Your thoughts on a mystery card 1960's question.

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bh327

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Your thoughts on a mystery card 1960's question.

PostSun Oct 26, 2014 1:13 am

I have played the 60's mystery card baseball game a number of times the past year. I was always puzzled why certain players have a big difference in there salary's. Example would be C. Flood

Curt Flood....(.299 Ave) , (.342 OBP)..(1 Def), (6 Hr's)...Salary $6.04


Matty Alou...(.323 Ave), (.359 OBP)....( 2 Def), 1 Hr)....Salary $2.63

Rod Carew..( ..305 Ave), (.354 OBP)...( 3 Def), 4 Hr's)..Salary $2.56

There are a few other I could mention like Tommy Davis, and Manny Mota to name a few. I am puzzled a little bit why the big salary difference. I have played Alou and Carew at the same time instead of Flood and saved an added two spots on the rooster instead of the one larger Flood salary. Can anyone explain why you think there is such a big gap? Thanks everyone for your thoughts.


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paul8210

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Re: Your thoughts on a mystery card 1960's question.

PostSun Oct 26, 2014 11:34 am

Yes, I'd agree these are some of the more extreme examples of salary inequity, unless you place a premium on defense.

Having said that, Flood is one of the top three 60's defensive centerfielders. He excels at hitting, OPB, and speed. That defense can likely win you five extra games a season.

Carew is only the 31th best defensive second baseman, but, he excels at hitting, OPB, and speed. He is not injury prone. There is a rather unimpressive lot of second baseman that he belongs to that have higher salaries. The average salary of the top 12 OBP second baseman is over $3 million, so, he seems greatly undervalued despite his defense.

Matty Alou is only the 34th best defensive center fielder, but, he excels at hitting, OPB, and speed. He is not injury prone. He seems undervalued despite his weak throwing arm and lack of power.

Not too many would argue that paying $5.2m for a package of Carew and M. Alou is better than paying $6m for Flood, unless they have an advanced understanding of player value that leads them to a different conclusion .

And with that extra money you saved you can get yourself a minimum wage Rueben Amaro to get those pesky ground balls that are hit up the middle.
Last edited by paul8210 on Mon Oct 27, 2014 1:23 am, edited 3 times in total.
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l.strether

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Re: Your thoughts on a mystery card 1960's question.

PostSun Oct 26, 2014 7:14 pm

How do you specifically know who the 31st best defensive 2nd Baseman and the 34th best defensive center fielder are?
What system do you use to determine that?
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LMBombers

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Re: Your thoughts on a mystery card 1960's question.

PostSun Oct 26, 2014 8:47 pm

You take the range and error rating and compare. This chart shows that a 3e10 will allow about the same number of base runners as a 2e25 for a second baseman for example.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf ... atfldg.htm

If you compare all 2B men you can determine who the 31st best defensive 2B is.
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l.strether

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Re: Your thoughts on a mystery card 1960's question.

PostSun Oct 26, 2014 9:37 pm

LMBombers wrote:You take the range and error rating and compare. This chart shows that a 3e10 will allow about the same number of base runners as a 2e25 for a second baseman for example.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf ... atfldg.htm

If you compare all 2B men you can determine who the 31st best defensive 2B is.


The chart gives these relative readings to a 3e10 2b and a 2e25 2b:

Per AB-----Per Game
H&E/TB--H&E/TB
1.5--1.6--13.4--14.3

1.4--1.6--12.6--14.2

So, the results aren't actually the same for the a 3e10 and 2e25 2b. Also, which is more important, H&E or TB, and to what degree? And how much more important are the Per AB results than the Per Game results, or vice versa?
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paul8210

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Re: Your thoughts on a mystery card 1960's question.

PostSun Oct 26, 2014 10:31 pm

I clicked on the SOM player set browser. I selected 60s from the dropdown control and selected CF from the second dropdown control. Then, I sorted by DEF and concluded Matty Alou was the 34th best fielding center fielder.
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l.strether

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Re: Your thoughts on a mystery card 1960's question.

PostSun Oct 26, 2014 11:31 pm

paul8210 wrote:I clicked on the SOM player set browser. I selected 60s from the dropdown control and selected CF from the second dropdown control. Then, I sorted by DEF and concluded Matty Alou was the 34th best fielding center fielder.

Yes, I get that you got the 31st player on the list under defense. I also get you concluded that Matty Alou was the 34th best fielding CF. What you didn't say is how you actually know Alou is the 31st best defensive CF. So, how do you know your conclusion is actually right?
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paul8210

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Re: Your thoughts on a mystery card 1960's question.

PostMon Oct 27, 2014 12:49 am

Using the link LMBombers provided I challenged my notion that Matty Alou was the 34th best fielding centerfielder. I concluded that a 1E19 or a 3E0 defensive rating might be as good defensively as Matty Alou and his 2e8 rating. Since nobody fit that criteria I concluded that my SOM player set sort was an accurate enough method to conclude that he was 34th best. I didn't do the same analysis for Carew, so, it's possible he is not the 31st best defensive second baseman of the 1960s.
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Also, which is more important, H&E or TB, and to what degree? And how much more important are the Per AB results than the Per Game results, or vice versa?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't know the answer to that question. I doubt I would ever make the effort to understand which is more important for the purpose of making a roster decision, but, it is an interesting question.
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bh327

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Re: Your thoughts on a mystery card 1960's question.

PostMon Oct 27, 2014 10:42 am

Thanks all for your thoughts on this comparison. I appreciate all the input everyone had.Its a very interesting way they determine some of the salary's. Like I said, I was a bit surprised how big of a gap there was salary wise that these players having close to the same stats.
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l.strether

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Re: Your thoughts on a mystery card 1960's question.

PostMon Oct 27, 2014 1:34 pm

paul8210 wrote:Using the link LMBombers provided I challenged my notion that Matty Alou was the 34th best fielding centerfielder. I concluded that a 1E19 or a 3E0 defensive rating might be as good defensively as Matty Alou and his 2e8 rating. Since nobody fit that criteria I concluded that my SOM player set sort was an accurate enough method to conclude that he was 34th best.

I get that you came to these conclusions. However, you don't say anything about how you used that link to come to your conclusion about Matty Alou. And since you're not even sure that conclusion is accurate--you said "might"--you really can't use that questionable conclusion to confidently "conclude" that the SOM player set is an accurate way of measuring players defensively.

I'm sure you know that anyone can conclude anything. However, for those conclusions to be accurate, one has to do actual analysis that supports that conclusion, and one has to be able to support that analysis. You haven't done either here. I do look forward, though, to you or anyone else showing how we can actually accurately rank SOM's defensive players.
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