2013 cards - estimating Chris Davis' 2013 card

I was wondering whether to post more of my guesses, but the ratings book is probably coming out in January, so I think I'll go ahead and post the other card estimates that I've done.

I'm looking forward to seeing how my guesses turn out!

Please be aware that these are only my guesses - we'll know soon enough when we buy the ratings book!

These numbers are my **estimates** of the die roll chances on the batter cards for 2013 (not including ballpark singles or ballpark homeruns):

Pedroia

vs LHP
HBP - 1
BB - 15
SI - 21.25
2b - 14.9
3b - .45
HR - 1.95
W power

vs RHP

HBP - 1
BB - 12
SI - 21.75
2b - 3.7
3B - .05
HR - .15
N power - just barely.

Alternatively, If power is W, then estimated hitter card homerun chances are 3.05, and singles are 18.85.
Estimated balance rating - 4L

I nailed it, for Pedroia. I was pretty close on Justin Upton (these are the only 2 others I've checked so far). I'll post Upton and maybe some others over the next few days.

Pedroia


PREDICTION Per above (reformatted) // Actual card

vs lhp

BB - 15 // 17
HBP - 1 // 1
Hits 38.55 // 36.6
OBP - 54.55 // 54.6
Total bases - 60.2 // 57
HR - 1.95 //1.8
Power - W // W

vs Rhp

bb - 12 // 12
hbp - 1 // 1
Hits - 25.65 // 25
OBP - 38.65 // 38
Total bases - 29.9 // 29.3
HR - .15 // .2
Power - N // N
Ballpark homerun chances - 0 // 0

That's it for now.

If you're correct on the card chances you are looking probably close to 10.5 million. They tend to overprice OB, and the 3 game injury max will track on 1.5-2 million alone. But he doest have the Def versatility of Moss either.

geekor wins the salary estimate! $10.14 is darn close to $10.5 million!

BTW, when I factor in an average difference of .1 on ballpark home runs, for the changes in Camden for lefty hitters from '12 to '13, my card estimates are really close for each type of hit, walk and HBP.

With the 4 defense, I don't see how Davis could be much (if any) more expensive than the 2012 Cabrera. I"m gonna guess $10.20

I'm gonna have to claim this

Davis will disappoint this year. Just got a feeling about it. In a $80MIL League he won't be worth it. His card won't hit 70 HR's in a hitters park and for what you are paying his Avg won't add up and a 1 at 1B is worthless in this game. Have him in a keeper and will run with him but won't draft him over Miggy and his 4 at 3rd. Also have him on the same keeper team. Davis has red flags flying up the pole IMHO.

With the 4 defense, I don't see how Davis could be much (if any) more expensive than the 2012 Cabrera. I"m gonna guess $10.20

I'm gonna have to claim this

Even closer!

Davis will disappoint this year. Just got a feeling about it. In a $80MIL League he won't be worth it. His card won't hit 70 HR's in a hitters park and for what you are paying his Avg won't add up and a 1 at 1B is worthless in this game. Have him in a keeper and will run with him but won't draft him over Miggy and his 4 at 3rd. Also have him on the same keeper team. Davis has red flags flying up the pole IMHO.

Chase, Davis is a 2 at 1b not a 1

I thought he was a 1

His card reminds a lot of Jim Thome cards of the past....or maybe even closer - Adam Dunn.

I agree, I don't think I'd be willing to carry him for that kind of money though.

The big problem is, you either have to platoon him or balance your lineup somewhere else

The big problem is, you either have to platoon him or balance your lineup somewhere else

True - unless you happen to be in a 4 team division with a lot of right handed starting pitchers.