Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:38 pm
If you assume that all 12 managers are equally likely to make the playoffs, then it's 1 chance in 495.
But a prerequisite is for each division to have at least one of them. This will only happen in 64.8% of all possible divisional alignments. That knocks it down to 1 chance in 763.
I don't even want to get into trying to handicap the field, maybe Chris can release some of his data from his 10,000 simulated seasons.
Essentially, you can pick any number from 1 in 495 to 64.8% of the time, depending on how likely you think each of the four particular top 4 qualifiers is to make the playoffs in the finals league.
One of life's great imponderables.