Current odds to win the 2015 World Series

Good stuff Teamnasty! Last I checked this is NOT a statistics class and you do not have to show your work to anyone! Let the fun debating and predicting continue! And I really hope you are right about the Indians! Merry New Year Some More!

Nobody said this was a statistics class. Your reading again. RB; I know it can improve...

And nobody "has" to do anything. However, TN did claim to have a particular system for evaluating teams:

The hard part is making an initial prediction about how many games a team is likely to win at season's end. That's also the fun part. I have my own "system" for doing that

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When someone claims to have a system for evaluating teams, it is normal for people to ask what the system is or how it works. All I asked TN to do was to show how he evaluated one team. If he truly believed in his system, he would have had no problem doing so. Apparently he doesn't believe in his system enough, and that's his prerogative.

If he truly believed in his system, he would have had no problem doing so. Apparently he doesn't believe in his system enough, and that's his prerogative.

Assumptive and arrogant as ever

Steve, let's keep this New Year's Day cordial...no hostility.

Anyone who believes in their system would have no problem sharing it. That' just logical, not assumptive. If you can show otherwise, I will gladly stand corrected.

Happy New Years.

The East finish is going to be a wild one. I looked at the AL East and decided to do my whole predictions. I, too will retain a Scherzer adjustment option. They are as follows:

AL East-------------------------------------------------AL Central---------------------------------- AL West
1. Boston (Cherington revamp works)--------------1.Chicago (amazing off-season rebuild)--1.Sea (all comes together)
2, Baltimore (Pitching, D, O still there)------------2. Detroit (Simon, Cespedes help)---------2.Laa (pitching regresses)
3. Toronto (JD pickup huge, Stroman new ace)---3. Kansas City (AL champs sill strong)-----3.Oak (BB rebuilds)
4. New York (Pitching solid, O sketchy)------------4. Cleveland (soft lineup, need Lindor)----4.Tex (gets healthier)
5. Tampa Bay (rebuilding with shaky lineup)------5. Minnesota (Waiting on Buxton, Sano)---5. Hou (growing pains)

AL Wild Cards: Detroit and Baltimore
AL Championship: Seattle and Boston
AL Champion: Boston
AL MVP: Jose Abreu, CHI
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale, CHI
AL Rookie-of-the-year: Steven Souza, Tampa Bay

NL East-------------------------------------------- NL Central------------------------------------NL West
1. Washington (not even close any more)-----1.St. Louis (still the elite, watch Wong)-1. LA (Kendrick, Pedersen added)
2. Miami (Pitching, D, youth, excitement)----2.Chicago (Lester, young talent, Theo)--2. SF (Cain's return huge)
3. Atlanta (talented rebuilding year: Peraza)-3. Pittsburgh (depends on young talent)--3. SD (Upton, Upton, Upton)
4. New York (Improved enough to be so-so)--4. Milwaukee (solid rotation and bats)---4. CO (pitching still weak)
5. Philadelphia (Why is Ruben still working?)-5.Cincinatti (getting older, weaker)------5. AR (very weak lineup)

NL Wild Cards: Chicago and SF
NL Championship: Washington vs. LA
NL Champion: Washington
NL MVP: Anthony Rendon, Washington
NL CY Young: Clayton Kershaw, LA
NL Rookie-of-the-Year: Aaron Nola, Philadelphia

World Series Champion: Washington

At those odds I would take the Rangers.

Hey Mr. Nostradamus...I mean Mr. Strether, it's time to put your money where your mouth is. I have six individual wagers to offer you given your assuredly non-arbitrary predictions above and in other threads like "hot stove". By the way, thanks for agreeing with me about 90% of the time, I expected far less given how much of an arbitrary moron I supposedly am.

Let's put a Strat online 2014 team credit on the line for each proposition, so if it finishes 3-3 it's a wash, but if somebody finishes 4-2 they are owed 2 teams by the loser, 4 teams for 5-1, and 6 for 6-0. We will be on our "honor" to make good if we lose the bets since they are otherwise unenforceable. Pay-up date should be 12/1/15.

Since my system is trash and arbitrary I'm sure you'll happily accept my wagers since your system is undoubtedly grounded in metaphysical certainty. Plus, you're a PHD undoubtedly smarter than myself and everyone else on the board. Candy from a baby I'm sure.

The wagers are as follows:

1. You predict the White Sox to finish ahead of Cleveland, so I'll take the Cleveland side of that proposition and wager 1 credit that they'll have a better end of regular season record than the White Sox. In event of a tie record, it's a push and neither of us win this bet. Similar rule applies to propositions 2-6 below.

2. You predict that the Cubs will finish ahead the Pittsburgh Pirates, so I'll take Pittsburgh to have a better end of season record than the Cubs. 1 credit on the line

3. You predict that Baltimore will finish ahead of the Anaheim Angels, so I'll take Anaheim to have a better end of season record than Baltimore. 1 credit on the line.

4. You predict that Heyward sucks and that Atlanta won the trade for Shelby Miller, so I'll wager that Jason Heyward will have a higher Fangraphs W.A.R.P. score at the end of the regular season than Shelby Miller. 1 credit on the line.

5. I'll wager that Giancarlo Stanton will finish higher in the MVP voting than your boy Anthony Rendon. 1 credit on the line.

6. I'll wager that Bryce Harper will finish higher in the MVP voting than Anthony Rendon. 1 credit on the line.

It's man up time son. I'm awaiting your response (which is normally so prompt too).

TN

Hey Mr. Nostradamus...I mean Mr. Strether, it's time to put your money where your mouth is. I have six individual wagers to offer you given your assuredly non-arbitrary predictions above and in other threads like "hot stove". By the way, thanks for agreeing with me about 90% of the time, I expected far less given how much of an arbitrary moron I supposedly am.

First of all, put away the childish nicknames and hostility. I'm relaxing with my family for the remainder of the holidays; I assume you're doing the same. Also, I didn't agree with you 90% of the time and I never said you were an "arbitrary moron." Those were your words. I just wanted to see your system you refused to show me. As I said before, that's your prerogative.

I never claimed to have a rigid system, much less one with "metaphysical certainty." I evaluate teams' hitting, defense, starting staffs, and rotations, then I compare those evaluations with other teams in their division. It certainly isn't Bill James, but since I keep knowledgeable on teams and their prospects throughout the year, it usually works for me. As to my Ph.D., its in English literature with an emphasis on Modernism/Philosophy. So I am pretty smart in those areas, but I'm sure you and other forum members are smarter than me in other ones.

I don't see wagers as a place to "man up," but I'll make a few with you. I had imagined you were older than me, but there's no way I'm calling you "Pops."...

I'll take your White Sox/Cleveland bet and your Cubs/Pirates bet. I never said Baltimore would finish ahead of the Angels, and I'm not going to bet on a hypothetical meeting between the two. I also never predicted that Heyward would suck; I correctly said Atlanta got the better deal. So, I'm not making that WAR bet, either. I also don't like making awards bets, except for betting on Kershaw, but I will take your Harper/Rendon bet. So, we have three bets going and all is well.

I hope the rest of your holidays are joyful.

Thank you for completely punking out publically on 3 of the 6 wagers, that's a .500 punk-out batting average, better than I expected frankly. We have confirmed wagers on the other 3, good luck, and you have my word of honor to pay up by transferring credits to your account if I lose by 12/1/15.

But please save the nonsense claim about not picking Baltimore over Anaheim since you named Baltimore as one of your wild card teams and don't have Anaheim advancing to the postseason at all. "QED", you asserted that Baltimore would have a better regular season record than Anaheim but lack the courage to back that up. Also, "if you really believed in your system" you'd also accept the Stanton-Rendon and Heyward-Miller wagers but I do sense that half the time you're just being hostile and confrontational for it's own sake. Because that's what angry trolls who lack the courage of their convictions do: talk big on the internet, then back down from backing their statements when something real is on the line.

Happy New Year to you too...

Hey Mr. Nostradamus...I mean Mr. Strether, it's time to put your money where your mouth is. I have six individual wagers to offer you given your assuredly non-arbitrary predictions above and in other threads like "hot stove". By the way, thanks for agreeing with me about 90% of the time, I expected far less given how much of an arbitrary moron I supposedly am.

First of all, put away the childish nicknames and hostility. I'm relaxing with my family for the remainder of the holidays; I assume you're doing the same. Also, I didn't agree with you 90% of the time and I never said you were an "arbitrary moron." Those were your words. I just wanted to see your system you refused to show me. As I said before, that's your prerogative.

I never claimed to have a rigid system, much less one with "metaphysical certainty." I evaluate teams' hitting, defense, starting staffs, and rotations, then I compare those evaluations with other teams in their division. It certainly isn't Bill James, but since I keep knowledgeable on teams and their prospects throughout the year, it usually works for me. As to my Ph.D., its in English literature with an emphasis on Modernism/Philosophy. So I am pretty smart in those areas, but I'm sure you and other forum members are smarter than me in other ones.

I don't see wagers as a place to "man up," but I'll make a few with you. I had imagined you were older than me, but there's no way I'm calling you "Pops."...

I'll take your White Sox/Cleveland bet and your Cubs/Pirates bet. I never said Baltimore would finish ahead of the Angels, and I'm not going to bet on a hypothetical meeting between the two. I also never predicted that Heyward would suck; I correctly said Atlanta got the better deal. So, I'm not making that WAR bet, either. I also don't like making awards bets, except for betting on Kershaw, but I will take your Harper/Rendon bet. So, we have three bets going and all is well.

I hope the rest of your holidays are joyful.

The only one who needs professional help, teamnasty, is you. Your orgiastic rant of denial just proved it. You clearly have logic and memory problems, along with your mental ones, so I will both refresh your memory and simplify things for you.

Here we go. In your comparison of Shane Greene vs. Robbie Ray, you incorrectly argue mlb performance determines upside

Greene as a pitcher will carry higher risk than Gregorious but undeniably has higher upside given his 2014 Yankee performance.

Then you contradict that assertion by praising Maurer's upside whose MLB performance was terrible:

Today's Smith for Maurer trade helps both teams considering their needs but I prefer the Padres' side of the deal on long term upside grounds

QED. You directly contradicted yourself, making yourself a shameless hypocrite, as well as a poor trade analyst.

So, go get that professional help you need, Giggles. It won''t help your middling intelligence and poor language skills, but it might help your sad delusions...


P.s. Youth does not equal upside, and Ray's stuff is better than Greene's. Go read Baseball America for verification.

Speaks for itself.