NLD 34 - Here we go again

There's been a Jeep sighting:

Sorry I've not taken part in discussions here. Just really frustrated with this team and also only have 3 active teams and frankly can not wait until those leagues are over. Need a break b4 next season.

11-21 in 1-runners here, many injuries even to non injury-prone guys and have just lost games in every way fathomable with this team. I drafted terrible to begin with but coupled with bad breaks you get an under .400 team.

Cano was the death of me. Don't draft someone as pricey as him in an 80mil league who has not hit a lick against lefties and not hit near his card against righties. Had to draft bargains too early to compensate for his price and whamo - toast. Additionally, 2B isn't that weak this year so it was a wrong first pick on so many accounts.

Mentioned to Semper how I didn't understand his Votto pick and y'all prob didn't understand my Cano pick.

Corky, do you have the one run stats from your sims? I bet they are all over the map.

I'll check that when I get a chance Joe, but I'm pretty sure the better teams will have the better one run records.


Jeep,
I feel your frustration, I've been there many times. I was nervous when I drafted Trout because of the 80 mil cap but he's been pretty great, so sometimes it can work. Cano has been unlucky vs RH but I think his unbalanced card is really what hurts him most in a league like this. I agreed with your thoughts on Votto but he's remained relatively healthy so what do I know!

What you both are pointing out are the vagaries of this game which, I have to keep reminding myself, is a dice game. Luck *has* to be a factor.

Jeep,

Well, the ratings like your team just fine so I think (of course) that it's more bad luck than bad drafting. You CRUSH RHP so I think you can safely say that you have underperformed there. I'm not sure I'd like having that many LHP on my team, but given your park it makes sense.

Corky,

Well, certainly teams with better records are not always better in one run games that much is certain.

Nothing in any sport can be classified as "always" Joe, but I have no doubt the better teams on average will be better in one run games. I don't even think its debatable.

There is plenty of luck in this game but I don't think it's anywhere near the factor you think it is. I'm not trying to be too harsh here but your ratings are not a perfect system and that has more to do with results that differ from them than luck does. Your per stadium rating also clearly demonstrates that.

Again, I like your ratings and look forward to reading them but I'm just being as honest as I can as I'm sure you'd want me to be. That being said they are probably a lot better than most who attempt to do a rating.

I just got back from a week long strategy seminar - boy, I'm smarter already

My team has surprised me from Day 1 - Joe's ratings support that my stance isn't irrational. Going with Busch in the LHSP heavy division, I expected an so-so home record with a break-even road result. So, far - my guys are farrts on the road and decent at home.

Frankly, I'm shocked the club is at .500 with my general 201X luck. Even more shocked that we lost Melky for 16 games (Votto has been bullet proof) and we didn't fall flat on our face. We're holding our own in 1 run games

Overall - dropping Greinke and grabbing Ryan Cook has meant the difference to my season YTD. We'll surely see if John Lester can hold his own for the remaining 60 games.

Frankly, I'm shocked the club is at .500 with my general 201X luck. Even more shocked that we lost Melky for 16 games (Votto has been bullet proof) and we didn't fall flat on our face. We're holding our own in 1 run games

I've been very lucky so far with injuries, both this season and the last one (NLD33).

So far my Irish luck (I'm part Irish) has held up!

Must be a variation on the saying, "May you be half an hour in the playoffs [heaven] before HAL [the devil] knows your alive [dead]!"

Now I've gone and done it!

But seriously, I've been terribly lucky with injuries.

The strat KOD

Capsule of this season right here in last night's results, all losses:

2-1
3-1
2-1

The kids are alright!

Despite out hitting the Hawks, we dropped 2 close games with my bullpen blowing 2 leads.


Now I need to figure out my 60s game squad - it seems to defy logic.

Nothing in any sport can be classified as "always" Joe, but I have no doubt the better teams on average will be better in one run games. I don't even think its debatable.

Corky, season after season, teams with good one records are not always the teams with the best records that part is not even debatable. I'm not talking about ratings now, just talking about records. For example, my team must suck and we're a game above .500 in one runners. Not sure you've studied this data as much as I have.

In any case, you don't have to call it luck if you don't want to, but the fact remains that high one run gaps tend to lead to variations from the ratings. I call it luck (as do some others), you can say that the ratings don't predict high or low one run teams very well. <shrug>

As for this team, clearly we aren't going anywhere. Even with guys who I think should be either good or at least not sucky v LHP, they just aren't hitting:

Montero - .191
Hill - 247
Cozart 213
Nunez 258
Viciedo 242
Pagan 177
Rios 235

Wright and Fielder have done well, but that's it. I'm not saying that these guys couldn't ever hit this bad v LHP, but all of them at the same time isn't very expected. Hopefully these guys will hit their cards the rest of the way and we'll get healthy.

Oh well, looks like we'll be back in the East for the start of 2014.