Estimating Chris Davis' card, 2014

per scumbyjr, the ratings book is now out!

per scumbyjr, the ratings book is now out!

Your Chris Davis HR prediction nearly on the money
LHP 5.7*,
RHP 4.4, 5*

Estimating Posey's 2014 card:

vs LHP

HBP - 1
walk - 2
single - 19.3
double - 6.4
triple - 0
HR pure - 5.2
Ballpark homerun chances - 8

vs RHP

HBP - 1
walk - 10
single - 24.7
double - 4.05
triple - .05
HR - pure - 2.9
HR - ballpark HR chances - 8

The trickiest part with Posey is taking into account playing in AT&T. Using the 2013 ballpark effects (6/6/1/1), and a rough average for NL parks for 2013 (for road games), it means that Posey's pure homerun chances are going to be fairly high, mathematically, in relation to the ballpark-effected ballpark homeruns. E.g. using .225 (4.5 out of 20) as an average ballpark effect, that means that his estimated ballpark homerun chances times ballpark effects is only 1.8 ballpark homeruns versus each of lefties or righties (i.e. 8 times .225 = 1.8). Because he plays in AT&T, the pure homeruns have to "pick up the slack" in order to get the approximately right amount of homeruns for his real life plate appearances, playing half his games in AT&T.

I've followed a similar process for ballpark singles, but of course the effect is not as dramatic as it is for homeruns at AT&T.

Estimated L-R balance is E - Even.

Posey RHP -3, 6

Estimating Chris Davis' card, 2014

Just for fun, just before the ratings download becomes available sometime this week, here is my (very rough) estimate of Chris Davis' 2014 card:

vs LHP:

HBP - 4 die roll chances
Walks - 7 die roll chances
Singles - 0 die roll chances
Doubles - 4.8 die roll chances
Triples - 0
Homeruns (pure die roll chances) - 4.75 die roll chances
Ballpark homerun readings (die roll chances) - 8 die roll chances

No ballpark singles vs LHP

vs RHP:

HBP - 4 die roll chances
Walks - 16 die roll chances
Singles - .7 die roll chances
Doubles - .1 die roll chances
Triples - 0
Homeruns (pure die roll chances) - 3.9 die roll chances
Ballpark homerun readings (die roll chances) - 6 die roll chances

Est. that he will have ballpark singles vs RHP

Caveats - 1) There is a possibility that strat will remove his scanty single chances and ballpark singles from his card vs RHP, since he is so far below the threshold vs LHP that they might deduct the shortfall from his singles vs. RHP. If so, he will have no singles or ballpark singles vs RHP.
2) As with my estimates last year, I am assuming that the ballpark effects remain the same from 2013 to 2014, at Camden yards (I also take into account average ballparks for road games). This could have a moderate effect on his card, up or down, but more likely up (if Camden's lefty HR chances go down from 2013).

My methodology was laid out last year. I'll try to provide a link. I was fairly accurate last year.

Other estimates re his cards (excluding ballpark effects):

vs LHP - Hits - 9.55; OB - 20.55; Total bases - 28.6
vs RHP - Hits - 4.7; OB - 24.7; Total bases - 17.2

As noted above, the big question in my mind is whether the singles and ballpark singles vs RHP will be reduced or eliminated, in order to get the right overall performance for singles.

As was the case last year, I think it will be interesting to see how the actual card stats compare, with the ratings download being available sometime this week.

vs LHP

Hits 7.4
On base 17.4
Total bases 24.8
Pure Homeruns 5
Ballpark home runs 7
Ballpark singles - none

vs RHP
hits 8.4
On base 29.4
Total bases 22.8
Homeruns 4.4
Ballpark homeruns 5
Ballpark singles - none

Not bad, but not as close as I thought I might be. I was right about one particular thing (I think) - that he might have had ballpark singles vs RHP, but I think they changed it to no ballpark singles in order to get the total singles hitting performance right (i.e. total regardless of pitcher throwing hand).

I'm inferring mathematically that his hits vs RHP are as follows:
Singles - 2.8
Doubles - 1.2
Homeruns (given by ratings book) - 4.4

This works out to total bases of 22.8 per the ratings book. Hits are given as 8.4.

My guess is that HBP might be 4 die roll chances. With OB of 29.4, and hits of 8.4, that would mean 17 walks vs. RHP.

Estimating Chris Davis' card, 2014

Just for fun, just before the ratings download becomes available sometime this week, here is my (very rough) estimate of Chris Davis' 2014 card:

vs LHP:

HBP - 4 die roll chances
Walks - 7 die roll chances
Singles - 0 die roll chances
Doubles - 4.8 die roll chances
Triples - 0
Homeruns (pure die roll chances) - 4.75 die roll chances
Ballpark homerun readings (die roll chances) - 8 die roll chances

No ballpark singles vs LHP

vs RHP:

HBP - 4 die roll chances
Walks - 16 die roll chances
Singles - .7 die roll chances
Doubles - .1 die roll chances
Triples - 0
Homeruns (pure die roll chances) - 3.9 die roll chances
Ballpark homerun readings (die roll chances) - 6 die roll chances

Est. that he will have ballpark singles vs RHP

Caveats - 1) There is a possibility that strat will remove his scanty single chances and ballpark singles from his card vs RHP, since he is so far below the threshold vs LHP that they might deduct the shortfall from his singles vs. RHP. If so, he will have no singles or ballpark singles vs RHP.
2) As with my estimates last year, I am assuming that the ballpark effects remain the same from 2013 to 2014, at Camden yards (I also take into account average ballparks for road games). This could have a moderate effect on his card, up or down, but more likely up (if Camden's lefty HR chances go down from 2013).

My methodology was laid out last year. I'll try to provide a link. I was fairly accurate last year.

Other estimates re his cards (excluding ballpark effects):

vs LHP - Hits - 9.55; OB - 20.55; Total bases - 28.6
vs RHP - Hits - 4.7; OB - 24.7; Total bases - 17.2

As noted above, the big question in my mind is whether the singles and ballpark singles vs RHP will be reduced or eliminated, in order to get the right overall performance for singles.

As was the case last year, I think it will be interesting to see how the actual card stats compare, with the ratings download being available sometime this week.

vs LHP

Hits 7.4
On base 17.4
Total bases 24.8
Pure Homeruns 5
Ballpark home runs 7
Ballpark singles - none

vs RHP
hits 8.4
On base 29.4
Total bases 22.8
Homeruns 4.4
Ballpark homeruns 5
Ballpark singles - none

So...




In other words, not playable

^^^ My particular interest in Chris Davis is that I'd had him in one keeper league, and traded him away. But in another keeper league I traded some prospects to get him. I still think that Chris Davis has a lot of great baseball to play in the future, and I'm thinking he'll be really good in 2015 (bounce back year).

I recently read that he suffers from ADHD. In 2014 he was suspended late in the year for using Adderal, a banned substance, but which is a common medication for ADHD. Apparently, he had previously had clearance from MLB to use Adderal, but in 2014 somehow they didn't approve it. I'm not sure what the story is after that - whether he was using adderal or not throughout 2014 - but he ended up using it at some point when he tested positive for it, and got the suspension.

I know a lot of people that have ADHD, many of whom take adderal. My son has ADHD, but refuses to take medication.

Believe me, if Crash Davis wasn't using adderal for any part of 2014, I can sure understand why he had an off year.

If I remember correctly, I think the article said that he now has clearance again from MLB to use the drug, for his ADHD.

The next ten someone needs to estimate:

Justin Turner
Dellin Betances
Ken Giles
Jake Smolinski
Wade Davis
Aaron Sanchez
J.D. Martinez
Anthony Rizzo
Jake Arrieta
Neil Ramirez

Please let me know what your priority is for these, and I'll do them as I'm able to...until the ratings book is published (which is supposed to be soon). Geoff

Dellin Betances
Jake Smolinski
Ken Giles
Wade Davis
Justin Turner
Aaron Sanchez
Neil Ramirez
J.D. Martinez
Jake Arrieta
Anthony Rizzo.

rating guide is out, no more estimating!

I think that meds like that could have helped Jeff Francouer.

It was almost like his impulse control had him swinging at bad pitches knocked him out of the Show.