and Broxton are both pretty good values and were facing a much inferior lineup to the one Lohse and Lopez were facing. Especially Lannan facing a team who is pretty bad against LHP.

You're right about the 8-3. Sorry.

Come on Corky, Lannan is < 1 mil because he isn't very good. He's got a > 300 OB v RHB and my team isnt' bad v LHP. The OB may not be overpowering, but there are a good number of hits and extra base hits on those cards. Right now we're struggling v LHP beecause our platoon players, Montero and Nunez have struggled and rios shouldn't be this bad either. While you could say both of those two pitchers are "good values", it's still to suggest that they are anywhere near as good as the Lohse/Lopez combination. True your lineup is better, it's not *that* much better in my park. In fact, in our park, we have almost as much OB, more hits, more TBs and better clutch when comparing our lineup v LHP with yours v RHP. Anyway, if the score had been 12-8, I wouldnt' have said anything. It's just typical SOM where you throw a combined 10+ salary at < 2 and you lose. Just one of those anomalies. Happens in real life too.

Thanks for the ratings, although I think its clear some work still needs to be done. Teams in "hitter friendly" parks should not "tend to have higher ratings" unless those teams are indeed better. I wonder if this is just an opinion you have or if there is data to back that up. If there is than something needs to be adjusted to fix that.

Well, when I release the park-by-park it will make more sense. We saw that before with GBs home bound team. The reason ratings go up in hitter's parks is because there are more HRs on hitters cards so they get a bigger boost than the penalty for the pitchers. As I said, you have to consider that a team with more hitter BPHRs and fewer pitcher BPHRs will go up even more.

Arryl's offensive rating appears quite low to me in relation to the lineup he has. gbrookes overall rating looks low as well. Also, in my opinion, you tend to place too much emphasis on 1 run games. There are reasons why teams lose them or win them other than luck. I don't think that's a great way to explain why a rating isn't close to real life result.

AT's Offense isroughly about the same as Hawk and Jeep, just below average. It's is pulled down by his park and two of the other parks in the division and by the injury factors of three of his hitters. he is also very up and down v RHP with three really good, one so-so, four meh, and oen blah. V LHP he starts four guys how are W.

GB's O v both sides is pretty weak, literally, they have good OB and hits, but almost no power by design. Three W v RHP and Four v LHP. Again, the park impacts what you would expect in terms of offense. His D is average as is his pitching. Lousy offense with middling pitching is going to lead to a low rating. He his also hurt by hist best two hitters having high injury ratings.

One run games are a luck factor if you ask me. There doesn't seem to be a lot of rhyme or reason to having a good or bad record there. I've seen teams with good pens have lousy records and good records for example. I bet if you look at your 10 year sims you'll see a big variation. In any case, very frequently it explains a difference in the ratings, a very high correlation. So, it could just be that the ratings can't predict good one run teams, but, having played the game FTF for 40+ years, I think it's luck.

There has to be other factors that the ratings struggle to reflect such as stadium based platoons, 6 man starting rotations playing matchups etc.

Well, it makes assumptions about platoons for sure. The pitcher ratings assume a certain ratio of RH/LH so if that varies (as in AT's Pen) you will see anamolies. Normally the varations aren't that great.

Anyway, it was interesting to read and analyze. Thanks for sharing.

Glad you liked them. I enjoy the comments. Gives me things to chew on.

Game 71

Melky Cabrera INJURED (for 8 more games) in 3rd inning

Game 81

Melky Cabrera INJURED (for 8 more games) in 1st inning

Melky has as many INJ as Kipnis has HRs.

I had a very good year the last time I used Melky Cabrera and I felt if I took him again I might be snake bit - looks like you have been.