Hot Stove

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alk58

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Re: Hot Stove

PostMon Nov 24, 2014 5:48 pm

They were talking about that today on MLB network, I don't believe there is a problem with Cespedes. Not to say they won't trade him, it was mention today Latos for Cespedes.
It may seem like the there is a logjam in the OF but these things have a way of working themselves out. Interesting they could have had Lackey for the major league min and resign Lester. They still would have Sandoval and Hanley and not have to trade either Cespedes, Craig , or Betts for pitching.
Just reported Cole Hamels will waive no trade to Boston if they pick up the 20 mil option.
Please send all PM's to allank58@gmail.com
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teamnasty

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Re: Hot Stove

PostMon Nov 24, 2014 9:24 pm

I think both of the Red Sock contracts are proper market value, neither bargains nor busts for the team. It's a fascinating gamble to overload themselves severely around the diamond in the hope of later parlaying the excess into a legitimate pitching staff via trade. If I'm the Phillies or another similarly situated team I would absolutely ask for the moon and the stars from Boston. Because if they don't acquire a stud pitcher or two or three, this may quickly become a highly expensive albatross that falls short.
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Valen

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 25, 2014 11:48 am

For 2 yrs/25 mil, they got one who hit 26 homers, with 92 RBis, a .362 Obp, and a .456 sg. pct. at a good price.

I see your point about the LH bat and all. But No way if I were running a team I pay 12.5 mil for a DH. I could find cheaper alternatives that could give me similar production. Any time I am paying a player over $10 mil he needs to be making an every day contribution in the field. Or he needs to be giving me Ortiz production.

They're both now possible trade bait for pitching, as the Sox are working on possible deals if they can't sign Lester. Bogaerts would obviously help fetch a lot, Middlebrooks not so much.

I was thinking along these same lines. I don't think Hanley will like switching to the OF. Bogarts after that storybook first season was to me a disappointment last year. I carried him for half a season on one of my fantasy teams thinking he would kick it in at some point and be what everyone had predicted. Never happened and finally dropped him. I am thinking Boston has realized he is not their future at short. Trade him now while teams still believe in what he could be. Wait another season like the one he just had and trade value will drop.
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LMBombers

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 25, 2014 12:19 pm

Last off-season Middlebrooks still had value. Boegarts is not known for his glove and if he can't hit he is not worth much. Another year of a poor BA and he will be in the same boat as Middlebrooks.....virtually worthless.
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l.strether

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 25, 2014 12:37 pm

Valen wrote:
For 2 yrs/25 mil, they got one who hit 26 homers, with 92 RBis, a .362 Obp, and a .456 sg. pct. at a good price.

I see your point about the LH bat and all. But No way if I were running a team I pay 12.5 mil for a DH. I could find cheaper alternatives that could give me similar production. Any time I am paying a player over $10 mil he needs to be making an every day contribution in the field. Or he needs to be giving me Ortiz production.

DH or no, he's still going to be a middle of the order bat who hit 26 homers, with a .362 OBP, and a .456 slugging percentage last year. And, no, a team can't easily find cheaper alternatives that could feasibly give them similar production in the middle of the order. There aren't any free agents providing that feasible production at that low price.

And Valen is kidding himself if he thinks he can expect David Ortiz production at DH for 2 yrs/25 mil. 35-yr-old Victor Martinez, who does provide that production, just signed for 4 yrs/68 mil. That's a lot steeper than 2 yrs/25 mil.
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l.strether

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 25, 2014 1:58 pm

LMBombers wrote:Last off-season Middlebrooks still had value. Boegarts is not known for his glove and if he can't hit he is not worth much. Another year of a poor BA and he will be in the same boat as Middlebrooks.....virtually worthless.

You're right that Bogaerts' value will drop, but I doubt he will be "virtually worthless." However, he has immense value now. He is still a young shortstop with solid range and a plus arm, with 25 homer potential. That tends to get you a lot on the trade market. If Boston truly thinks he is their shortstop of the future, and they play him there this year, I don't think his future trade value will be much of a concern. However, if they do trade him this off-season, they can count on getting a lot for him in return.
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lakeviewdave

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 25, 2014 2:12 pm

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Last edited by lakeviewdave on Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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teamnasty

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 25, 2014 2:52 pm

Laroche isn't even a .362obp/.456 slug guy either. That's above his career averages and he's 35 years old.
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l.strether

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 25, 2014 2:53 pm

l.strether wrote:For 2 yrs/25 mil, they got one who hit 26 homers, with 92 RBis, a .362 Obp, and a .456 sg. pct. at a good price.
DH or no, he's still going to be a middle of the order bat who hit 26 homers, with a .362 OBP, and a .456 slugging percentage last year. And, no, you can't easily find cheaper alternatives that could feasibly give you similar production in the middle of the order. There aren't any free agents providing that feasible production at that low price.

And you're kidding yourself if you think you can expect David Ortiz production at DH for 2 yrs/25 mil. 35-yr-old Victor Martinez, who does provide that production, just signed for 4 yrs/68 mil. That's a lot steeper than 2 yrs/25 mil.

I will take Ortiz all day over Laroche at 2/$25m, perhaps your are kidding yourself with your comparison of Laroche vs Ortiz. When has Laroche ever hit lefties? When is the last time he even put together 2 good years in a row? He has been an every other year type of hitter. Now he goes to the AL (yes he did play 6 games a few years ago in the AL), could be an adjustment period for him as well. If you want to factor in age, when Ortiz was 34-35 he was putting up top DH numbers year after year. Laroche hasn't hit .275 in a full season since 2006 and his best OBP was last year at .362 and he hit .259 (failed to mention that!).

Bottom line Laroche is not in same league as Ortiz is as a DH.

Bottom line: you need to read my posts better.

I never said I would take Laroche over Ortiz, or that Laroche was in "Ortiz's league." I said: "Valen is kidding himself if he thinks one can expect Ortiz production at DH for 2 yrs/25 mil." Big difference. In case you hadn't noticed, that caveat includes Laroche.

Now to LaRoche. I never said he was a flawless player without drawbacks. I correctly noted he hit 26 homers, with a .362 OBP, and a .456 slugging percentage last year. That is excellent production for 2yrs/25 mil. Even if he does a bit less than that, it still would be a great return. And who cares if he hit .259? That's not terrible for a power hitting run-producer. Secondly, as long as his OBP stays at .340-.360, he could hit .240 and it would still be a great deal. And many hitters still hit well from 35-38, particularly when they don't rely on speed. Victor Martinez is proof of that. LaRoche significantly cut down his strikeouts last year; so he's actually improving. Also, he's now moving to US Cellular field; that will help immensely.

Finally, if you think LaRoche is a bad deal, then you need to tell the forum what better offensive deal you think you can get on the free agent market for 2 yrs/25 mil. Knock yourself out; it won't be easy.


P.s. Lighten up on the intensity (and exclamation marks). We're talking free agents here, not Ferguson.
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lakeviewdave

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Re: Hot Stove

PostTue Nov 25, 2014 3:34 pm

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Last edited by lakeviewdave on Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:41 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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