Hot Stove

By "core of talent" I meant on the major league roster not minors. Entering this offseason they had a major league core prepared to contend for the postseason in 2015: J.Upton, J.Heyward, A.Simmons, F.Freeman, E.Gattis, J.Teheran, M.Minor, A.Wood, C.Kimbrell is an excellent base that you can build around, rather than tear down just because the first two were in their walk years.

It's not an "excellent base to build around" without Heyward and Upton. A team doesn't just manage its organization around the next year. They weren't going to sign those two. So, instead of starting 2016 and beyond without them, they have a replenished minor league system instead of a barren one.

At least we agree they would have had started 2016 without Heyward and Upton and a a barren system if they hadn't traded them. Now, they get to start it without them and with a re-stocked system and a brighter future. That is an unquestionably better option.


P.s. Don't count the Braves out yet for 2015. They still have a rotation of Teheran, Minor, Miller, and Wood. They have Kimbrel closing; Freeman, Markakis, Simmons, and Upton (who knows?) in the lineup; and a superior defensive catcher in Bethancourt. A Wild Card is not out of their reach.

The team is going nowhere in 2015, mark it down. Absolutely nowhere. Their starting lineup looks something like this:


Markakis RF
Callaspo 2b
Freeman 1b
Johnson 3b
Upton Cf
Simmons SS
Bethancourt C
Costanza Lf (almost as "good" as Costanza on Seinfeld)


Punting 2015 to re-stock your double AA ranks isn't my cup of tea, but I certainly understand the counter argument. I just totally disagree with it. And I disagree that the core was insufficient for 2016 and beyond even assuming losses of Heyward and Upton. They'd gain two first round picks even from losing those players just by extending the qualifying offers. That's two players far more likely to have high upside than most of the minor leaguers they obtained via trade this offseason.

Subtracting those two guys still leaves you in our hypothetical with Simmons, Freeman, Gattis, the 3 starting pitchers and Kimbrell, but then in 2016 you can probably add Peraza, Bethancourt, or both to the core and you're still looking pretty good. Plus two first rounders.

Another point to make is that players' trade value jumps up at the trade deadline compared to the offseason. Contenders are much more likely to "overpay" with their best minor leaguers if they know they are contenders at the deadline (see Wheeler for Beltran, Russell for Samardzia) vs during an uncertain offseason (Semien for Samardjzia). So it's a better future play to play for "now" anyway; see if the core is good enough to contend, and if not, you ship Heyward and Upton off at the deadline for hauls better than guys coming off Tommy John or similar injury risks.

I think they packed it in too early is all.

Given that they punted 2015 however, I do like the return they got for Gattis.

Punting 2015 to re-stock your double AA ranks isn't my cup of tea, but I certainly understand the counter argument. I just totally disagree with it. And I disagree that the core was insufficient for 2016 and beyond even assuming losses of Heyward and Upton.

If you think the Braves stink now, you have to think the core was insufficient for 2016 and beyond. It would have essentially produced the same team you now disparage, except without the significant talent Hart brought in.
Also, Billy Beane has often "jeopardized" present seasons to restock his system. He traded Bailey, Cahill, and Gonzalez away in 2011 and only got one significant major leaguer, Reddick, in return. So, it's obviously "his" cup of tea. And like Beane, The Braves didn't just restock AA. They replenished their major league rotation and all levels of their system.

They'd gain two first round picks even from losing those players just by extending the qualifying offers. That's two players far more likely to have high upside than most of the minor leaguers they obtained via trade this offseason.

You have no idea that only two mid-low first-round picks from the likely teams signing Upton and Heyward would have higher upside than all the players they got. That's pure and unfounded speculation. You also have to explain someday what exactly you mean by upside. Two mid-low first round picks are not likely to have better combined upside than Miller, Foltenywicz, Ruiz, Fried (one of the top lhp prospects now), Jace Peterson, Dustin Peterson, and Jenkins. That would be quite a longshot.

Another point to make is that players' trade value jumps up at the trade deadline compared to the offseason. Contenders are much more likely to "overpay" with their best minor leaguers if they know they are contenders at the deadline (see Wheeler for Beltran, Russell for Samardzia) vs during an uncertain offseason (Semien for Samardjzia). So it's a better future play to play for "now" anyway; see if the core is good enough to contend, and if not, you ship Heyward and Upton off at the deadline for hauls better than guys coming off Tommy John or similar injury risks.

This isn't true at all. You really have to provide more evidence than Wheeler for Beltran, where the Giants overpaid in hope of a repeat. Teams usually don't get as much at mid-season as they do before the season starts. Teams are usually willing to pay more for a full season of a player than for a half a season of him. The fact teams no longer get picks for players acquired in mid-season has enhanced that. As to Samardzija, the A's paid for 11/2 years of him, not 1/2 a year, so it's not a comparable situation. The Braves would have most likely got less for Heyward and Upton if they had waited, almost everyone agrees on that.

I don't think they packed it in. I think they made the smart move and revitalized their sagging future.


P.s. We both agree on the Gattis trade.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fg-on-fo ... g-in-july/. And position players have less injury risk than pitchers who aren't dealt during the offseason.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fg-on-fox-the-risks-and-rewards-of-trading-in-july/. And position players have less injury risk than pitchers who aren't dealt during the offseason.

That's an interesting article about Hamels; I appreciate your sharing it. However, it doesn't counter any of my arguments from my previous post.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball ... um=twitter

Yep.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/heyward-open-to-talks-on-contract-if-cards-are/article_0b1b6901-b99f-51e6-81bc-7936e0ea7c52.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Yep.

Yep, what?

Giants sign Blanco for 2/7.5M. Another solid small move. But the clock is ticking on Scherzer and Shields.