NLD35 - The NLD Lives on!

LOL.

Hoping that the bad stretch is behind us. Won a series last night.

Talk about a streaky team. We follow our 4-17 streak with a 8 of 9 stretch. WTF, this team is very strange.

Ok, no time today for comparisons to the hitting/pitching etc, but figured you guys would want to see the ratings. Feel free to comment...

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Team...   O...   P...   F..   P+F.   Ovrl   Div
JoeTJet   7907   5006   399   5406   2501   E
Stoney.   7550   4664   480   5144   2406   W
Spider.   7416   4778   336   5115   2302   E
Smokey.   8091   5268   543   5811   2280   E
JeepDrv   7929   5225   567   5792   2265   E
Corky..   8136   5255   677   5932   2204   W
BigAlrc   7333   4930   213   5144   2190   C
SemperG   7677   5176   336   5513   2164   C
ChaseNy   7005   4521   358   4879   2126   C
Gbrooke   7638   5246   354   5600   2038   C
nythawk   7707   5236   667   5903   1804   W
ArrylTr   8068   5822   608   6430   1638   W


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 Divi   Offn   Ptch   Fld   P+F   Overall
East   7836   5070   461   5531   2337
Cent   7413   4969   315   5284   2129
West   7865   5244   608   5852   2013



According the ratings:
JTJ and Stoney should be the best, Hawk, AT the worst.
The East averages 200+ point rating advantage on the other two divisions. That's a lot.
East has four of the top five rated teams!
Central is completely balanced with barely enough rating difference to say that Big A is better than GB ratings-wise.

All I have time for today.

A guy walks into the Psychiatrist office completely naked and wrapped in cellophane. The doctor takes one look at him an says "I can clearly see your nuts"

I am clearly overrated.

Thanks for posting your "ratings." Through the first "half" things appear to be very close to those ratings. The top 3 pitching and fielding are the lowest runs allowed teams and two of the top three hitting rated teams are in the top 3 runs scored teams. - Mostly I like being rated so well. It would be better if HAL would pay attention to your ratings.

I would rather be in a different division, though. The East is very tight and tough. I expect it will a season-long battle.

Spider, glad you like the ratings. I'll get some details out as soon as I can. Busy, busy right now.

In the mean time, had a barn-burner series with Stoney tonight.

First game, we're trailing 1-0 in the 7th when McCutchen HRs to tie. We go ahead in the 8th, but Sierra's 2b ties in the 9th. Bottom of 9 Donaldson goes yard for the win!

Second Game - Yarvish and Wainwright lock up in a duel, Almonte has an RBI single for the only run of the game.

Game 3 goes 13 innings. He scores an unearned run in the top of the 12th (Donaldson), but Bogusevic hits a two-out pinch HR to tie! in the 13th, Almonte makes an error and allows 2 runs to score (1 earned). In the bottom of the inning Ryan misses a 1-9 bphr that would have tied the game and McCutchen hits into a 1bx DP to end it.

Great, wild series.

I would expect those in the east to agree with those ratings, me not so much. I feel the west is a tick above the other two divisions. Total record AND total out of division record seem to back that up as well.

I can only speak for my team but pitching ratings seem to be off as well. I'll expand on that later if I get a chance. Anyway, thanks for posting.

Corky, Love to get your thoughts. I would agree with you that there is a difference in the intra-divisional records that don't jive, but everything else is matching up about as well as it ever has. See below

A caveat, any comments here are soley based on the ratings. I haven't really gone team-by-team to validate the ratings against my thoughts. This is not intended to disparage any team or manager, just presenting what the numbers say. I may or may not agree with the ratings if I took a closer look at each team.

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Team Ov   Ovrl   Rtg   Rec   Dif   
JoeTJet   2501   1   2   -1   E
Stoney.   2406   2   2   0   W
Spider.   2302   3   4   -1   E
Smokey.   2280   3   8   -5   E
JeepDrv   2265   3   6   -3   E
Corky..   2204   4   2   2   W
BigAlrc   2190   4   4   0   C
SemperG   2164   4   5   -1   C
ChaseNy   2126   6   7   -1   C
Gbrooke   2038   7   5   2   C
nythawk   1804   9   6   3   W
ArrylTr   1638   10   7   3   W


Smokey is the only team that is a big difference from their rating. I don't know why because the other things match up. You could also say that Jeep is a bit low and that Hawk and AT are better than the ratings would expect. One thing I haven't done yet is the park-by-park ratings. Sometimes that shows up. These ratings are, however, per your ballparks.

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Team Of   O   Rtg   Run   Dif   
Corky..   8136   2   2   0   W
Smokey.   8091   2   2   0   E
ArrylTr   8068   2   2   0   W
JeepDrv   7929   3   4   -1   E
JoeTJet   7907   3   4   -1   E
nythawk   7707   5   4   1   W
SemperG   7677   5   5   0   C
Gbrooke   7638   5   5   0   C
Stoney.   7550   6   5   1   W
Spider.   7416   7   5   2   E
BigAlrc   7333   8   6   2   C
ChaseNy   7005   12   9   3   C


Nothing really stands out here. Maybe the bottom teams should be even worse offensively, but that's not way out of whack.

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Team PF   P+F   Rtg   Run   Dif   
ChaseNy   4879   1   1   0   C
Spider.   5115   3   3   0   E
BigAlrc   5144   3   5   -2   C
Stoney.   5144   3   5   -2   W
JoeTJet   5406   5   7   -2   E
SemperG   5513   6   7   -1   C
Gbrooke   5600   7   8   -1   C
JeepDrv   5792   8   8   0   E
Smokey.   5811   8   9   -1   E
nythawk   5903   9   9   0   W
Corky..   5932   9   10   -1   W
ArrylTr   6430   12   12   0   W


Everthing is very close here too.

By the ratings you would expect the following
JTJ to win the East, but Spider and Smoke not too far back and Jeep trailing only because he is in a tough division.

Central is so balanced it's hard to pick. Bit A has a pretty big gap to GB, but Semper and Chase just aren't that far back. Chase might struggle just because they are soooo unbalanced O to D. By the ratings you'd think it would come down to Big A and Semper with Chase a dark horse and GB and even darker horse.

West: By the ratings: One very good team, one middle team and two terrible teams. You'd think Stoney would run away with it with Corky hanging tough by beating up the bottom two.

WC: You'd think (by the ratings) it would come from the East unless the teams just beat up on each other. Corky will also be a candidate due to the weakness of the bottom of his division.

Comparison to real is pretty close. The East has JTJ and Spider at the top with the other two trailing (although by more than expected perhaps) Central is close with GB overpeforming a bit perhaps, but not really out of line with the ratings. West is pretty close although you'd expect Stoney to be ahead of Corky. This snapshot, it must be noted, was taken when Stoney had lost 4 of 10 and Corky had gone 8-2. Hawk and AT may be a bit high in terms of w/l, but are where they should (by the ratings) be in the West. WC Currently Corky or Stoney with Spide in the running. Smper or GB should also jump up there. Ratings say they won't.

Corky, I know you have some questions about divisional strength, by Run Dif and Exp wins it looks like this:
East + 53 (199)
Central -87 (180)
West +34 (197)

A lot of the numbers from the west are due to Stoney while the East is more balanced.

Haven't done the luck factors or fielding yet. I will if I get time. Not sure it's going to happen this time around. Things are a bit busy around here.

Thanks for all that Joe. I was going to get more into it but then I remembered our big debate last year over ratings vs simulations. I remember neither one of us getting very far in convincing the other about which was more important. I don't really see the point in getting into all that again since we are both pretty set in our ways.

One thing the ratings will never be able to account for is proper platooning/matchups, settings and substitutions. The fielding ratings could look different for instance if it took into account defensive replacements. On some teams I would imagine there could be up to a couple hundred innings a year where the team on the field is a lot better then the one being rated when the defensive subs are in.

Thanks for all that Joe. I was going to get more into it but then I remembered our big debate last year over ratings vs simulations. I remember neither one of us getting very far in convincing the other about which was more important. I don't really see the point in getting into all that again since we are both pretty set in our ways.

One thing the ratings will never be able to account for is proper platooning/matchups, settings and substitutions. The fielding ratings could look different for instance if it took into account defensive replacements. On some teams I would imagine there could be up to a couple hundred innings a year where the team on the field is a lot better then the one being rated when the defensive subs are in.

D-subs: While this is true the fielding would be higher, corresponding your offense would be lower. Now, theoretically those at bats don't matter, but some times they do. And, sometimes, you don't roll an X for that player in an inning or two anyway.

As for the pitching, your pitching is pretty much performing to expectation by the ratings so I'm wondering if your sims showed differently. It's not always the case, but this "sim" is conforming about as close as I've ever seen to the ratings. That's not always the case.