Estimated Runs Produced

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ringojb

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Estimated Runs Produced

PostFri Dec 19, 2014 10:52 pm

I'm a newbie to the online game. Is there a place where each players Estimated Runs Produced rating is listed. Using the formula in the OFFENSE vs DEFENSE pdf. by Dean Carrano?
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ringojb

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Re: Estimated Runs Produced

PostSat Dec 20, 2014 5:50 pm

Or is it suggested to buy the SOM ratings book and compute it myself? Or does the SOM ratings book contain the calculation?
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ycbill

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Re: Estimated Runs Produced

PostSat Dec 20, 2014 10:14 pm

The Strat-O-Matic ratings book gives most of the numbers referred to in that great Strat-math article. However, the 2013 season book (which I bought last year) does not give the stolen bases or caught stealing numbers. Those SB/CS numbers are given in the season player list EXCEL spreadsheet data downloadable for free from the Strat website when the cards become available. If you buy the ratings spreadsheet download (which has the ratings book data) you can combine the data in one spreadsheet and fiddle with the numbers to your heart's content. I write this with a grand total of one year of very enjoyable experience playing Strat on-line, and hope you have many enjoyable times and teams as well.
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ringojb

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Re: Estimated Runs Produced

PostSun Dec 21, 2014 8:45 am

Thanks! I am currently 2 games under .500 and my star player has been out for 15 games and just got injured again for 7 games (with a 1 injury rating). It's still fun though.

I may get the ratings download when the 2014 game comes out.
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Valen

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Re: Estimated Runs Produced

PostMon Dec 22, 2014 12:01 pm

If you are going to do some kind of runs produced model for the cards you might want to ignore the real life stolen bases. Why?

You are calculating the card, not their real life season. When you calculate the card using whatever formula the resulting number may not represent one season worth of performance and thus not correlate to what the real life single season SB and CS stealing numbers were. So you could over/under calculate the influence of those. Also, since you are calculating runs produced for the card it might be better to have some sort of calculation based on the advanced steal ratings.

For example 108 roll chances per card side. Assuming a 2 to 1 RH/LF pitcher ratio doubling the numbers on RH side that is 324 PA. A straight formula using real life SB numbers therefore would overstate influence of stolen bases. So perhaps your formula should only count half their SB numbers if using real life numbers. I have experimented in the past with a variety of formulas attempting to convert the Strat SB ratings to an estimated SB/CS values for plugging in to my own runs created formula. Have never found one I was happy with. Perhaps I should just compromise and just use the real life numbers and cut them in half. But I am a bit obsessive/compulsive when it comes to doing that sort of thing. Once I get the card numbers in my little
Access database it is as much about experimenting with that database as it is producing any strat advantage.
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Valen

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Re: Estimated Runs Produced

PostMon Dec 22, 2014 12:18 pm

Those SB/CS numbers are given in the season player list EXCEL spreadsheet data downloadable for free from the Strat website when the cards become available.

The challenge is connecting the lines in the downloaded spreadsheet and the lines in the ratings book.

Remove any players in the ratings spreadsheet that are not in the online game spreadsheet.

Sort both spreadsheets by name. This should result in both spreadsheets now being in the same order.

You can now copy the ratings spreadsheet and paste to the right side in to the online game spreadsheet. In theory now you have one line for each player that has all then information for every player on a single line.

You can add a column that does a calculation to double check that. The name for each player will be there twice. In one column where it was in the online spreadsheet and one where it was in the ratings book. I am assuming here that both list the name in the same order (Last, First). If they are not the same it gets a bit more complicated as you will need a formula that will convert one of them. To make it simpler I cut and paste the two columns in to the first 2 columns of the spreadsheet so they are in columns A and B.

Now insert a column right after. This will be column C. Create a formula something like @iif(A1=B1,1,0)

Copy this formula all the way down your spreadsheet. Save the spreadsheet.

You can then sort that C column. All the values should be 1. If any are 0 that means the names were not in sync. Back track in to your process and determine why. Maybe names were listed differently in the two spreadsheets. Whatever was causing the syncing problem correct it and the redo the formula, recopy it down, and re-sort the spreadsheet. Keep at it until you get it right.

Sounds like some effort but I can usually combine 2 spreadsheets like this in a fraction of the time it takes most to hand type in selected data from one spreadsheet in to another. Of course if you type 300 words a second or something with perfect accuracy we might have a race. :lol:

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