X rating question

Over the course of a 162 game league, what would be the average number of x ratings for each position to be rolled?

Over the course of a 162 game league, what would be the average number of x ratings for each position to be rolled?

You can figure the (nearly)exact probability this way; All pitcher cards have 20- gbx, 3-catcherx, and 7-fbx against righties and against lefties. Those number are out of 108 possible rolls. A team has roughly 3100-3200 rolls on the pitchers cards for a season. You can do the math....The breakdown amongst infielders and outfielders can vary but I surveyed several of my past teams and it's around 80 x-chances for catchers, 50 x-chances for 1b, 85 x-chances for 3b, 190 x-chances at ss. I found more variations in the outfield but generally cf is in the range of 70-90, rf and lf in the 50-70 range each. Of course any given season can vary. But I feel like it's a pretty fair guideline when making roster decisions.

Hope that's helpful. Of course, if I'm way off base our Strat community here will let you( and me ) know it! Good luck!

prjr is basically correct...


if the play is not a sac or squeeze or intentional BB, there is a 50% theoretical chance of it being on the pitcher's card

since both vs. lefty and vs. righty have the same number of X results, there are basically 36 possible 'dice rolls' in each column, and 3 columns for a total of 108 possible pitcher die rolls

on the pitcher's card, the number of die rolls that are x results are distributed as follows:
p 2/108
c 3/108
1b 2/108
3b 3/108
2b 6/108
ss 7/108
lf 2/108
rf 2/108
cf 3/108

so since there are also 108 possible die rolls on the hitters' cards...
the chances of an x result on any given plate appearance that is NOT an intentional walk or a sac bunt by position are actually:
p 2/216
c 3/216
1b 2/216
3b 3/216
2b 6/216
ss 7/216
lf 2/216
rf 2/216
cf 3/216

Statistically, here is what SHOULD happen
(Number of X-Rolls Handled as Fielder Per 648 PA as Hitter)
C - 81.06
1b - 54.24
2b - 162.13
3b - 81.06
ss - 188.96
LF/RF - 54.24
CF - 81.06
P - 54.24

Here is a random sampling (my last 3 completed teams)
Pitcher X rolls not included (Strat does not yet track them - they SHOULD be similar to 1b)

My last team:
Catcher X - 90
1b X - 45
2b X - 169
3b X - 85
ss X - 203
RF X - 55
LF X - 57
CF X - 75

the prior team
Catcher X - 67
1b X - 54
2b X - 171
3b X - 87
ss X - 192
RF X - 66
LF X - 56
CF X - 89

one before that
Catcher X - 66
1b X - 49
2b X - 132
3b X - 78
ss X - 166
RF X - 51
LF X - 56
CF X - 80

hope that helps

Thanx for the stats - The reason i was curious about the numbers is the cost of having a left or right fielder
with a 4 rating -but with a minus arm- so maybe every couple of games it might get hit-maybe it would
not be such a risk if u took him out for a defensive replacement.

thank you very much backra, remind me to never gamble at cards against you if it ever comes up.

Hey Tonyg,
I just finished a season with Kiner in LF.
He was replaced in 8th with a lead.
For the season, he had 46 X chances.
He turned those into 17 outs, 24 hits and 5 errors.

I play beckwith at 3b all the time anyway-shouldnt be much different.

I knew my fellow SOMer's would narrow my approximations down to the hundreth decimal place. Thanks patrickcassidy and hackra! I had forgot the pitcher's obviously, and hadn't actually counted the x plays on a card to see that they are always distributed exactly the same by position. I was just relying on diamond dope and on eye-balling a card...Speaking of the pitchers though; Am I right in figuring that even a 300+ inning starter SHOULD only have about 10-11 x-chances a season (about 1/5 of the 54.24 that hackra referenced)? Or, more in perspective, about one every fourth start? I think I just had an revalation about how unimportant pitcher's fielding ratings are here. Have I missed something? X-chances are the only time the fielder's rating comes into play correct?

on average your entire pitching staff will throw 1458 IP (9 innings times 162 games) - this will be lower if you lose a lot of road games (only get 8 IP in a road loss that does not go into extra innings) and possibly a tad higher if you have a boatload of extra inning games. My experience is 1458 is close (1440-1460 on review of my last few teams).

Therefore if the statistics hold to form with pitcher X-rolls, a 300 IP man would get 11 X-rolls in a season.