Disparate roll counts

it seems like most of my teams are getting screwed by the roll counts. I got Pedro Martinez starting and he gets shelled with an 18-6 count favoring the hitter. Bill Campbell 6 batter rolls in a row. Nothing I can do about it.

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/ga ... 347890/544

In fact my pitching staff is statistically out of whack -pro hitter.
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/misc/1118382

The pessimist says I am being out-rolled by 131 rolls. The optimist says I am getting 48% of the rolls on my pitchers' cards.

The realist says that if you can't stand to have the dice go against you don't spend any time at the craps tables in your local casino.

You also have 70 more rolls on your hitters' cards than on their pitchers' cards. Funny you didn't mention that. You have out-hit your opponents 828-784, out-walked them by 346-251, and out-scored them by 385-374, yet you are 3 games under .500. There is something fundamentally wrong with your offense, probably that you have doubles in fewer than 5% of your plate appearances. Doubles (and triples) are huge in ballparks like Petco, you have to do some digging to find them when you are putting together your team.

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/misc/382718

Here's my best effort in Petco, won 90 games but didn't make the playoffs. Also had a low percentage of doubles, but had a .360 OBP and generated more than a half a run more offense than you did. Also my bullpen was way more effective. You have no S9 starters and your bullpen has 20 (W + Sv) and 19 (L + BS) while mine had 60 and 39 respectively. Much of the difference offensively can be explained by the fact that my pitchers combined to hit .245 and yours are hitting .113.

Also I would not be concerned if one team or even a couple teams were skewed towards rolls on the hitters cards.
Now if someone like nev who launches 20 teams a night were to run a study of all his teams and reported rolls for all teams combined were showing 70% of the rolls on hitters cards then I would sit up and take notice and believe there was something wrong with the dice roll generation random logic.

Actually to be honest I would expect the percentages to be somewhat in favor of the hitters in the long run.

Think with me. When pitchers get fatigued they are penalized. The exact mechanism is not revealed to us. But we know it gets worse as they approach F0. The theory I have seen most expressed and which I believe is that as a pitcher gets more fatigued the percentage of rolls begins to shift toward the hitter. So maybe an F8 fresh pitcher gets the benefit of 50/50 split. But when a pitcher gets fatigued the split shifts in favor of the hitters. With nothing to ever sway it back toward the pitcher side in the long run that has to result in some sort of split in favor of hitters. Who knows, say 45/55 in favor of hitters for all rolls combined.

IMO

The fatigue increase changes the RESULTS on the pitchers cards, it doesn't change the die roll to go to the hitters card.

If the results shifted to the hitters card, it could work in the pitchers favor when the batter had a card with less productive results. By keeping the results on the pitchers card and modifying the result, it ensures that fatigue negatively affects the pitcher and is consistent in most situations.

All of SOM is table driven (i.e. H&R charts, Sac Bunt charts, Fielding chart) and the foundation of game play is to change results based on situation (i.e. clutch, runner held, ball park factor, infield in, etc). Fatigue very likely works the same way, some kind of chart/result change approach.

Knowing how statistics focused SOM is, they would never leave it up to the unpredictability of the hitters card to enforce fatigue.

I can't think of an SOM Baseball example anywhere in the C&D or CD-ROM game that changes the column die result. The purpose of ratings is to drive results to tables so there is complete control of results. Going to the hitters card would be too random.

But of course that is only my opinion (as I don my fire proof protective gear).

Robert-

Im pretty sure everything in the electronic world is just based on percentage chances-
so for example with fatigue I think its likely that its simply an increasing percentage of the effect occurring, and if it does not, then it goes to the virtual card roll. If it does occur, there are percentage chances for that too, with increasingly weighted bad results.
There is a lot of evidence- from the home field percentage advantage for example- that should leads us to this conclusion.

The fatigue increase changes the RESULTS on the pitchers cards, it doesn't change the die roll to go to the hitters card.

Just for the sake of discussion show me a box score where it states for example on Pete Alexander against a RH batter there was a roll of 5-6 which changed from a strikeout to a double or whatever. And if you could point me to the section of the rules where it states how that actually works would much appreciate.

There is a lot of evidence- from the home field percentage advantage for example- that should leads us to this conclusion.

I understand what you are saying. But you never see a box score that reads dice roll 5-6, strikeout changed to single due to home field disadvantage. Or dice roll 1-2 single changed to gb(c) due to home field advantage. Rather the underlying computer code decides it is time to help out the home team all we see is the resulting manipulated dice roll.

I can't think of an SOM Baseball example anywhere in the C&D or CD-ROM game that changes the column die result. The purpose of ratings is to drive results to tables so there is complete control of results.

And you wouldn't. The box score is never going to say random dice roller produced roll of 4-5 but computer decided an adjustment needed to be made so the dice roll was changed to 5-6 or 2-3 or whatever. No, you will just see the final determined dice roll after all the black box stuff has been carried out.

Note: The Strat-O-Matic Baseball Online game engine is essentially the same as the one the Strat-O-Matic Baseball Windows game uses with some significant improvements. This engine allows the customization of many different optional rules, including those that take advantage of a computer's processing power to improve upon minor limitations of the original cards-and-dice game. Please be aware that some of the play results as shown on the cards may be slightly altered due to these rules.

slightly altered = dice roll changed.

Robert-

Im pretty sure everything in the electronic world is just based on percentage chances-
so for example with fatigue I think its likely that its simply an increasing percentage of the effect occurring, and if it does not, then it goes to the virtual card roll. If it does occur, there are percentage chances for that too, with increasingly weighted bad results.
There is a lot of evidence- from the home field percentage advantage for example- that should leads us to this conclusion.

True, but SOM sells as one of their key differentiators between themselves and Action PC, Dynasty, OOTP, etc, as being able to SEE the results, on a card or table and almost everything in the CDROM game ties to a table still. Remember who we are talking about here, SOM is not EA Sports, they treasure their ties to Cards and Dice.

I understand who we are talking about and I understand how they supposedly differentiate themselves. But the cdrom game has pitcher clutch with absolutely no explanation of how that is accomplished and no table references. The cdrom has provisions for increasing statistical accuracy with little to no explanation of how that is accomplished. Have you been around long enough to remember the power zapping debacle. Basically black box computer coding altered the results to limit power production of over producing HR hitters late in a season.

Point is when it comes to the computer game the company realized there were deficiencies in the board game that could not be directly corrected and have used under the cover unrevealed coding to compensate. Super advanced fatigue is one of those things. It is not based on any kind of published table or card result. It is a black box proprietary mechanism where a pitcher gets progressively tired and performance slips as he does making him more likely to give up not only singles but extra base hits. Extra base hits would be impossible to produce for a card like Pete Alexander who has none without shifting the roll to the hitter card.

Strato acknowledges not all results are simple roll of the dice get the result off the card/charts. As to details it only says this affects only less than 5% of all rolls. That means up to 5% could not be reproduced using just the cards and tables.