Current odds to win the 2015 World Series

he extolled not counting hit chances or using precise rating guides so he could mystically enjoy "interpreting' a card instead.

If you want to think my method of interpreting a card is "mystical" go ahead. I win most of my games, and 2-5 championships a year, with it. I also made the playoffs twice and won one league in the 2013 tourney, so I do ok there, too. You obviously have to rely on ratings guides and/or counting cards to win. So, the "loser's lament" is actually yours.

You, however, still haven't shown how your "non-arbitrary" system works. So, your system is obviously arbitrary, or you don't really have a system at all. I'm good with either...

Teamnasty,

Good proposition on the top 6 vs the 24 field. It is about an even proposition. I'll go with one of the six. And yes, it is true statistically, that playing the wild card extra game roughly halves your probability of winning the world series- (approximately 1 in 16 ). Your assumptions are valid- in a robust way, especially in January.

I just wonder if Atlanta wouldn't win more than once in 200 years (199-1)? Imagine the first season beginning in 1815 and played out for 200 years (same as simming 200 times). Or Minnesota in 1000 years, although a 1000 to 1 might be understating the odds. Good work.

Thanks Terry. I had to actually "jimmy" the odds that my system spit out for the Twins and Astros. They were astronomical lol. My instinct is that the system was underrating them somewhat.

Anyway, I will tweak this as the season approaches and more free agents land on teams. My instinct is to take the "field" against the top 6, but yes I designed it to be a tough call.

Happy New Year.

I should also state that my current estimates are 1 part Steamer, 1 part me, 1/2 zips, and no pecota which hasn't released it's predictions yet.

I think there is a lot of work to be done at the bottom of the table. I think I'm being too bearish on the Rangers, and too bullish on the Phillies. But more on that later.

Can I just pick the AL Central? That division snuck up on everyone. 4 teams with a chance to win 90 and Twins have a shot at 80, I am a Giants fan but the signing of McGahee at 3B was sad. They could have stayed in house with Arias or Duffy and got the 4 homers in 620 at bats that McGahee brings. I still think they should put Posey there. Either that or you have to trade Belt in couple years or move him or Posey to left to get him out of the squat. Odd numbered year so I will take AL Central. They may have 3 teams in playoffs.

I missed this post, Gene. I, myself, am cool with the McGehee signing. Neither Arias or Duffy have shown enough with the bat to merit a full-time 3b job, much less with a World Series defending team. They are both utility material. With McGhehee's bat-control and gap power, he could easily produce a .280/.350/.380-.400 line with 10-15 hrs and 80 rbis, and he came cheap.

Posey has made it absolutely clear he is not moving from catcher. That's mostly because he loves the position, but I doubt he isn't aware he has a HOF chance at catcher and little of one at 3b, as well as a greater salary at the position. When he does move, however, I'm sure it will be to 3b instead of LF. If he does go to LF, Christian Arroyo is probably the Giants' 3b of the future.

I should also state that my current estimates are 1 part Steamer, 1 part me, 1/2 zips, and no pecota which hasn't released it's predictions yet.

This is very interesting but you still don't say which part applies to which aspects of your system. Again, the best way to show your system is to apply it to one team or division to show everyone how it works. Just give an example.

I think the Cubs are a year away but are certainly improved enough to compete for the 2nd wild card spot. By 2016, watch out, they will likely enter a 3-5 year period where they and the Dodgers (and maybe Nats) absolutely terrorize the National league. The AL East is the hardest division to predict of all; all 5 rosters are talented without being dominant. Gun to head now, I think the Yankees get shut out of yet another postseason (although on a cheaper budget, with a younger team building for future) while the Red Sox prevail. But the level of certainty there is minimal.

Totally agree on the Cubs...I'd throw SD into the mix, if only because of their newfound desire to wheel and deal, although they do seem to be building a power hitting club in a pitchers park. They'll be interesting to keep an eye on.

AL East, now that may be the most fun to watch all year in terms of competetive balance. I'm a Sox fan, but worry about the pitching. I think all 5 teams may spend time in first...good stuff!

For your odds, if I was in Vegas I'd be willing to drop a $100 on the White Sox and Cubs as dark horses, $50 on SD out of curiosity, and id agree on the Nats as the favorite.

Key: Yes the AL east is the hardest to predict, and frankly it has been that way for several years. The Red Sox were about a 65:1 shot to win the world series before the 2013 season. Their series of mid level free agent signings were largely panned in the sabrmetric community yet they built a team with no weaknesses (and a large measure of luck) to win it all. It's noteworthy that their 2012 and 2014 teams were pretty lousy, suggesting further that the 2013 success was catching lightning in a bottle. But they are legitimately, if expensively, improved for next year.

Then there are the Orioles who have repeatedly defied sabrmetric prediction for several years. It's time to build in a Showalter upward adjustment to prediction systems, much as Baseball prospectus gave an edge to Larussa teams for several years. Even the Rays' core of young talent has high upside, although if they deal Zobrist it might be a large nail in their 2015 chances. The Blue Jays may have had the most efficient offseason of all. Cashman has made a series of under the radar moderate moves to improve team defense and team age. It's gonna be interesting.

I'm gonna say East finishes:

Blue Jays
Red Sox
Rays
Orioles
Yankees

I think the top 4 could finish in any order though, and I feel most comfortable with the Yanks in 5th though. I like the pitching potential of the Yanks if Tanaka and Pineda come back to form injury-free, along with Nova, that's a very solid front 3, but I think they're in for a long year on offense...reminiscent of the 2014 Red Sox.