What Do You Make Of This...Injuries

So Santo injured on 2 and 12? Gets hurt Six different times in 120 games.

Perhaps we could get a lesson from a mathematics professor somewhere on Binomial Distribution.

Of course if a player is a 3 game injury risk, I calculate there is a 23% chance there will be no injury for a player in a current year. So on average if you had 9 players all with 3 game injury risk 2 or 3 would not be injured, in the average season and 6 or 7 would. But in some seasons that would differ. But the overall average for injuries is about 3 per season, so by default if the average is 3 and also on average 3 will not be injured then the others must be injured more often in order to hit the average, simple mathematics. I personally have seen nothing to indicate this is anything other than this.

CHARLIE-
WHY WOULD THE LENGTH OF INJURY EFFECT THE FREQUENCY OF HIS INJURY?

I mean I get what you are saying about it, but thats not how its presented on the page.

The rules on the wiki page suggest that the frequency is solely determined by the injury rating number-
and it does not say weather the numbers above 3 games are ignored or are reduces to 3 games;
In any case, would it not make more sense that a longer than 3 game injury be reduced to 3 games rather than ignored altogether?
Otherwise what would the point of having the frequency number be if it doesnt tell the actual frequency????


PS- if that is the case then its worse than the misrepresentation of the stealing ratings.

Okay-

If anyone saw it, there is an update on Garcia's blog page about this.

first thing is that, Charlie your analysis is incorrect going strictly according to what was just said on the blog.

second thing is that it still does not explain the recurring injuries to certain players.


Salty

True Salty. Thanks for bumping this...Hopefully someone (or a few) can address this.

Let me make an analogy that will probably make the issue more clear.

Suppose you have a team in a DH league where all 9 of your regulars have an injury roll on 2 or 12. So everyone is equally likely to get hurt. To run a fast simulation of this, you can do the following:

Take two decks of playing cards and remove all the face cards and tens. Shuffle all the spot cards from the two decks together.

The average guy with an injury roll gets about 3 injury rolls per season. But the actual number of injuries you will get is a bell curve. We can simulate this crudely by rolling two normal dice, and adding the total to 20. This will give you a total number of team injuries from 22 to 32, with an average of 27. Call this number N.

Pick the top N cards from your shuffled deck. All the aces in this "hand" of cards will represent injuries to your DH, 2's for your C, etc. If you do this a couple of dozen times, you will find a wild variation in the number of times each player in your lineup gets injured.

And what you will be doing will be unquestionably random. (Unless you are a total spaz!)

Very well explained....I'll get a deck of cards and try this....Still what I see most often is regardless of 22-32 injuries each season, it's the same 5 guys or so in a given season.

What is weird is my same player has been getting hurt on most of my teams at the same time.And this has happened to about 10 teams not a small sampling.

In the past we have discussed batch injuries which I still believe exist.

BUT since SOM introduced the season injury logs for each team it has been abundantly clear to me that once a player is injured, he is more injury prone for the remainder of the season. There is some logic to this, but I find the timing of this thread, interesting in terms of blog boy's post yesterday...about injuries. Of course, his post was as simplistic as one could get, i.e. SOM injuries for 10 year old children or younger. I just wonder if he is being deliberately disingenuous or is just an idiot. Of course, one can not rule out the possibility of both co-occurring.

In any event, one would expect injuries to be more randomly generated on at least some teams. But that is not the case with Nev's sample league and has not been the case with the leagues I have played in with ATG 8. Injuries definitely are clustering on a few players who then get injured multiple times. Just once it might be nice to get a straight answer from blog boy or his handlers, instead we get injuries explained at a third grade level and the real issues of concern just get ignored.

I can imagine SOM"s card evaluater and handedness matchup software code. Jes us H Christmas, in a 140 200 M sal cap everyone has tremendous backups or the cheapest you can get away with. So if the guy can hit at all he can play, if not the best defense should go in there. It's one guy out of nine, who may only get up one more time. Handedness is about 20th on my list of who goes in. I don't even want to go there with their card evaluator.

Now the rest of the injury the manager gets to decide. However the rest of the game injuries belong to HAL and his thought process, I can never understand how HAL puts in the worst defensive choice on a players card, or moves someone for a worse defensive rating. I guess that's the code where the movie dumb and dumber came from. Let's move Sea Bass to left defense.

Here is another example of case in point:
KEEP IN MIND HES a 1 on injury chances- yet Dimaggio has gotten hurt 4 times in 70 games- how can Elston, Cronin 2X's and Belle be the ONLY other players that got hurt?
Now this is not statistically impossible- but its very unlikely- yet it seemingly happens very regularly...

Player Pos Risk Salary Injured during For
TOTAL 35 days
Howard, Elston (1962) C 2 3.48M Game 1 7 additional days
Dimaggio, Joe (1939) CF 1 10.01M Game 4 4 additional days
Dimaggio, Joe (1939) CF 1 10.01M Game 10 3 additional days
Cronin, Joe (1941) SS 1 5.42M Game 22 3 additional days
Dimaggio, Joe (1939) CF 1 10.01M Game 25 10 additional days
Cronin, Joe (1941) SS 1 5.42M Game 48 3 additional days
Dimaggio, Joe (1939) CF 1 10.01M Game 57 2 additional days
Belle, Albert (1995) LF 1 7.00M Game 63 3 additional days