NLD XXXVI - The Fun Continues

JTJ:
"Meanwhile in league play, we got our first sweep of the year and, suddenly, we're in first place. Took 93 games to get a sweep. At the risk of jinxing myself, we also have not been swept up till this point. Weird huh?"

Congrats Joe!

The Central is going to be fun to watch, from a pure spectator perspective, being so close!

A reply from strat:

"Hi Geoff,

There's alot to go through here but we have found that yes, not all hits are changed to a baserunning situation. When there is a chance to extend for an extra base, there is no extra bonus given for a SINGLE** reading compared to a SINGLE or SINGLE* reading.

Sincerely,
Strat-O-Matic Baseball Online"

My follow-up reply:

"Thanks so much for your follow-up reply!

I agree that there is a lot to go through, but I think it's important for gamers to understand the mechanics of the rules, in order to be able to make good strategies. I'm like a "dog with a bone" when it comes to understanding this game, and its strategies. The number and ratio of baserunning opportunities for singles and doubles is of huge importance in determining the value of baserunning speed and outfielders' arms.

You are confirming that "not all hits are changed to a baserunning situation". If there is a PERCENTAGE of hits (Single*, Single** and Double** according to my review of game results), it would mean a lot to me and other gamers to know if there is a standard percentage that are converted to baserunning opportunities. (My review of game results confirms that some Double** results are converted into baserunning opportunities, some not, and some Single** results are converted into baserunning opportunities, and some not, but what is the rate or percentage at which these become baserunning opportunities out of all Single** or all Double** results? Is the percentage of baserunning opportunities for Single* results the same as for Single** results, or is it a different percentage, or even 100% for Single* results?

Thanks again!

Geoff"

Hey Guys,

I'm in Maine. Do'nt know how much I'll ;post while on vacation.

I will keep tabs on my team however!

I'll try to catch up when I return to CA.

Hey Guys,

I'm in Maine. Do'nt know how much I'll ;post while on vacation.

I will keep tabs on my team however!

I'll try to catch up when I return to CA.

Have a nice vacation Joe!

My wife and I live on the East coast of Canada, in Halifax, for two years. We drove through Maine a couple of times. Stopped in little towns on the coast, had lobster, etc. The East coast is beautiful. Have a great time!

Hey Guys,

I'm in Maine. Do'nt know how much I'll ;post while on vacation.

I will keep tabs on my team however!

I'll try to catch up when I return to CA.

Have a nice vacation Joe!

My wife and I live on the East coast of Canada, in Halifax, for two years. We drove through Maine a couple of times. Stopped in little towns on the coast, had lobster, etc. The East coast is beautiful. Have a great time!

Thanks GB. Wow, no convo while I was gone. Come on guys, someone else MUST having *something* to say! We did pretty well while I was gone. Haven't had a ton of time to figure out why. A great race between Big A and me.

Did some calcs on the "luck factors" while I was on the flight back to CA. I'll try to post them tomorrow.

Luck Factors

Code: Select all

Mgr....   W   SI   HR   1-R   Pyt   Rolls   UE/E Inj Luck Fctr
BigA...   65   0%   -11%   11   0   3.4%   54%   24   3
JTJ....   64   7%   5%     10   3   -0.2%   53%   -2   2
Spider.   62   -3%   5%     3   0   0.7%   46%   12   1
Gbrooke   71   2%   -7%     8   0   1.1%   54%   -1   1
JMP....   57   -2%   -4%   -9   -6   -0.4%   47% -42   0.5
Hawk...   55   -8%   10%    6   -1   -1.1%   67%   9   -0.5
Stoney.   65   0%   -18%   6   6   -0.9%   51%    5   -1
Corky..   62   -5%   -15%   -2   1   1.5%   64%   -41   -1
gmac...   51   -1%   4%     -7   -1   -0.2%   54% -12   -1
Semper.   52   0%   -12%   -4   0   -1.4%   49%   -6   -2
Smokey.   59   -3%   1%     -14   0   -1.6%   65%   -5   -4
AT.....   57   10%   -14%   -8   -2   -0.9%   64%   51   -5


Not much to see here. Big A is only marginally "lucky" due to his very good 1 run record.

OTOH, Smokey and AT might have a bone to pick with Hal. Smokey has been unlucky with his errors, one runners and rolling on his card. AT Has been injured more than expected (BUT since I don't look at his backups for injuries, I have a hunch this is actually close to the expected numbers) he has alos had trouble in one runners, unearned runs and HR dif.

These stats were from a couple of days ago.

Here is the Fielding comparison which is very right on.

Code: Select all

Fieldng   FRt   Rtg   F%   Dif   
BigAlrc   -208   1   1   0   C
Gbrooke   157   4   4   0   E
SemperG   280   5   4   1   W
JMP....   288   5   4   1   C
Smokey.   317   5   4   1   C
gmac...   363   6   4   2   E
nythawk   462   7   6   1   E
Stoney.   482   7   8   -1   W
JoeTJet   527   8   7   1   C
Spider.   531   8   8   0   W
Corky..   547   8   8   0   W
ArrylTr   787   10   10   0   E


Joe, the "luck" ratings are interesting - although I don't understand what Pyt represents. I have never thought about Unearned runs as a % of errors, but when looking at my own system, I have been given an error a value of 0.48 - so that's a bit less than the 54% to date for our league and the 56% in our last league.

Luck Factors

Code: Select all

Mgr....   W   SI   HR   1-R   Pyt   Rolls   UE/E Inj Luck Fctr
BigA...   65   0%   -11%   11   0   3.4%   54%   24   3
JTJ....   64   7%   5%     10   3   -0.2%   53%   -2   2
Spider.   62   -3%   5%     3   0   0.7%   46%   12   1
Gbrooke   71   2%   -7%     8   0   1.1%   54%   -1   1
JMP....   57   -2%   -4%   -9   -6   -0.4%   47% -42   0.5
Hawk...   55   -8%   10%    6   -1   -1.1%   67%   9   -0.5
Stoney.   65   0%   -18%   6   6   -0.9%   51%    5   -1
Corky..   62   -5%   -15%   -2   1   1.5%   64%   -41   -1
gmac...   51   -1%   4%     -7   -1   -0.2%   54% -12   -1
Semper.   52   0%   -12%   -4   0   -1.4%   49%   -6   -2
Smokey.   59   -3%   1%     -14   0   -1.6%   65%   -5   -4
AT.....   57   10%   -14%   -8   -2   -0.9%   64%   51   -5


Not much to see here. Big A is only marginally "lucky" due to his very good 1 run record.

OTOH, Smokey and AT might have a bone to pick with Hal. Smokey has been unlucky with his errors, one runners and rolling on his card. AT Has been injured more than expected (BUT since I don't look at his backups for injuries, I have a hunch this is actually close to the expected numbers) he has alos had trouble in one runners, unearned runs and HR dif.

These stats were from a couple of days ago.

Here is the Fielding comparison which is very right on.

Code: Select all

Fieldng   FRt   Rtg   F%   Dif   
BigAlrc   -208   1   1   0   C
Gbrooke   157   4   4   0   E
SemperG   280   5   4   1   W
JMP....   288   5   4   1   C
Smokey.   317   5   4   1   C
gmac...   363   6   4   2   E
nythawk   462   7   6   1   E
Stoney.   482   7   8   -1   W
JoeTJet   527   8   7   1   C
Spider.   531   8   8   0   W
Corky..   547   8   8   0   W
ArrylTr   787   10   10   0   E


Fascinating. I suspect these factors have a great deal to do with the actually winning and losing of games. In this game it seems safe to say better lucky than good. I cannot recall having such a lopsided 1 run record, and I don't think it has too much to do with the math. Dice are a mother. I suspect my team may not be as strong as I thought. However I believe they have been very unlucky.

Joe, the "luck" ratings are interesting - although I don't understand what Pyt represents. I have never thought about Unearned runs as a % of errors, but when looking at my own system, I have been given an error a value of 0.48 - so that's a bit less than the 54% to date for our league and the 56% in our last league.

Spider, the Pyt is Pythagorean, the difference between your rec and the "expected" wins.

Smoke, Yeah, I'd say you've been a bit unlucky so far.

Joe, the "luck" ratings are interesting - although I don't understand what Pyt represents. I have never thought about Unearned runs as a % of errors, but when looking at my own system, I have been given an error a value of 0.48 - so that's a bit less than the 54% to date for our league and the 56% in our last league.

Spider, the Pyt is Pythagorean, the difference between your rec and the "expected" wins.


Smoke, Yeah, I'd say you've been a bit unlucky so far.

I am surprised there is such a strong trend regarding percentage of errors and the UE runs allowed.I would have expected more fluxuation.