Hot Stove

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l.strether

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 18, 2014 12:36 pm

fredpaii wrote:I really like what St.Louis did. Holy crap. Not only Heyward but also Walden? The Cards can replace Miller pretty easily but can the Braves replace Heyward? Hell no! And Jenkins is in single A still and not dominating?

Good to be a Cards fan.

You've stupefied me, Fred. You or Teamnasty have to show how 4 years of Miller (at a low cost), and Jenkins, is worth one year of Heyward and 2 years of Walden. The numbers just don't bear that out. Miller is 24 years old, throws 94+ and won 15 games a year ago and 10 last year. He also had a 1.48 ERA in his last 4 September starts, so he's on track to improve on last year's campaign. That will make him a #2-3 starter for the Braves--who really need starting pitching--for four years. Shae Simmons, who pitched well last year, should do a fine job replacing Walden. The Cards on the other hand, who will now be without Lackey and Miller, are now short on starting pitching and will not have an easy time replacing Miller.

Heyward is an average hitter- who hit .271, with a dismal .384 slg pct., and only 11 hrs and 58 rbis, and can't hit left-handers. That''s not production to be missed or difficult to replace, and the Braves do have his replacement in Justin Upton, who slides over in right. The Atlanta JC has already indicated the Braves had no plans to meet Heyward's demands for a multi-year contract at the money they assumed he'd want. Considering Cuddyer got 21m for two years, Heywards demands are sure to be excessively high for a player of his mediocre/average offensive production.

As to Jenkins. he did very well in Class A, one doesn't need to dominate there to prove one's prospect status. He was 6-5, with a 3.28 ERA there. However, he is pitching even better in the AFL (2.22 ERA), where his fastball is back up to 95 MPH. Considering he is only 21, and was Baseball America's #50 overall prospect a year ago, he's a pretty nice bonus to the sweet 4-year Shelby Miller package.
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Ninersphan

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 18, 2014 1:39 pm

l.strether wrote:
fredpaii wrote:I really like what St.Louis did. Holy crap. Not only Heyward but also Walden? The Cards can replace Miller pretty easily but can the Braves replace Heyward? Hell no! And Jenkins is in single A still and not dominating?

Good to be a Cards fan.

You've stupefied me, Fred. You or Teamnasty have to show how 4 years of Miller (at a low cost), and Jenkins, is worth one year of Heyward and 2 years of Walden. The numbers just don't bear that out. Miller is 24 years old, throws 94+ and won 15 games a year ago and 10 last year. He also had a 1.48 ERA in his last 4 September starts, so he's on track to improve on last year's campaign. That will make him a #2-3 starter for the Braves--who really need starting pitching--for four years. Shae Simmons, who pitched well last year, should do a fine job replacing Walden. The Cards on the other hand, who will now be without Lackey and Miller, are now short on starting pitching and will not have an easy time replacing Miller.

Heyward is an average hitter- who hit .271, with a dismal .384 slg pct., and only 11 hrs and 58 rbis, and can't hit left-handers. That''s not production to be missed or difficult to replace, and the Braves do have his replacement in Justin Upton, who slides over in right. The Atlanta JC has already indicated the Braves had no plans to meet Heyward's demands for a multi-year contract at the money they assumed he'd want. Considering Cuddyer got 21m for two years, Heywards demands are sure to be excessively high for a player of his mediocre/average offensive production.

As to Jenkins. he did very well in Class A, one doesn't need to dominate there to prove one's prospect status. He was 6-5, with a 3.28 ERA there. However, he is pitching even better in the AFL (2.22 ERA), where his fastball is back up to 95 MPH. Considering he is only 21, and was Baseball America's #50 overall prospect a year ago, he's a pretty nice bonus to the sweet 4-year Shelby Miller package.




And this is why trades are so hard to accomplish in my keeper leagues...
on man's trash etc. ;)
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l.strether

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 18, 2014 1:42 pm

That doesn't really apply to the situation or my analysis, considering they made the trade. However, what did you think of the trade and my analysis of it, Niners? Who do you think came out on top?

P.s. I'm still looking forward to your greatest 80's song list. It sounded like it was going to be epic.
Last edited by l.strether on Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Ninersphan

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 18, 2014 1:50 pm

l.strether wrote:But what did you think of the trade and my analysis of it, Niners? Who do you think came out on top?

P.s. I'm still looking forward to your greatest 80's song list. It sounded like it was going to be epic.


Good analysis all the way around. I'd look at it like this, St Louis wins the deal for THIS year, but long term, I'd say Atlanta comes out on top. Of course if St Louis can sign Heyward beyond this year, then it may be a wash.

I think you are right if Atlanta felt there was no way they could sign Heyward, then it was smart to move him and got great value for him. My only problem( and it's a "problem" I LOVE as a Mets fan BTW) is that it leaves BJ, "never met a pitch I didn't like to swing at", Upton with an everyday role and I think the guy is toast at this point, and that hurts Atlanta's offense, which they seemed to need more than pitching. So in that regard it's a confusing deal.

As for my music lists, there's a major health issue in my family at the moment not leaving me much time to do a lot other than off the cuff posts, so that's why my music lists haven't made it yet, though I will try and get one for both the 80's and the 00's.
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l.strether

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 18, 2014 2:01 pm

Sounds good, dude. I can go with that this year Cards/long term Braves perspective. And take your time on those lists; I truly do look forward to both.

I wish a speedy recovery to your family member and peace to you and yours.
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Ninersphan

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 18, 2014 2:04 pm

l.strether wrote:Sounds good, dude. I can go with that this year Cards/long term Braves perspective. And take your time on those lists; I truly do look forward to both.

I wish a speedy recovery to your family member and peace to you and yours.


Thanks I appreciate it more than you know, we can use all the prayer/karma/good intentions anyone wants to send.
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fredpaii

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 18, 2014 3:36 pm

Ninersphan wrote:
l.strether wrote:Sounds good, dude. I can go with that this year Cards/long term Braves perspective. And take your time on those lists; I truly do look forward to both.

I wish a speedy recovery to your family member and peace to you and yours.


Thanks I appreciate it more than you know, we can use all the prayer/karma/good intentions anyone wants to send.


Done.
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fredpaii

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 18, 2014 3:40 pm

l.strether wrote:
fredpaii wrote:I really like what St.Louis did. Holy crap. Not only Heyward but also Walden? The Cards can replace Miller pretty easily but can the Braves replace Heyward? Hell no! And Jenkins is in single A still and not dominating?

Good to be a Cards fan.

You've stupefied me, Fred. You or Teamnasty have to show how 4 years of Miller (at a low cost), and Jenkins, is worth one year of Heyward and 2 years of Walden. The numbers just don't bear that out. Miller is 24 years old, throws 94+ and won 15 games a year ago and 10 last year. He also had a 1.48 ERA in his last 4 September starts, so he's on track to improve on last year's campaign. That will make him a #2-3 starter for the Braves--who really need starting pitching--for four years. Shae Simmons, who pitched well last year, should do a fine job replacing Walden. The Cards on the other hand, who will now be without Lackey and Miller, are now short on starting pitching and will not have an easy time replacing Miller.

Heyward is an average hitter- who hit .271, with a dismal .384 slg pct., and only 11 hrs and 58 rbis, and can't hit left-handers. That''s not production to be missed or difficult to replace, and the Braves do have his replacement in Justin Upton, who slides over in right. The Atlanta JC has already indicated the Braves had no plans to meet Heyward's demands for a multi-year contract at the money they assumed he'd want. Considering Cuddyer got 21m for two years, Heywards demands are sure to be excessively high for a player of his mediocre/average offensive production.

As to Jenkins. he did very well in Class A, one doesn't need to dominate there to prove one's prospect status. He was 6-5, with a 3.28 ERA there. However, he is pitching even better in the AFL (2.22 ERA), where his fastball is back up to 95 MPH. Considering he is only 21, and was Baseball America's #50 overall prospect a year ago, he's a pretty nice bonus to the sweet 4-year Shelby Miller package.


I'm glad I could stupify someone else for a change. :D I grant you the Braves win the salary aspect of the deal but I'll take a young power hitter with very good all-around baseball skills that hasn't quite hit his prime yet. I think the power is coming soon. He has the ability. The Cards will extend him if they are smart at all.
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l.strether

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 18, 2014 4:07 pm

Well, Busch Stadium certainly isn't going to help his power spike if it does come. Also, the "extension" Heyward is going to be looking for is likely going to be in the 6-8 year, 15-18 mil range--Hunter Pence money. So, unless Heyward substantially improves on his last two mediocre offensive seasons, I think the Cards will be best off investing elswehere. If he does, though, I'll be the first to tell you you were right... :D

P.s. I'm looking forward to your input on the Greatest LF's/Songs of the 00's lists. As you know, it's the last of the lists, and none of them are complete without your valuable input.
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Valen

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 18, 2014 4:38 pm

On the Heyward deal don't think it matters if Cards can resign him or not. My thinking on stuff like that is they could sign the player as a FA whether they traded for him now or not. So I only factor in the short term control in evaluating a trade.

On the Stanton signing how much does that change the landscape? Not just thinking about how it impacts what other free agents ask for but that it was the Marlins doing the spending. I think almost everyone assumed Miami would never be willing to spend what it took and/or that Stanton would want out of that environment. Apparently either the money won him over or they somehow convinced him they have a plan.

Does this signal a new direction for the Marlins? Or just another bump in the road like a couple years back when they added several free agents and made many think they were going to be serious about becoming contenders again. Do you guys think this signals any kind of long term plan or commitment for winning?
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