NLD35 - The NLD Lives on!

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Corky

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Re: NLD35 - The NLD Lives on!

PostThu Jun 26, 2014 8:48 pm

Team A gets 10 hits, 0 errors, scores 4 runs.
Team B gets 9 hits, 1 error, scores 3 runs.

Better team won that night....by 1 run. Zero to do with luck. There are countless boxscores like that throughout the season.

That's a major flaw in your "luck" analysis IMO.
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ArrylT

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Re: NLD35 - The NLD Lives on!

PostFri Jun 27, 2014 11:18 am

Congratulations to Semper & Spider on making the Finals & good luck to both! Awesome to see Semper make the Finals! :)

As an FYI I will be mostly unavailable from July 3rd - July 13th - so hopefully we can start the next draft after that date. :?:

Havent had the #1 pick in a long time - looking forward to it - but I will listen to offers if someone has an interest.
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ArrylT

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Re: NLD35 - The NLD Lives on!

PostFri Jun 27, 2014 11:22 am

As for my teams performance, I cannot say I was surprised. I have been curious to see how low a bar I could set on the pitching side and I think I reached it :lol: And on the bright side I think I finally finished where JTJ usually predicts my team to finish. :lol: ;) 8-)
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ArrylT

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Re: NLD35 - The NLD Lives on!

PostFri Jun 27, 2014 11:34 am

Stoney18 wrote:Nice Joe! Had to be fun watching Timmy pitch well.

Is there an unofficial SOM rule that 100 win teams have to lose in the first round of the playoffs? :cry:



Dont forget that 16 of those wins came against my team, and almost 50% came against your division. Take that out of the equation and you were 54-36 - which while still good is actually quite similar to Sempers 51-39 record against outside division teams. Then toss in the fact that you guys almost split the season and I would say it was a very close matchup to begin with.

The other divisions were a lot closer than ours was, and that makes the playoff teams from the East & Central have an advantage in my opinion because they needed to win outside the division to get in, and was exactly the case - the 2 teams that did the best outside their divisions made the playoffs and put them in a good position to go all the way.
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joethejet

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Re: NLD35 - The NLD Lives on!

PostFri Jun 27, 2014 12:55 pm

Corky wrote:Team A gets 10 hits, 0 errors, scores 4 runs.
Team B gets 9 hits, 1 error, scores 3 runs.

Better team won that night....by 1 run. Zero to do with luck. There are countless boxscores like that throughout the season.

That's a major flaw in your "luck" analysis IMO.


While I agree there are a great many of those, they clearly aren't distributed evenly to each team. I would bet if Semper takes a look at his sims, I bet you'll see a big variation in one run games and a correlation to record.

Also, w/o looking at the play-by-play, you don't know if there were lucky breaks in that one run game or whether your 1e8 SS made a critical error or whether the error had no impact at all.
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joethejet

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Re: NLD35 - The NLD Lives on!

PostFri Jun 27, 2014 12:56 pm

ArrylT wrote:
Stoney18 wrote:Nice Joe! Had to be fun watching Timmy pitch well.

Is there an unofficial SOM rule that 100 win teams have to lose in the first round of the playoffs? :cry:



Dont forget that 16 of those wins came against my team, and almost 50% came against your division. Take that out of the equation and you were 54-36 - which while still good is actually quite similar to Sempers 51-39 record against outside division teams. Then toss in the fact that you guys almost split the season and I would say it was a very close matchup to begin with.

The other divisions were a lot closer than ours was, and that makes the playoff teams from the East & Central have an advantage in my opinion because they needed to win outside the division to get in, and was exactly the case - the 2 teams that did the best outside their divisions made the playoffs and put them in a good position to go all the way.


Interesting analysis AT.
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Semper Gumby

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Re: NLD35 - The NLD Lives on!

PostFri Jun 27, 2014 9:31 pm

ArrylT wrote:
Stoney18 wrote:Nice Joe! Had to be fun watching Timmy pitch well.

Is there an unofficial SOM rule that 100 win teams have to lose in the first round of the playoffs? :cry:



Dont forget that 16 of those wins came against my team, and almost 50% came against your division. Take that out of the equation and you were 54-36 - which while still good is actually quite similar to Sempers 51-39 record against outside division teams. Then toss in the fact that you guys almost split the season and I would say it was a very close matchup to begin with.

The other divisions were a lot closer than ours was, and that makes the playoff teams from the East & Central have an advantage in my opinion because they needed to win outside the division to get in, and was exactly the case - the 2 teams that did the best outside their divisions made the playoffs and put them in a good position to go all the way.


My sims showed the Cleveland squad doing as much. I broke even, at best, against my division and held serve against the rest. When my divisional foes switch to go against their park dimensions my die was cast to play against the rest of the league.

I ran neck and neck with GBrooke's squad with the difference being the our divisional foe splits. My early in-season moves reflected GBrooke's fast start and my last place standing. I couldn't allow him to dominate my squad completely so I jettison Davis and invested in a heavy bench. Likely over spent for Choo Choo but he did play well when he played.
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Semper Gumby

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Re: NLD35 - The NLD Lives on!

PostSat Jun 28, 2014 8:28 am

ArrylT wrote: And on the bright side I think I finally finished where JTJ usually predicts my team to finish. :lol: ;) 8-)


:lol:
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Corky

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Re: NLD35 - The NLD Lives on!

PostSun Jun 29, 2014 12:14 pm

joethejet wrote:
ArrylT wrote:
Stoney18 wrote:Nice Joe! Had to be fun watching Timmy pitch well.

Is there an unofficial SOM rule that 100 win teams have to lose in the first round of the playoffs? :cry:



Dont forget that 16 of those wins came against my team, and almost 50% came against your division. Take that out of the equation and you were 54-36 - which while still good is actually quite similar to Sempers 51-39 record against outside division teams. Then toss in the fact that you guys almost split the season and I would say it was a very close matchup to begin with.

The other divisions were a lot closer than ours was, and that makes the playoff teams from the East & Central have an advantage in my opinion because they needed to win outside the division to get in, and was exactly the case - the 2 teams that did the best outside their divisions made the playoffs and put them in a good position to go all the way.


Interesting analysis AT.



If you mean interesting as in confusing I'm with ya. ;)

Not really sure what Arryl was trying to say here. "Closeness" of a division giving teams an advantage? I'm confused at what this means? Outside of Spider and Jet's squads nothing was close in the league this year. No offense to Semper but he won 84 games in a division that had 3 teams under .500, Stoney won 100 in a division that had a team with 2nd best record overall, and as a whole had the best division record and best outside of division record. That makes Stoney's accomplishment even more impressive IMO. And how is 54-36 not impressive anyway? :?

Yeah...I can certainly see why Stoney might have been a bit frustrated. :)
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Semper Gumby

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Re: NLD35 - The NLD Lives on!

PostSun Jun 29, 2014 3:18 pm

My guys loved paying outside of the division :D

My poor division record reflects playing against squads matched to beat the heck out of each other.
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