Hall Of Fame Vote

Petitte did have a great--but tainted--career, but I don't see him as the test case. Even without steroids, he had a 3.48 career ERA and had an over-4 in half of his seasons. Even considering when he pitched, those aren't "shoe-in" HOF career statistics. I also can't see the HOF forgiving such significant cheating because a player makes a Mea Culpa. That speaks well of the player as a man; it doesn't erase his cheating or the harm he did the game.

I do agree, however, that Braun will not be a test case. First of all, he most likely will not even have the statistics to merit inclusion. Secondly, he compounded his cheating with the loathsome slandering of an innocent lab tester. That is quite a combo for HOF exclusion.

Finally, I don't believe there are clear rules exactly defining what is cheating and what isn't. The Character clause function as a "living" character clause in the way Jefferson envisioned our constitution as a living constitution. In other words, it's a flexible, organic arbiter allowing itself change to accommodate unanticipated ways of cheating or harming the game, such as PEDs. So, voters are supposed to use their knowledge of game rules, baseball ethics, and general ethics to interpret the clause in making their votes.

I don't buy the argument that some have cheated and gotten into the HOF therefore all cheating for future players is OK and should be awarded.

Agreed.

One question (for anyone): How much (if any) cheating is allowed for Hall induction? Should a Ryan Braun forget about having HOF recognition because of his known past violations?

I think the test case for this type of action/player will be Petitte not Braun. Pettite was such a key part of all those Yankee post season success's I think he'd be a shoe in if not for the PED's, It will be interesting to see if his Mea Culpa, has and effect on his candidacy.

Pettite will certainly come first, but in mind he is not Hall worthy regardless. Braun may not be either, he just came to mind as a former MVP winner and having led the league in different years in some highly regarded stat categories. But the last couple years have been pretty unremarkable.

Pettite has an interesting, tough HOF case. He's right on the WARP border of minimally acceptable candidates with 60+ on his career, but his postseason resume is impressive on quantity and quality too, having pitched 270+ innings , going 19-11 with a decent 3.80 ERA. My problem with his candidacy is that there are several more impressive players on the outside looking in that I'd want to induct first: Schilling, Mussina, Piazza, Bagwell and yes Bonds and Clemens. Trammell, Raines, I could go on for a while. But he was really durable and quite good for a very long time and pitched well in the postseason. That consists of a LOT of value, even if its a close call on a HOF vote.

I'm not the WAR guy you are TN, but isn't Pettitte's 60 relatively low for a potential HOF pitcher? It's roughly the same WAR as Luis Tiant's and Bret Saberhagen's, and lower than David Cone's.

Also, please explain how pitcher's WAR works as a measurement. I'm befuddled how Sandy Koufax could have a measly 53.2 and Mariano Rivera an unimpressive 56.6. I know Koufax had a short career, but shouldn't an efficient measurement account for his amazing performance?

Pettite has an interesting, tough HOF case. He's right on the WARP border of minimally acceptable candidates with 60+ on his career, but his postseason resume is impressive on quantity and quality too, having pitched 270+ innings , going 19-11 with a decent 3.80 ERA. My problem with his candidacy is that there are several more impressive players on the outside looking in that I'd want to induct first: Schilling, Mussina, Piazza, Bagwell and yes Bonds and Clemens. Trammell, Raines, I could go on for a while. But he was really durable and quite good for a very long time and pitched well in the postseason. That consists of a LOT of value, even if its a close call on a HOF vote.

I do not disagree, at all with any of your guys' arguments against his inclusion, nor do I believe he's a shoe-in for the hall, even if he did not have the PED spectre over his head. He's not a first ballot guy, but one i could see a gradual building of votes that gets him in after 7 or 8 years.

That said, his post season wins always seemed to be important games and there were so many of them. It can easily be argued that the Yankees, would not have won half the WS they did or even get to them, during his time on the time, with out him. Also he's a Yankee, and there's that whole east coast bias thing.

Believe me I'm NOT trying to argue for his inclusion, I loathe the Yankees, and I can see a case being built for him.

Yes, as I said in my comment, Pettite is on the low end of the WAR scale for HOFers. And I agree with you that peak WAR should also be considered , not just career WAR. Truly dominant pitchers like Koufax were much better than Pettite during the years they pitched, but obviously had much shorter careers due to the usage patterns of his day. That is properly a factor for HOF voters to employ in my view, and they do in fact do that. As an aside, we all know that Koufax pitched in fewer postseason games than Pettite, but was obviously completely dominant in the postseason. Another brick in the wall to consider.

As for short relievers like Mariano he's a first ballot guy in my view, but you must make adjustments for DH's and closers and catchers even. They all will have lower career WARP than position players generally because they play less. But the Hall should induct the best at those positions too in my opinion (the voters agree with me re: closers and catchers, but not yet DHs). A 56 warp for a closer is extraordinary, as Rivera was. He and Eck are HOF worthy in my opinion, perhaps Gossage. I'm very skeptical of the rest, including Hoffman. Although I wouldn't throw a tantrum if he was admitted, as long as room was made for the likes of Edgar Martinez too.

As far as explaining WARP in more detailed fashion as a measurement I'd refer you to fangraphs.com and baseballprospectus.com and baseballreference.com. I think those sites explain in extreme detail how their WARP scores are arrived at.

Good evening!

Niners, yeah I haven't really come to the opinion that Pettite is HOF worthy, but I do think he has a very tough case to either reject or accept out of hand. He's a close call for many of the reasons you stated.

Thanks for the explanations and references, TN. I will check them out.

Sure, let me amend what I said above. I don't think HOffman and 1 inning closers (Rivera is the one exception) are HOF worthy if they are kept in the same player pool with Schilling, Edgar, Piazza etc. If the HOF had a special category for 1 inning closers I'd say put him in. He just didn't throw that many innings in his career.