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Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:30 pm
Estimating Chris Davis' card, 2014
Just for fun, just before the ratings download becomes available sometime this week, here is my (very rough) estimate of Chris Davis' 2014 card:
vs LHP:
HBP - 4 die roll chances
Walks - 7 die roll chances
Singles - 0 die roll chances
Doubles - 4.8 die roll chances
Triples - 0
Homeruns (pure die roll chances) - 4.75 die roll chances
Ballpark homerun readings (die roll chances) - 8 die roll chances
No ballpark singles vs LHP
vs RHP:
HBP - 4 die roll chances
Walks - 16 die roll chances
Singles - .7 die roll chances
Doubles - .1 die roll chances
Triples - 0
Homeruns (pure die roll chances) - 3.9 die roll chances
Ballpark homerun readings (die roll chances) - 6 die roll chances
Est. that he will have ballpark singles vs RHP
Caveats - 1) There is a possibility that strat will remove his scanty single chances and ballpark singles from his card vs RHP, since he is so far below the threshold vs LHP that they might deduct the shortfall from his singles vs. RHP. If so, he will have no singles or ballpark singles vs RHP.
2) As with my estimates last year, I am assuming that the ballpark effects remain the same from 2013 to 2014, at Camden yards (I also take into account average ballparks for road games). This could have a moderate effect on his card, up or down, but more likely up (if Camden's lefty HR chances go down from 2013).
My methodology was laid out last year. I'll try to provide a link. I was fairly accurate last year.
Other estimates re his cards (excluding ballpark effects):
vs LHP - Hits - 9.55; OB - 20.55; Total bases - 28.6
vs RHP - Hits - 4.7; OB - 24.7; Total bases - 17.2
As noted above, the big question in my mind is whether the singles and ballpark singles vs RHP will be reduced or eliminated, in order to get the right overall performance for singles.
As was the case last year, I think it will be interesting to see how the actual card stats compare, with the ratings download being available sometime this week.
Just for fun, just before the ratings download becomes available sometime this week, here is my (very rough) estimate of Chris Davis' 2014 card:
vs LHP:
HBP - 4 die roll chances
Walks - 7 die roll chances
Singles - 0 die roll chances
Doubles - 4.8 die roll chances
Triples - 0
Homeruns (pure die roll chances) - 4.75 die roll chances
Ballpark homerun readings (die roll chances) - 8 die roll chances
No ballpark singles vs LHP
vs RHP:
HBP - 4 die roll chances
Walks - 16 die roll chances
Singles - .7 die roll chances
Doubles - .1 die roll chances
Triples - 0
Homeruns (pure die roll chances) - 3.9 die roll chances
Ballpark homerun readings (die roll chances) - 6 die roll chances
Est. that he will have ballpark singles vs RHP
Caveats - 1) There is a possibility that strat will remove his scanty single chances and ballpark singles from his card vs RHP, since he is so far below the threshold vs LHP that they might deduct the shortfall from his singles vs. RHP. If so, he will have no singles or ballpark singles vs RHP.
2) As with my estimates last year, I am assuming that the ballpark effects remain the same from 2013 to 2014, at Camden yards (I also take into account average ballparks for road games). This could have a moderate effect on his card, up or down, but more likely up (if Camden's lefty HR chances go down from 2013).
My methodology was laid out last year. I'll try to provide a link. I was fairly accurate last year.
Other estimates re his cards (excluding ballpark effects):
vs LHP - Hits - 9.55; OB - 20.55; Total bases - 28.6
vs RHP - Hits - 4.7; OB - 24.7; Total bases - 17.2
As noted above, the big question in my mind is whether the singles and ballpark singles vs RHP will be reduced or eliminated, in order to get the right overall performance for singles.
As was the case last year, I think it will be interesting to see how the actual card stats compare, with the ratings download being available sometime this week.
Geoff