keyzick wrote:l.strether wrote:keyzick wrote:if someone invented a WAR for qb's, that would be telling
The NFL statisticians would probably say that's what they tried to do with the Passing Rating statistic. Do you have a particular problem with the formula? If so, I would value and like to hear your critique of it.
I think it provides a value to QB performance, that can be used to compare to any other QB within the same year. In other words, it's very valuable to see who were the highest rated passers in any given year. BUT, given the changes in the game, a passer rating of 140, for instance, would be easier to obtain in today's game, than it was in the 70's or 80's.
Whereas I think WAR (Wins Above Replacement), provides a means to compare Mike Trout to Babe Ruth, for example, by comparing how they performed relative to their peers. So a WAR of 20 today, is the same as a WAR of 20 from the 1930's, even though the individual's underlying stats may look vastly different. I know WAR is not perfect either, and I believe position-dependant, but I think it's a closer metric to compare players of different eras.
Thanks, Keyzick. I see the difference now. The pure numbers of the Passing Ratings alone are
not sufficient to compare quarterbacks of different eras. I am skeptical, though, if such an accurate passing WAR is possible. The quarterback position is definitely one of the most statistically measurable; can we use
any numbers to compare Forrest Gregg to Anthony Munoz? However, as Mr. Baseball World effectively pointed out, there are many passing variables difficult to represent with statistical formula. Should the formula privilege those who air it out by favoring yardage at the reception, or should it privilege West Coast types who make short passes extended by efficient running receivers like Jerry Rice or Vernon Davis? These, and other such variables, must be addressed and adequately "represented" in the "WAR" formula.
I'm pretty sure you, and some of the others on the thread, know more about rule changes (and their effects) than I. It would be interesting if some of you could come
actually up with some ideas for an actual passing WAR. I, of course, would take full credit for fomenting the discussion, but I
would share the spotlight...
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