djkalle wrote:It's just a small sample size, having a 5 or 7 game series. Even a great team probably only has a 55-60% chance of winning a series because you are playing another good team (not sure it can be quantified).
I think that is a very accurate assessment. One should also keep in mind that, sometimes, regular season records are a little overblown. If a good team ends up in a division with 3 middling to weak teams, and another team in a different division wins 15 less games, but was in a division with 3 other better than average teams... who's to say which team is really better?
I am in the Finals of 70s league after going 86-76 in the regular season, including losing my last 5 games in a row and making what looked like a virtual wild-card lock into a nail-biter. My first-round matchup was against a 100-win team: a very solid team, but a team I had done OK against during the regular season (5-7, only a -6 run differential). I did end up winning the series in 5 games. I attribute a good part of that to luck and good fortune... but I did have a +67 run differential on the season (3rd best) so my team wasn't exactly chopped liver. Additionally, the team I beat did have a +184 run differential, but he was also in a division with 2 of the worst offenses in the league per runs scored, whereas my division had a 78-win team in last place, and 4 of the top 6 offenses in runs scored.
Again, I got somewhat lucky and beat a very good team... but sometimes those extra 12 games against your divisional team can skew records and statistics a little if you are fortunate in your divisional assignments.