NLD XXXVI - The Fun Continues

Thanks GB, it will be interesting to see if they respond.

Ugh, had to face six innings of Kimbrel over two games tonight. We continue our win 2, lose 2 pace. I guess it could be worse.

I think this team should be better offensively:
Swisher, K Davis, Soto below the Mendoza line and
Kipnis at 208 with a 259 OB and Crisp and Venable under 250

Boggy and Carpenter have been about where you would expect, C Davis, Konerko and Mesoraco not too bad.

Wainwright and Bailey are stil over 500 ERA. Gio over 4.5 and Lynn surprisingly around 4 with a crappy whip. Ober has been the only decent SP so Far.

Our Top 3 RPs have been good enough, the bottom two have sucked badly.

Maybe we're just a .500 team. <shrug>

I must be the proverbial "eternal optimist." I keep expecting Choo to do something good. So far, playing almost exclusively vs. RHP, his slash is .150/.343/.183. Only has 9 RBIs, 2 doubles and 1 HR while hitting in the 2 slot behind Votto (who is on base a lot). Fortunately Owings has picked up the slack and the team is staying above water.

The team looks like a .500 club - nothing much to get excited about.

I know what Corky has be waiting patiently with bated breath so I got it done yesterday during the Niners game.

The overall ratings don't tell you much because they are, predictably close. Always are in a $100 mill league. Then throw in AT's 28 player, injury plagued, team that the team ratings just don't account for, and you can't learn too much here. The only team that these ratings would count out is gmac (and he's 4 mil down to the cap with 1.8 sitting in reserve). The ratings would also say that Spider is unlikely to make the playoffs, but he's not *that* far back.

These numbers were taken before last night's games

Code: Select all

Team...   O...   P...   F..   P+F.   Ovrl   Div
Stoney.   8352   4714   482   5196   3156   W
Smokey.   8326   4867   317   5184   3141   C
JoeTJet   8438   4774   527   5302   3136   C
nythawk   8585   5054   462   5516   3069   E
JMP....   8228   4881   288   5169   3059   C
Corky..   8208   4642   547   5189   3018   W
SemperG   7486   4199   280   4479   3007   W
BigAlrc   6914   4141   -208   3934   2980   C
Gbrooke   8109   4990   157   5147   2962   E
Spider.   8105   4747   531   5278   2826   W
ArrylTr   8282   4854   787   5641   2640   E
gmac...   7960   5013   363   5376   2585   E


Averages per division

Code: Select all

Divi   Offn   Ptch   Fld   P+F   Overall
East   8234   4978   442   5039   2814
Cent   7976   4666   231   4897   3079
West   8038   4576   460   5036   3002


The averages would say that the Central is a slighly better division than the West and both are much better than the East. The pitching+Fielding in the Central is far and away better than the other two. Probably why my hitters are sucking. East OTOH, has the best offensive squads with the other two pretty close. Interestingly enough the West has slighly better pitching than the Central, but the D in the central is very good in large part because of Big A's ridiculous -200 rating!

Overall

Code: Select all

Team Ov   Ovrl   Rtg   Rec   Dif   
Stoney.   3156   3   3   0   W
Smokey.   3141   3   3   0   C
JoeTJet   3136   3   5   -2   C
nythawk   3069   4   6   -2   E
JMP....   3059   4   6   -2   C
Corky..   3018   4   8   -4   W
SemperG   3007   4   8   -4   W
BigAlrc   2980   5   3   2   C
Gbrooke   2962   6   3   3   E
Spider.   2826   7   4   3   W
ArrylTr   2640   9   6   3   E
gmac...   2585   10   7   3   E


I hate to say too much about these because it's still so early and the wins and losses are so close across the board. I would suggest that the ratings think much more highly of Corky and Semper than they have performed and that gmac and Spider are closer than expected. AT's team will out perform his rating at least in part because his backups ($100 mil) league are much better than is normally expected.

Code: Select all

Team Of   O   Rtg   Run   Dif   
nythawk   8585   2   3   -1   E
JoeTJet   8438   3   5   -2   C
Stoney.   8352   4   4   0   W
Smokey.   8326   4   4   0   C
ArrylTr   8282   5   4   1   E
JMP....   8228   6   6   0   C
Corky..   8208   6   5   1   W
Gbrooke   8109   7   3   4   E
Spider.   8105   7   6   1   W
gmac...   7960   8   4   4   E
SemperG   7486   10   8   2   W
BigAlrc   6914   12   8   4   C


Ratings would say that GB, gmac and Big A's offenses are better than expected. They would suggest that they will level off. Our ratings are a bit low, but that could be because of our division or bad luck. Too early to tell.

Code: Select all

Team PF   P+F   Rtg   Run   Dif   
BigAlrc   3934   1   1   0   C
SemperG   4479   4   3   1   W
Gbrooke   5147   7   3   4   E
JMP....   5169   7   3   4   C
Smokey.   5184   7   3   4   C
Corky..   5189   7   12   -5   W
Stoney.   5196   7   7   0   W
Spider.   5278   8   5   3   W
JoeTJet   5302   8   8   0   C
gmac...   5376   9   11   -2   E
nythawk   5516   10   11   -1   E
ArrylTr   5641   11   12   -1   E


corky's pitching should be a lot better while GB, JMP and Smokey are better than expected. Still, the numbers of runs are so close that it's hard to really tell this early.

I haven't done fielding yet because you have to go through every team and pull them one by one. If someone wants to pull these fields
E Pct DP TP X Tot X Out X Tot X Out
and email me the spreadsheet, I'll do it right away, otherwise it might be a while.

All for now.

This is one of my favorite things about this league - seeing JoeTJet's ratings. Seeing the ratings last season inspired me to try doing my own, just to see how they compare - and there are some big differences - BigA and Smokey e.g.. My "Runs Allowed" include the impact of the Fielding shown. I think all divisions will have some tight races.

My ratings were based on rosters just after Gmac brought his unused salary under $2 million.

Total Runs Scored Fielding Runs Allowed RUN Diff Exp Wins

BigA 513 -65 469 44 88
Stoney 659 32 629 30 85
Corky 672 42 643 29 85
Semper 581 17 567 13 83
Nythawk 732 44 716 16 83
JoeTJet 701 59 689 12 82
ArrylT 708 71 698 9 82
Spider 649 31 649 0 81
JMP 660 22 676 -16 79
Geoff 640 -12 680 -41 76
Smokey 658 26 701 -42 76
Gmac 671 24 725 -54 75

(Can't get the spacing to show up the way I want)

Code: Select all

Team... TRS F   RA RD Exp Wins
BigA... 513 -65 469 44 88
Stoney. 659 32 629 30 85
Corky.. 672 42 643 29 85
Semper. 581 17 567 13 83
Nythawk 732 44 716 16 83
JoeTJet 701 59 689 12 82
ArrylT. 708 71 698 9 82
Spider. 649 31 649 0 81
JMP.... 660 22 676 -16 79
Geoff.. 640 -12 680 -41 76
Smokey. 658 26 701 -42 76
Gmac... 671 24 725 -54 75


Spider, you have to use the "code" tag and then add periods to the end of the names to get things to line up.

Yeah, super close divisions.

One things I neglected to mention with my ratings. Teams with run scoring parks tend to have higher ratings, I'll try to get around to doing the ratings in each park. I suspect that Big A will climb up that chart.

Funny that you have Smokey down there with Gmac while I have him at the top. It would seem your system is more sympathetic to very good pitching teams.

That said, the difference in your system between Stoney and Spider would have to be considered within the margin of error wherein any of those teams could be better than the other.

Ok, here is a look at the park advantage. This compares every team's rating to the home team's rating in their park. It you're better, you get a +1, worse a -1, even is a 0. So, you'll see wide swings because of the +1/-1 nature of the rating. The gaps aren't as big as they would seem

Code: Select all

Team…   Adv   Div
JTJ....   13   C
stoney.   11   W
Semper.   10   W
big A   ..10   C
Smokey.   9   C
Spider.   0   W
Hawk...   -1   E
JMP....   -3   C
Corky..   -4   W
GBrook.   -6   E
At.....   -18   E
gmac...   -22   E


You can see all the gory details here:
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/joethejet/nld36.pdf (you'll have to copy and paste to make it work)

The top section is each team's rating in each park with their average over to the right.

The next section is read like this: Red in a column is good for the home team. For the visitor (looking across a row) green is good. You'll see a zero for your own park because your rating is compared to our rating.

The final section tallies the better/worse/equal for each team. The top part of that is home games. This would lead you to believe that Semper would have the best HF record.

You'll see that the highest ratings look like this:

Code: Select all

Big A   3073
Stoney   3074
JTJ   3045
Semper   3027
Smokey   2987
Hawk   2967
GBrook   2960
JMP   2955
Corky..   2922
Spider   2798
AT   2677
gmac   2531


You may be asking why they are different. This is because you'll play 81 games in your home park (and 12 in your division) whereas, this average assumes equal games in all parks.

You'll see some differences from ratings I posted earlier today. I don't have time tonight to really analyze the difference.

I'm sure there are questions so fire away.

According to Joe my team is under performing and my pitching is badly underperforming. In Spider's rankings I'm tied for 2nd best record. In sims my team was very successful. Seeing the way they are playing in reality is what drives me crazy about this game and adds to the concerns I have already had about the "game play" in this online version.


- How in the world Can Adam Lind have a .289 SLG% with 80% of his AB's against RHP AND playing in Coors as his homefield? That would seem FAR below any statistical anomaly.

- How does Puig only have 10 HR's and below a .500 SLG% in Coors? According to sims Medica should be above .600 and he's not even at .500.

- How does Kintzler, one of the better RP's in the game (See JTJ's team last year), have not only a 6.64 ERA but a 2.06 WHIP?

- I know Burnett is only a $3 mil pitcher but a 7.70 ERA with only 2 #'s on his card?? (Sims showed him as a great bargain in Coors)

- And the biggest mystery to me is how ALL of these things can be happening AT THE SAME TIME.


It seems as if my pitchers are getting killed by Coors but my batters aren't profiting from it. Definitely my most frustrating and unexplainable season in a long time.

And the biggest mystery to me is how ALL of these things can be happening AT THE SAME TIME.

Only one explanation Corky. Repeat after me: "It's a dice game"

I feel your pain dude, I've had several teams where you just shrug your shoulders. I was complaining about Wainwright, then we played kershaw and I noticed he had a ~4.40 ERA. One thing about 100 mill leagues is that you're going to see more anomalies because the teams vary from "real life" even more than an 80 milll team does.

Corky has a weird mix of "luck" so far. Opponents have had more rolls on his pitchers' cards and his hitters have more rolls on hitters' cards, but BPHRs and BP singles %s are very unfavorable. Also both his team's baserunning and allowing SBs have been way below average.

My team has had a similar advantage on "rolls," but has been much more fortunate on BPHR chances by my opponents.