NLD 34 - Here we go again

Arryl's offensive rating appears quite low to me in relation to the lineup he has. gbrookes overall rating looks low as well. Also, in my opinion, you tend to place too much emphasis on 1 run games. There are reasons why teams lose them or win them other than luck. I don't think that's a great way to explain why a rating isn't close to real life result.

There has to be other factors that the ratings struggle to reflect such as stadium based platoons, 6 man starting rotations playing matchups etc.

Anyway, it was interesting to read and analyze. Thanks for sharing.

I would have to concur that I feel my offensive rating is lower than I thought you'd rate. I am actually very happy with my offense and I feel, other than Ethier, that everyone is performing to expectation. I expected my team to have a high AVG solid OBP and being #1 in AVG and #3 in OBP is about where I had hoped to be.

^^^ The ratings (and the comments) are very interesting.

I'm trying to recreate the kind of team that I used in the PC tournament, in events 1 and 2, where I just tried to maximize base hits, and minimize them from the pitching staff (and to some extent, fielding). I managed to get to successful teams out of that, despite being out-homered and badly out-walked. Basically it's kind of a science experiment to see if I can repeat the results.

Here are 2 of the teams that were successful:
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1104068
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1108073

For completeness, here are 2 more teams that used the same overall concept, with some success. The first one below missed the playoffs with a slight positive run differential and slight winning record. The second team below had more success:

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1110347
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1114055

The only PC team that was NOT that successful was a team in event 4 ($100 million cap) where I tried to make a team like the Bronx Bombers from NLD33! Unfortunately, 11 of the 12 managers tried to do roughly the same thing, and I just didn't get the strategy to work as well for me in PC4! Here it is:

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/1114101

Again, for that team (just above), I did NOT try the base hit surplus strategy.

As you know, I didn't get off to a very good start in this NLD34. I concluded that my L-R balance was off, and probably had too little emphasis on the batters. As joe pointed out before the season started, I had a huge amount invested in my starting pitchers. I came to the conclusion that it was just too much, even for a team playing in a non-HR park. Those dollars were needed to try to improve my hitting vs. RHP - hello Alex Gordon. By having more $ in the lineup everyday, it gives me a better chance to win from game to game. Bass hasn't hurt me too badly yet, either, although that can happen a few times yet. My bullpen has also suffered from all the $ that went to my SP's, and I think that has hurt my record in 1 run games, possibly (not so good).

But, the comments to joe's ratings are interesting. I am really intrigued to see whether in a non-HR park the value of singles and doubles can be high enough to consistently overcome a deficiency in walks and homeruns. I just think that this is a fascinating question. I know it has to be play-tested multiple times - that you can't necessarily draw conclusions quickly from 1 or 2 seasons. That's why I'm kinda keen to try it out again, and perhaps keep trying it out in various venues. I won't be such a bore as to play the same format in the NLD time after time, but I will keep using it here and there to see how it goes!

By the way, Votto had an 8 game "double" streak going, which ended in the third game last night!

Love this game!
Geoff

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For AT, I stand by the ratings. No way in heck that team in that set of parks should be #2 in runs scored. With a team like AT's, and for that matter mine, timing is everything. As I pointed out earlier, I'm below all my offensive stats in terms of runs scored comparison.

Let's look at the two teams discussed above and compare to Hotlanta. For these purposes we'll use the combination of the three teams parks. But playing 12 games in their home park instead of 81. The parks end up being between 9 and 10 in all four categories.

V RHP

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TM   OBR   h/108   Slug   Clt   hrR   bpR   Hit R
AT   .401   .315   .502   .294   2.79   2.44   878
JT   .392   .305   .517   .267   2.60   3.00   892
GB   .412   .313   .454   .330   1.54   1.67   865


The overall Offensive rating, which includes SBs, rates all three teams very close, but with GB definitely lower, but the other two teams roughly equal

Per their design AT and GB are higher in terms of OB and Ave. GB is particularly high in Clutch and he has six hits v 7 outs in the real thing. AT and JTJ have both been bad here, AT particularly despite the stats.

JTJ has the advantage in slugging of about the same margin as the other two have in OB/Ave. GB has very weak power. JTJ also has an advantage in terms of SBs, particularly when Pennington starts.

The other thing factoring in here is the fact that JTJ's best offensive players, Wright, Fielder, Hill have 600 PA or a 0 injury whereas AT has Ortiz, Jay and Keppinger with high injuries and GB has Votto and Ruiz. In fact, GB is very susceptible to injuries and has only 4 backups. AT at least has Bruan, A Ram and Ethier with 600 PA.

Facing LHP is much less important, especially for AT and JTJ, but let's look there too.

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TM   OBL   h/108   Slug   Clt   hrL   bpL   Hit L
AT   .390   .318   .549   .291   4.32   3.22   902
JT   .387   .305   .490   .264   2.29   3.00   902
GB   .410   .298   .413   .320   0.96   1.22   862


AT and JTJ have the same hit rating with AT having a bit more average, JTJ is close in everything but power. I guess the speed and injuries bring the ratings to the same. GB has very good OB, but is behind in average and way down in slugging. Again, the injuries also play into the ratings.

As things have turned out, AT has more slugging than we have. Well, the two teams should be fairly close with JTJ having a slight advantage v RHP and AT with a big advantage v LHP. Given that it appears that he has avoided the injuries to his best hitters maybe not. Will that even out? It's a dice game. Luck is a big factor particualrly with injuries. Ortiz has missed only six,Kep 1 and Jay 15. For us Hill has missed six and Wright 2, Rios 6. For GB Ruiz 14, Votto 3, Frandsen 1 and Hunter none.

Given the overall health of those teams over performing would be expected, but they are not better offensive teams than Stoney, DJ or Big M especially when you look at parks.

Overall I would expect AT to end up scoring in the middle of pack spots 5-9, GB 10-12, JTJ 4-7, but timing of hits and injuries are critical for teams like these and that's very hard to predict.

If you look at a crude measure of LOB (hits+BB-Runs) and divide that by the number of runners (hits+bb)thatl find this:

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Southern Accents   68%
Duxbury Dragons   67%
Hotlanta Olympians   66%
Winnipeg GoldeyesN   65%
Shanghai Clown Figh   65%
Philly Phanatics NLD   64%
East Wareham Pile    64%
Hudson Valley Rene   62%
Bonn Braumeisters   60%
Ottawa Hellfire...   60%
Hammer Heads....   58%
NLD 34 Diamond Kin   57%


Jeep at the top with Zim and JTJ close behind. AT is third from the bottom. GB is fourth worse. Not surprising to see Corky or Big M at the bottom of this chart because they are 1-2 in HRs. AT is middle of the pack in HRs. Surprising that he is that high given his division and home park. Right now Ortiz and Braun are both on pace for 50+ HRs. Something I don't think you would project.

p.s. how come every time I post ratings my team gets swept.

Doesn't help that we lost HIll in the second inning of game one while facing 3 LHSP forcing Pennington into the lineup. Bad timing for that injury.

Joe, thanks for the ratings.

I have to say I am disappointed in my team. I really liked my chances post draft, and I thought Corky and I would duke it out in the division. I am not surprised therefore that your ratings had me in the Top 5.

What I didn't expect was the poor pitching performance compared to the rest of the league. It turns out that my staff has had almost 100 more rolls on the opposition's hitters' cards over the season, which can't be helping. Even more surprising is that almost all of those wayward rolls have come at the expense of my bullpen duo of Tazawa and Jansen. This could help explain the poor record in 1 run games.

It'll even out eventually, right?

It'll even out eventually, right?

Keep telling yourself that Big M!

Frickin' A, every time I write about the ratings, the team tanks. Seven straight.

I know this team isn't this bad, especially v LHP. Just gotta get things going a bit. A very tough stretch.

I'm afraid to post this since it's such a joke the way the teams are playing right now, but here are the park-by-park ratings. http://www.angelfire.com/games5/joethejet/nld34.pdf

If your row has a lot of red, that's bad, Green is good. This is your road games. So, as you might expect, Corky is good, mostly in the better hitter parks, and trails in Turner, Marlins, Busch, Progressive.

If you look down a column you'll see a team's home rating comparison. In this case, red is good. So, Corky is in Coors and, as you'll see, he's better than all but two teams and he's tied with them.

The summary is below. Since you get +1 when you're better, and -1 when you're worse than the home team, and no points for either if you're close, the numbers are closer than they appear.

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Team   Adv   Div
JTJ...   16   W
Semper   14   E
Corky.   12   C
stoney   10   C
Jeep..   8   E
Big M.   6   C
big A.   -4   C
GBrook   -5   W
DJ....   -11   W
Hawk..   -14   E
At....   -16   W
Zim...   -16   E

As you can see, the ratings say we should be a LOT better than we've played. Stoney, Jeep and Big M should also be better.

Ratings would expect Semper to catch Hawk who is much above his rating like AT. Zim is right on his rating however.

DJ sholdn't be great on the road, and better at home where he's better than six of 11 teams.

GB and Big A are sort of in the middle in this comparison.

Well, for what it's worth I guess. This comparison isn't very close at this point.

Sorry about the sweep Joe. (not )

Tulowitzki is starting to hit. Almost dropped him last night but could find enough of an upgrade in pitching. Finally dropped Lecure and his 7.06 era. Shouldn't be that high after half a season but sometimes it's just bad luck.

If Tulo & Willingham hit just a little better and Kontos can stabilize the bp then I hope to stay in the WC race.

One run games are a luck factor if you ask me. There doesn't seem to be a lot of rhyme or reason to having a good or bad record there. I've seen teams with good pens have lousy records and good records for example. I bet if you look at your 10 year sims you'll see a big variation. In any case, very frequently it explains a difference in the ratings, a very high correlation. So, it could just be that the ratings can't predict good one run teams, but, having played the game FTF for 40+ years, I think it's luck.

Sure, there will be some luck involved in close games but it's not the biggest factor. That's like saying an NFL team who loses by a field goal in most games is unlucky. I tend to see it as their just 3 points worse than the other team. Same here, losing lots of 1 run games most likely means your close but just not as good as the other team. In rare occasions like Bigmahon's heavily unlucky roll splits i'll admit that bad luck is a major factor and "should" even out...at least somewhat over the 2nd half.

Corky, do you have the one run stats from your sims? I bet they are all over the map.