Per game starter strategy for SP*'s in playoffs, 7 gm series

what about if you use a 5 man rotation? If you start the season with 1-5 in order, your #1 won't pitch until game 2, and your #2 game 3.

There won't be a Game 6 if you lose the series 4-1. Better start your stud in game 1.

I thought about this when I originally read the suggestion. However, if you are down three games to one, you have to win three games in a row and your ace can only pitch in one of them.

Starting your ace in game 2 does make it more likely that you lose a series 4-1 instead of 4-2 (and more likely that you win the series 4-2 instead of 4-1), but it shouldn't reduce your chances to actually win the series. You have less chance to win game 5 but more chance to win game 6. (And, as the OP suggested, having a fresher bullpen may increase your chances.)

It does feel like I may be missing something, so if someone can point out the flaw in this logic, I'd like to hear it!

if you lose the series 4-1 you're not mathematically alive. If you trail the series 3-2 after starting your stud in game 5, you're mathematically alive, even if Dumbo and Pinhead are pitching games 6 and 7.

If you're mathematically alive after game 5 the beer tastes better and you have some kind of chance, albeit bleak, of winning the series.

Keeping the probability alive after game 5, albeit barely breathing, increases your chance of winning the series.

Evaluating the probability of winning the series before it starts might make you want to pitch your stud in games 2 and 6, but, re-evaluating the probability after each game is played might make you wish you had started your stud in games 1 and 5, in order to keep the Game 6 and Game 7 probability of winning the series > 0%.

So, it's not a simple question of "Do I want to lose the series 4-2 or 4-1? It doesn't matter either way, so, I'll start my stud in Games 2 and 6." It's more a question of "What must I do to keep the probability alive of winning the series?"

Sorry, Paul, while it might "feel" better to have your starter going in game 5 instead of game 6, it does not improve your chances if you are down three games to one. The bottom line is you have to win three games in a row to win the series at that point. Your ace can pitch in only one of those games. Let's for the sake of argument say your ace gives you a 60 percent chance to win a game, and any other pitcher only gives you a 40 percent chance.

Ace starts in game 5:

Your odds of winning the series are 3/5 * 2/5 * 2/5 = 12/125 = 9.6%

Ace starts in game 6:

Your odds of winning the series are 2/5 * 3/5 * 2/5 = 12/125 = 9.6%

In the first case you have a better chance to keep the series alive (and odds greater than zero as you suggest). However, in the second case if you do win game 5 without your ace, the odds go up exactly enough to balance this.

Now if it's important to you to increase your odds of losing 4-2 instead of 4-1, then absolutely you should start your ace in games 1 and 5. However, if your goal is win the series or bust, then you might actually do better starting him in games 2 and 6 in order to have a fresher bullpen as the OP suggested.

Now if the series is split after four, there will be a game 6 no matter what. If you are ahead three games to one, then the only way your ace doesn't get a second start is if you win the series before game 6. Just don't start your ace in games 3 and 7. In that case, if the series is split 2-2 after four, you don't need to win out and your ace might never see a second start. Thus, your odds to win the series would go down.

what about if you use a 5 man rotation? If you start the season with 1-5 in order, your #1 won't pitch until game 2, and your #2 game 3.

When I had a 5-man rotation, I would try not to start either my #1 pitcher in game 161 or #2 pitcher in game 162 (I used to carry two aces last time I was regularly using a 5-man rotation) so I would have an ace ready for game 1. Of course, if I didn't have a playoff spot clinched, then I'd be stuck with having my #3 pitcher start in game 1. Not good.

What the OP suggests is out the window with a 5-man rotation. You want to pitch your ace in game 1 with a 5-man rotation.