How Bad Can You Be?

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Badjam

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Re: How Bad Can You Be?

PostSun Dec 28, 2014 10:48 pm

alk58 wrote:
As to the 1 column thing, does that matter? Wouldn't it change with every new roll?

ah the great question. do dice have a memory? Yes the odds are the same 1,2,3,4,5,6 will be rolled, BUT this is were the Law of Averages come in!!

Previous rolls mean nothing. Having guys with good columns in 1, 2 or 3 in a batting order mean nothing. Mathematical scenarios on a given card are what you are looking for.
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alk58

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Re: How Bad Can You Be?

PostSun Dec 28, 2014 10:53 pm

Badjam wrote:
alk58 wrote:
As to the 1 column thing, does that matter? Wouldn't it change with every new roll?
I didn't say that
ah the great question. do dice have a memory? Yes the odds are the same 1,2,3,4,5,6 will be rolled, BUT this is were the Law of Averages come in!!

Previous rolls mean nothing. Having guys with good columns in 1, 2 or 3 in a batting order mean nothing. Mathematical scenarios on a given card are what you are looking for.

This is what I thought you would say, call me what ever you want its not all Mathematical it cant be just that I refuse to believe it.
we will have to agree to disagree :D
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alk58

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Re: How Bad Can You Be?

PostSun Dec 28, 2014 10:59 pm

4 + 4 = 8 no matter can't dispute it. If you can build the best team using Math then you should win every league. can't dispute math. or what am i missing?
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Badjam

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Re: How Bad Can You Be?

PostSun Dec 28, 2014 11:00 pm

"That phrase above makes no sense. If you want to call your special connection with J-Pav "brains," knock yourself out. Think what you want Badjam. I made myself perfectly clear and am perfectly content with how my posts represent me.

Have a wonderful New Years, and let's move on."

Yes, happy holidays to all.

Above scenario is not special and exclusive. If beyond your realm of understanding, that's OK. We should be all open and welcome to different ways and viewpoints that we haven't explored yet.

Alk, did I miss something? Was there a question or subject I glossed over while engaging in other conversation?
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alk58

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Re: How Bad Can You Be?

PostSun Dec 28, 2014 11:02 pm

no you wrapped it up perfectly, well said
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Badjam

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Re: How Bad Can You Be?

PostSun Dec 28, 2014 11:14 pm

This game is based on math. Give yourself a mathematical advantage and you will win your share of leagues. As I have said, even 162 games is somewhat of a short sample size to let mathematical probabilities take over but stick with it, it is a wining formula.
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coyote303

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Re: How Bad Can You Be?

PostSun Dec 28, 2014 11:17 pm

alk58 wrote:This is what I thought you would say, call me what ever you want its not all Mathematical it cant be just that I refuse to believe it.
we will have to agree to disagree :D


Sorry, alk, but there is opinion and then there are facts. You may choose to believe anyway that it matters which column a hitter has their hits in; that's your right. However, it's your right to be wrong!

Computer-generated dice (or real dice) don't have memory. Casinos make millions of dollars off of those who believe that they do!

Citing the law of averages is a flawed argument. Look at it this way: Let's say you roll a "1." And now you roll the same die 6000 more times. Here is the average number of rolls you can expect for each possibility:

1. 1001
2. 1000
3. 1000
4. 1000
5. 1000
6. 1000

Now it's extremely unlikely you would hit those figures due do normal variance. But that's the average of what you can expect after 6001 rolls knowing that your rolled a 1 on the first roll. The expected averages for each result would change with each successive roll. However, the odds for any given number on any given roll remains at 1 in 6.

Some might argue your odds of getting two 1's in a row is only 1/36, and they are right. However, your odds of getting any combination (e.g., 1 followed by a 2, or 1 followed by a 3) is also 1/36. Furthermore, after you roll the first one, your odds of getting two 1's in a row is now 1/6--exactly the same odds you had of rolling your first one.
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alk58

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Re: How Bad Can You Be?

PostSun Dec 28, 2014 11:18 pm

make me understand. lets take the 2009 Hanley Ramirez and Tulowitski. If you could have your pick tell me who and why based on math? that is how I learn.
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alk58

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Re: How Bad Can You Be?

PostSun Dec 28, 2014 11:21 pm

coyote303 wrote:
alk58 wrote:This is what I thought you would say, call me what ever you want its not all Mathematical it cant be just that I refuse to believe it.
we will have to agree to disagree :D


Sorry, alk, but there is opinion and then there are facts. You may choose to believe anyway that it matters which column a hitter has their hits in; that's your right. However, it's your right to be wrong!
Thanks very kind of you :lol:
Computer-generated dice (or real dice) don't have memory. Casinos make millions of dollars off of those who believe that they do!

Citing the law of averages is a flawed argument. Look at it this way: Let's say you roll a "1." And now you roll the same die 6000 more times. Here is the average number of rolls you can expect for each possibility:

1. 1001
2. 1000
3. 1000
4. 1000
5. 1000
6. 1000

Now it's extremely unlikely you would hit those figures due do normal variance. But that's the average of what you can expect after 6001 rolls knowing that your rolled a 1 on the first roll. The expected averages for each result would change with each successive roll. However, the odds for any given number on any given roll remains at 1 in 6.

Some might argue your odds of getting two 1's in a row is only 1/36, and they are right. However, your odds of getting any combination (e.g., 1 followed by a 2, or 1 followed by a 3) is also 1/36. Furthermore, after you roll the first one, your odds of getting two 1's in a row is now 1/6--exactly the same odds you had of rolling your first one.

I understand that concept. There is something about this game that makes it all not math.
Please send all PM's to allank58@gmail.com
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Badjam

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Re: How Bad Can You Be?

PostSun Dec 28, 2014 11:25 pm

I'll bite. Tulo. Better D, more power. That "1" at short will make up for .040 in batting average.
Last edited by Badjam on Sun Dec 28, 2014 11:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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