2013 cards - estimating Chris Davis' 2013 card

wow...

interesting exercise

this is what I got out of it....

somebody needs to get laid

ROTFLMAO

Justin Upton 2013 - my estimates:

These numbers are my **estimates** of the die roll chances on the batter cards for 2013 (not including ballpark singles or ballpark homeruns):

vs LHP

2 HBP
34 Walks
2.1 singles
5.65 doubles
0 triples
7.1 Homeruns
8 ballpark homeruns

vs RHP

2 HBP
10 Walks
14.7 singles
3.15 doubles
.5 triples
2.85 homeruns
6 ballpark homeruns

Estimated balance 5L

Thank you Geoff. I enjoy your player card estimates. Are the ballpark parameters the thing that could screw up your card estimates? If not that then what?


Thanks again.

^^^ You're welcome.

I think that my method - if it is indeed roughly accurate - is still only a rough estimate. I do try to consider the effect of the ballpark that they player is in, and a rough league average ballpark for that hand of hitter. But for all I know the home ballpark could be quite different.

Also, my method is simplistic. I don't try to use a league average for lefty vs lefty, lefty vs righty, etc. I just use total league average stats (actually, American League average stats, to eliminate the pitchers hitting effect). Then I sort of build in an implicit handed-ness adjustment by carrying over the difference between the 2012 card estimates and the actual 2012 cards. The differences in 2012 are small, but they tend to "point" in the direction that you would expect, in terms of more favorable results - I.e. a right handed hitter vs lefty pitcher might tend to have more hits and walls off of a lefty pitcher card, and therefore might have slightly fewer hits and walks on his own batter card, than you might expect.

It's fairly rough. But my "proof" for myself that I'm on the right track is that the method does a good job of "predicting" the 2012 cards.

I haven't spent a lot of time on all time greats yet - just a little. Here's a wild guess on my part - that maybe - for cards before a certain year or chronological date - maybe they just used a normal distribution of typical types of ratios of outs, for every player. Otherwise, I can't make sense of that.

If the 1911 season is a chevy season you probably hit the nail on the head regarding Cobb. Many of the old seasons were computer generated and at a time when out generation distribution may not have been available or used. Note that the card lists 0 real life strikeouts. That means at the time the card was generated either the exact stats were not available or the service to provide them for all players for that season was too expensive. So strikeouts on the card are probably from a league average. Note the same thing for caught stealing which means the steal ratings have a similar league wide component. Probably why stealing 86 bases only gets him a rating of 17.

I was wondering whether to post more of my guesses, but the ratings book is probably coming out in January, so I think I'll go ahead and post the other card estimates that I've done.

I'm looking forward to seeing how my guesses turn out!

Please be aware that these are only my guesses - we'll know soon enough when we buy the ratings book!

These numbers are my **estimates** of the die roll chances on the batter cards for 2013 (not including ballpark singles or ballpark homeruns):

Pedroia

vs LHP
HBP - 1
BB - 15
SI - 21.25
2b - 14.9
3b - .45
HR - 1.95
W power

vs RHP

HBP - 1
BB - 12
SI - 21.75
2b - 3.7
3B - .05
HR - .15
N power - just barely.

Alternatively, If power is W, then estimated hitter card homerun chances are 3.05, and singles are 18.85.
Estimated balance rating - 4L

These numbers are my **estimates** of the die roll chances on the batter cards for 2013 (not including ballpark singles or ballpark homeruns):

Andrus

vs LHP
HBP - 1
BB - 12
SI - 21.75
2b - .75
3b - .0
HR - .4
N power - just barely. Guessing no BP HRs.

Alternatively, If power is W, then estimated hitter card homerun chances are 3.30, and singles will be 18.85.

vs RHP

HBP - 1
BB - 8
SI - 22.8
2b - 0
3B - 1.4
HR - .4
W power

Estimated balance rating - E

These numbers are my **estimates** of the die roll chances on the batter cards for 2013 (not including ballpark singles or ballpark homeruns):

Lawrie

vs LHP
HBP - 3
BB - 3
SI - 11.4
2b - .45
3b - .0
HR - 1.4
Estimated power N - ballpark homerun chances - 3

vs RHP

HBP - 3
BB - 8
SI - 16.5
2b - 4.35
3B - 1.55
HR - 1.1
Estimated power N - ballpark homerun chances - 2

Estimated balance rating - 3R

Now, when I complete the remaining steps to project Chris Davis' 2013 card, I get the following projected card die roll totals:

HBP - 3 die roll chances vs both LHP and RHP

vs. LHP:

W- 4
SI - total SI - 6.3, est. ballpark SI effects- 2.8, net "pure" single die roll chances -- 3.6
2b - 6.9
3b - 0
HR - total 10.6, est. ballpark HR's 4.4 (i.e. 8 times .55 average home and away), net "pure" HR's - 6.15

vs RHP:

W- 17
SI - total SI - 7.3, est. ballpark SI effects- 2.8, net "pure" single die roll chances -- 4.5
2b - 8.6
3b - .1
HR - total 17.15, est. ballpark HR's 4.4 (i.e. 8 times .55 average home and away), net "pure" HR's - 12.75

Estimated balance - 6R

And the results.....

vs L: 14.3 H, 23.3 OB, 36.7 TB, 5HR, 7BPHR
vs R: 24.8 H, 42.8 OB, 69.3 TB, 11.8 HR, 8BPHR

gbrookes had vs R: 25.95 H (+1.05), 42.95 (+.15), 73TB (+3.7), 12.75HR (+.95).

If you look at his data vs RHP, it was very close. The OB was almost spot on, and the only difference in TB was the overestimation in HR.

overall, pretty nice job there!

Now, when I complete the remaining steps to project Chris Davis' 2013 card, I get the following projected card die roll totals:

HBP - 3 die roll chances vs both LHP and RHP

vs. LHP:

W- 4
SI - total SI - 6.3, est. ballpark SI effects- 2.8, net "pure" single die roll chances -- 3.6
2b - 6.9
3b - 0
HR - total 10.6, est. ballpark HR's 4.4 (i.e. 8 times .55 average home and away), net "pure" HR's - 6.15

vs RHP:

W- 17
SI - total SI - 7.3, est. ballpark SI effects- 2.8, net "pure" single die roll chances -- 4.5
2b - 8.6
3b - .1
HR - total 17.15, est. ballpark HR's 4.4 (i.e. 8 times .55 average home and away), net "pure" HR's - 12.75

Estimated balance - 6R

And the results.....

vs L: 14.3 H, 23.3 OB, 36.7 TB, 5HR, 7BPHR
vs R: 24.8 H, 42.8 OB, 69.3 TB, 11.8 HR, 8BPHR

gbrookes had vs R: 25.95 H (+1.05), 42.95 (+.15), 73TB (+3.7), 12.75HR (+.95).

If you look at his data vs RHP, it was very close. The OB was almost spot on, and the only difference in TB was the overestimation in HR.

overall, pretty nice job there!

Thanks Geekor!

I haven't checked the other predictions yet - I'm hoping that they were even closer.

Re Davis - it turns out that Strat increased the lefty homerun chances at Camden, to 1-18, up from 1-14 (for lefties only - RHB are still 1-14).

I haven't tried to estimate the effect of the ballpark change yet (considering also the related effect on the pitchers' cards in Camden games), but it certainly goes part way to explaining the homerun differences for Davis. Just a wishful-thinking guess, but I wonder if there are going to be a few reverse-balance LHP cards in the AL East teams' 2013 cards - ?

Anyway, I AM indeed pleased that it came in as close as it did!