Very bizarre bullpen use

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apolivka

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Very bizarre bullpen use

PostWed Apr 02, 2014 9:56 am

How did this happen? Last night's series.

Game 88, Blow out win:
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/ga ... 348804/524
Starter Salazar goes 6, Kinsler only other reliever used in a 10-3 victory.

Game 89 strangeness:
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/game/348804/530
Starter Oberholtzer goes 7. As usual, my bullpen coughs up a 4-2 lead allowing opposition runs in the 8th, 9th, 10th AND 11th for a 6-5 loss. However, here's the strange part: HAL brings in Jansen (gives up a run), Kinsler, (also giving up a run), and Herrera (blown save). Then with two rested relievers in the pen, he brings in a starter, Wacha, who predictably gets hammered for two earned in 2.2 innings pitched and picks up the loss. Well rested relievers Charlie Furbush and Brett Cecil are wondering if management has lost all faith in them!

So, of course, next game is game 90, and it's Wacha's turn to start! So, what does he do? Goes out and pitches a complete game in a 6-1 win!
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/ga ... 348804/536


So, why did Wacha relieve in game 89? I have seen starters relieve and then pitch the next game, but I have never seen it done with a well rested bullpen. I didn't think this was supposed to happen.
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gbrookes

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Re: Very bizarre bullpen use

PostWed Apr 02, 2014 2:08 pm

I'll try to give this a shot, but first can you please tell me what your team strategy settings were (re bullpen and closer useage) and what your pitcher preferences were?

Could you provide as much detail as possible on the pitcher preferences, including the roles and the order they are listed in?

Thanks!
Geoff
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apolivka

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Re: Very bizarre bullpen use

PostWed Apr 02, 2014 3:36 pm

I have very little set there. Absolutely nothing checked for either Wacha, Furbush, or Cecil. No "roles" for Hererra or Cecil. Furbush has a "tied and late" role, which certainly happened in this game, but he didn't go in. Essentially I'm trying to get as many relief innings out of Kinsler and Janssen as possible, and also some for Furbush when those guys can't go. It's a no-DH league, so everyone gets in there quite a bit. Cecil and Furbush have pitched 65 combined innings already.

Team strategy:
Closer Usage: Regular
Relief Usage: Normal


Pitcher Strategy
Hook Max IP/start IBB help with these settings...
Starters (only) T End. Bal. Don't Rel. B4 Qk Slo 6 ip 7 ip less
Cueto, Johnny R S5 3L IBB Less
Albers, Andrew L S6 1R IBB Less
Salazar, Danny R S5 5L Max 6 IP
Hook Max IP/start IBB Avoid Avoid using Max IP/rel.
Relievers T End. Bal. Don't Rel. B4 Qk Slo 6 ip 7 ip less LHB RHB Blwout <6th <7th <8th 1-2 2-3
Kintzler, Brandon R R2 2L IBB Less Don't use in Blowout
Herrera, Kelvin R R1/C1 2R
Cecil, Brett L R1/C0 4L
Janssen, Casey R R1/C6 2R IBB Less Don't use in Blowout
Furbush, Charlie L R1 4L
Wacha, Michael R S5/R3 7L
Oberholtzer, Brett L S6/R3 5R



Your Current Bullpen Roles

Closer x Janssen
Setup x Janssen
Setup x Kinsler
Tied & 9th+ x Janssen
Tied & 9th+ x Kinsler
Tied & Late x Kinsler
Tied & Late x Furbush
Behind & Late x Kinsler
Behind & Late x Furbush
Middle Man x Kinsler
Middle Man x Furbush
Mopup x Furbush
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gbrookes

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Re: Very bizarre bullpen use

PostWed Apr 02, 2014 8:38 pm

Thanks Apovlika - can you also post the boxscores from the prior 2 games, please?
Thanks
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gbrookes

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Re: Very bizarre bullpen use

PostThu Apr 03, 2014 10:10 pm

gbrookes wrote:Thanks Apovlika - can you also post the boxscores from the prior 2 games, please?
Thanks


i got them. looking at it.
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gbrookes

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Re: Very bizarre bullpen use

PostThu Apr 03, 2014 11:09 pm

OK. I'm not trying to say that this explanation is good strategy by HAL. But it might explain the logic maybe. Although I must say I would feel exactly the same way that you do, and I would be dumbfounded as well.

But this might be the explanation:
Unfortunately for the Soviet Bloc Heads, Jansen can't get through the 8th inning, and get to the meat of his closer role. He tires in the 8th. He leaves the game with an endurance rating of zero, with 2 outs, and runners on first and third, with a one run lead.

Kinzler has no closer rating, but Hal choses to bring him in. It might not be a "strat closer" situation I think, because it's not the 9th inning yet. Kinzler gets the out, and gets out of the 8th with a one run lead still.

Now Kinzler starts the 9th. Unfortunately, now it IS a closer situation, but Jansen is out of the game. Note that Jansen is the only closer role designated. Kinzler pitches to one batter in the 9th, gives up a single, and drops his endurance rating to F3. (A reliever with no F rating at all, not even F0, goes immediately to F4 or lower, and presumably drops fast after that). Hal brings in the next best closer rating, Herrera at F1. Herrera faces 2 batters, gets an out then gives up a single, and begins to tire, going to F6. Unfortunately, the single that he gives up ties the game. Now, it's not a closer situation anymore, since the game is tied. But he's tired.

Now, tied game, top of 9th, 1 out, runner on first. The batter up is the pitcher, Mariano Rivera, a weak RHB.

Let me be clear. Even though the lefty pitchers available in the pen - "fresh" - are better vs a RHB than is Wacha - nevertheless I think HAL is thinking that it's better to bring in a RHP to face the RHB. Not logical from my point of view, but this may be HAL's view.

Also, I don't think that Hal looks beyond the immediate batter, when he's picking a reliever. If he did, he would see that Kipnis, a lefty, was on deck - ideal for a lefty pitcher (like Furbish or Cecil), who just has to get the opposing pitcher out, and then would face the lefty batter for the third out.

There is one more factor - at that moment in time, the opposing team has Torrealba available on the bench. Now, Posey has been pinch-run for, earlier in the same inning. But the opposing team could use a double switch, with Torrealba and the pitcher. So they could bring in Torrealba to hit for the pitcher, and bring in the pitcher to bat in Posey's spot in the order in the next inning. So if the Soviet Bloc Heads brought in a lefty, the opposing team could pinch hit with Torrealba. This logic is a little flawed, because the opposing team could also have pinch hit with Descalso vs the RHP Wacha. Still, the effect of the pinch hitter on the lefties is much more pronounced, since they are hard lefties who are not as effective vs RHB, whereas Wacha is a reverse balance RHP who actually is tougher on lefty batters like Descalso. So maybe the threat of the possible pinch hit by Torrealba did influence HAL to stick with a RHP (Wacha) to face Rivera as a batter.

I have seen HAL bring in a SP in a relief role, and then start him in the next game. It's only a problem, I think, if that SP happened to pitch in relief in the previous 2 games before starting. It also makes sense that Wacha is used (instead of the other SPs), because Wacha had had the most rest since his last start.

And once a pitcher is in, he is rarely pulled in extra innings unless he begins to tire. Wacha didn't tire.

Just my speculation on what HAL might have been "thinking".

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