Brady Aiken says "No" to Astros

Brady Aiken turned down the Astros' reduced offer of $5 million and becomes only the second MLB #1 overall pick (besides Hochevar) to not sign in 31 years. The Astros and Aiken had agreed on a $6.5 million contract, but recent medical reports on Aiken's throwing elbow spurred them to reduce their offer. They also were reportedly hoping to use the extra 1.5 mil to lure a 5th round pitcher with significant money over slot.

My questions for the forum are:

1. Did Aiken blow it by rejecting a 5 mil offer that he likely will not get in the future, even though the Astro's "reneged" on their original deal?

2. Did the Astro's blow it by losing out on their first pick because of shifty negotiations and/or hubristic attempts to "max out" their signing cache? And did they also blow it by not doing due diligence on Aiken to begin with.

I'll start it out by saying that both probably blew it. Aiken had a right to be angry over the Astros' negotiation tactics, but it is unlikely he will get a similar or better offer in the future, whether he goes to junior college or UCLA. The Astro's also blew it by letting 1.5 mil and the hopes of signing a 5th round pick get between them and the first overall pick. After seemingly blowing it by taking Mark Appel first over Kris Bryant and Jonathan Gray, the 'stros really needed that influx of talent.

Only time will tell for sure, of course. However, I would say Brady Aiken is the one making an error. You never really can tell if a baseball player will be effective in the majors until he gets there--if he gets there at all. Take a look at the sad story of Matt Harrington:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Harrington

If Aiken does go on to a successful major league career, he will make a lot of money in addition to any signing bonus he gets now. He's being offered $5 million that he gets to keep no matter what. He becoming a success is not a given. I would take the money.

Now, if he eventually does sign with someone else and goes on to become an all star, it will be proven (with 20/20 hindsight) that the Astros made a mistake. But for every all star, there are a dozen Matt Harringtons who never even made it in "the show."

He is an idiot. who is his agent? Brien Taylor got $1.55M for nothing. Of course this idiot is in prison for coke dealing and never pitched in the majors.

Harrington's story was a tragedy, Tanzer's "negotiations" with the Rockies were ludicrous, and Harrington repeated his error in the next 3 drafts. But to be fair to Aiken, Harrington stupidly turned down a well-above slot $.4 million contract as the 7th pick in 2000, while Aiken rejected a below-slot reduced offer of 5mil as the number 1 pick.

That being said, I agree with both posts above that he still probably blew it. He could pull a Hochevar and come back for more money, but the odds are against it. And he better not pull a Brien Taylor and get in any bar fights before then.

If there is any concern about his arm whatsoever I don't blame Houston for being conservative with their offer. A broken pitcher ain't worth crap. They will get another pick to replace that pick, right?

They will get the second pick in the next draft (along with their regular pick). But if they don't sign him, they won't get a replacement pick in the next one.

P.s. I was wrong about Hochevar in my initial post. He was actually picked in the 2005 Supp. first round (40th overall) by the Dodgers and turned down their offer of 2.95 mil. He then pitched in the independent leagues, was drafted first overall by the Royals in 2006, and was given a 3.5 mil signing bonus and a 4-yr 5.3 mil major league contract.

...and to touch on the due diligence issue - they don't have the ability to perform a physical pre-draft like the NFL, so they did as much as they could. I think the kid's making a mistake.

Consider the compensatory pick the Astros get, I would agree that Aiken has far more to lose than the Astros.

Since he is only a high schooler, I guess he could conceivably go on to college and get better. However, the realist in me says any 20-ish year old guy who turns down five million dollars is a fool. Of course, realism and sports negotiations have little in common, but in this case I think they need to be a little more realistic even if he is getting the short end in the negotiation. I do not have any exact figures, but I would guess the list of high school phenoms who did not make the majors is quite lengthy. If he makes good, the money he missed out on will be nothing and he can always stick it to them later. If he craps out or gets hurt and his career doesn't pan out, he's got whatever is left of five million after tax, which should be enough to let him do what he wants with his life.

It appears that at some point they cut the offer down to between 3.1 and 3.2 mill which was the minimum qualifying offer to still get the #2 pick next year(40% of the 7.79 or 7.9 mill slotted for the one pick).

Also, since they did not use the #1 pick they lost the slotted amount(again 7.79 or 7.9) from their pool to spend which left them unable to sign their 5th round and 21st round picks which they were going to pay over the slotted $$$ for those spots.

Goofy system. Additional losers are the teams that will get pushed down a slot for the Astros to get the #2 pick next year.