Bill James Read

http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/bill-james-statistical-revolution/

Interesting little read on Bill James.

Interesting article. Thanks for sharing.

Great read, thanks for posting!

An interesting article. Thanks for posting.

The paragraph on WAR which so many now use as an end all be all determinant of who the best players are. Or who were the best players a century ago. It has long been my contention that most people will only rely heavily on this and other similar stats if they do not look too closely at how the numbers are arrived at.

ere is Bill James on Wins Above Replacement, perhaps the hottest advanced statistic in the game right now:

“Well, my math skills are limited and my data-processing skills are essentially nonexistent. The younger guys are way, way beyond me in those areas. I’m fine with that, and I don’t struggle against it, and I hope that I don’t deny them credit for what they can do that I can’t.

“But because that is true, I ASSUMED that these were complex, nuanced, sophisticated systems. I never really looked; I just assumed that the details were out of my depth. But sometime in the last year I was doing some research that relied on these WAR systems, so I took a look at them, and … they’re not very impressive. They’re not well thought through; they haven’t made a convincing effort to address many of the inherent difficulties that the undertaking presents. They tend to get so far into the data, throw up their arms and make a wild guess. I don’t know if I’m going to get the time to do better of it, or if it will be left to others, but … we’re not at anything like an end point here. I assumed that these systems were a lot better than they actually are.”

All 3 major WAR systems blow James' Win Shares out of the water. Nobody employs Win Shares anymore. And I say that as someone who worships James.

Thanks, blue turtle. The fact that James is both able to see his own BS/bias and actually own up to it only adds to his legend, in my opinion. Good read.

James mentions Ortiz as being a great clutch player that challenges his belief that "clutch" isn't an important measurable quality.

I see that SOM Ortiz doesn't have positive clutch ratings on most of his cards (I think for one he does), so this confirms what others have said. The SOM clutch feature isn't really meant to convey "clutch", but, rather serves as a mechanism to produce simulated season results that more closely mirror actual without regard to clutch ability.