Hot Stove

Today's Smith for Maurer trade helps both teams considering their needs but I prefer the Padres' side of the deal on long term upside grounds

Your views on "upside" keep changing. In your analysis of the Gregorius trade, you incorrectly said Shane Greene had greater upside than Robbie Ray because of his big league performance:

Greene as a pitcher will carry higher risk than Gregorious but undeniably has higher upside given his 2014 Yankee performance.

But now you say Maurer, who has never performed well in the bigs has greater upside than Smith, who has. That's contradictory. I do, however, agree with your current perspective. In the same way the harder-throwing Ray has a greater upside than Greene, the hard-throwing Maurer has a greater upside than Smith. However, Maurer's command, control, and performance for the M's was awful and, unlike Smith, there's a good chance he never reaches that upside.

No my views on upside haven't changed one bit. In this particular trade I evaluate Mauer's upside to tip the balance in favor of San Diego overall, yet I judge it a win win trade based on both teams current needs. The primary different between this and the Gregorious-Greene trade that you referenced is the Yankees got a young, cost controlled shortstop in the deal whereas the Mariners got a 32 year old platoon outfielder. Gregorious himself has long term value that Smith lacks (in my opinion of course) and that helps to tip the overall trade value in the Yankees favor compared to the Mariners.

You make the common mistake of asserting that a partial defense that I make of one trade creates a generalized rule that I am bound by when evaluating future trades. All trades must be evaluated on their own merits, based on the particular cost-benefits in each trade. My analysis of "who won" may differ from yours, but that's a different story.

No my views on upside haven't changed one bit. In this particular trade I evaluate Mauer's upside to tip the balance in favor of San Diego overall, yet I judge it a win win trade based on both teams current needs.

Your views absolutely changed. As I showed in the Greene trade, you asserted upside was based on MLB performance and mistakenly said Greene had greater upside than Robbie Ray. Now, in the Maurer trade, you say a player with terrible MLB performance has greater upside based on his potential. That is a clear contradiction. So, you either changed your views, or your analysis of the Maurer trade is hypocritical

The primary different between this and the Gregorious-Greene trade that you referenced is the Yankees got a young, cost controlled shortstop in the deal whereas the Mariners got a 32 year old platoon outfielder. Gregorious himself has long term value that Smith lacks (in my opinion of course) and that helps to tip the overall trade value in the Yankees favor compared to the Mariners.

This is irrelevant to your Greene-Ray comparison. You clearly said Greene had greater upside than Ray--who has better stuff--because of MLB experience, which makes your Maurer trade analysis hypocritical. It also shows Arizona got the pitcher with better upside, as well as the better deal. Gregorius is irrelevant to the comparison between the pitchers.

You make the common mistake of asserting that a partial defense that I make of one trade creates a generalized rule that I am bound by when evaluating future trades. All trades must be evaluated on their own merits, based on the particular cost-benefits in each trade. My analysis of "who won" may differ from yours, but that's a different

I made no mistake at all. I pointed out your common mistake of undermining your arguments by contradicting your asserted principles. All trades must be evaluated on their own merits, but they must be evaluated on consistent principles. You have clearly shown through your hypocritical contradictions you have difficulty doing that.

whatever, I am happy that the Mariners now have RF covered, have 6 SP's to start the season and still have the kids Paxton, Walker, Miller et al.

decent offseason for Z in my opinion. One can argue how good Cruz will be in Safeco but he has a good chance to be better than Morales/Hart and whomever else bumbled around at DH last year for the M's. Don't know about buying World Series tickets but they should be more entertaining to follow next year. But sometimes you win, sometimes you lose and sometimes it rains.

Lol I said nothing of the sort Strether. You make incredibly funny inferences. The fact that in one example I extolled Greene's performance at the MLB level does not mean, or imply, that I am blind to the upside of players who haven't achieved MLB success yet. In Ray's particular case his control history is absolute garbage, and I simply disagree with your premise that Ray's "stuff" is better than Greene's. In the present trade, Maurer is 8 years younger than Seth Smith and under control for several additional years. Of course he has greater long term upside than Smith regardless of his MLB pitching record, which is actually fairly sound on the predictive "peripheral" stats but BABIP unlucky. Even so, the M's are playing to "win now" , and so they correctly sought to improve their OF with Smith. As I said, it's a win-win.

You want so badly to be seen as "right" that you overlook that your arguments are verbose renderings of the kindergarten "no you're wrong I'm right" variety. I sincerely hope that the New Year brings you greater mental health and happiness and the ability to stay away from these boards rather than compulsively responding with nonsense to all postings. Seriously, get some professional help; no ill intent behind that comment.

In other news I think the Phillies did well to get Lively for 2 years of the 37 year old Marlon Byrd. He doesn't profile as an ace but has some mid rotation potential. They aren't going anywhere for the duration of Byrd's contract anyway.

Lance, it's the best offseason that I can remember Jack Z having. The Seager contract in particular looks like a tremendous bargain considering what Pablo, Hanley, and Headley got. The Smith trade helps them "win now". Rumor has it that they are "in" on Shields and Scherzer too. While those are bound to be overpays, the Mariners appear to me to be the best team in the AL at present. It's been a looooong time since I could say that with a straight face.

The only one who needs professional help, teamnasty, is you. Your orgiastic rant of denial just proved it. You clearly have logic and memory problems, along with your mental ones, so I will both refresh your memory and simplify things for you.

Here we go. In your comparison of Shane Greene vs. Robbie Ray, you incorrectly argue mlb performance determines upside

Greene as a pitcher will carry higher risk than Gregorious but undeniably has higher upside given his 2014 Yankee performance.

Then you contradict that assertion by praising Maurer's upside whose MLB performance was terrible:

Today's Smith for Maurer trade helps both teams considering their needs but I prefer the Padres' side of the deal on long term upside grounds

QED. You directly contradicted yourself, making yourself a shameless hypocrite, as well as a poor trade analyst.


P.s. Youth does not equal upside, and Ray's stuff is better than Greene's. Go read Baseball America for verification.

Now Beane trades for Zobrist and Escobar. Just...wow.

Now Beane trades for Zobrist and Escobar. Just...wow.

I gotta couple of guys in my keeper leagues that are like this.

One thing is for sure, if I played for the A's, I'd rent.

Good trade for both teams, particularly Tampa Bay. Billy Beane is clearly not giving up on this season, and he gets a new solid keystone combo with Zobrist being a perfect A's/Beane player. They now can let Semien be the super-sub without the pressure of starting at shortstop, they move the defensively superior Vogt to the starting catcher job, and Franklin Barreto--acquired for Donaldson--replaces Robertson as the A's shortstop of the future.

The Rays get a blue-chip, solid-hitting shortstop prospect in Robertson, who automatically becomes their SS of the future, and a solid upgrade at catcher in Jaso for a player who would have been gone in a year and another who was already aggravating the Rays. This also gives them the chance to break in Franklin at second, while Cabrera keeps SS warm for Robertson or Hak-Ju Lee.