Current odds to win the 2015 World Series

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l.strether

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Re: Current odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostSat Jan 03, 2015 5:55 pm

I completely agree. The boards are a place to discuss SOM, MLB, and even predictions. It is not a place for trolls to attack posters just because they won't bet with them.

Here's to hoping the New Year's brings more SOM and baseball discussions and less troll/personal attack posts.
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wavygravy2k

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Re: Current odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostSat Jan 03, 2015 10:46 pm

Valen wrote:
The only sure prediction, was somewhere around page 3 or 4, the thread would begin to turn sour.

It always will as long as there is someone willing to feed the trolls.
But trolls are like anything else that lives. Stop feeding them and they move on to better feeding grounds.


Agreed. It’s probably the best way to defeat a troll. Remember – a troll wants attention. If no one pays attention to their nonsense, eventually they’ll disappear.

What would be great is this:
“shadowbanning,” is when a troll’s comments are only visible to them. Since no one else can view the comments, there won’t be any responses, which will bore (or possible irritate!) the troll. Without an audience, the troll will quickly disappear.
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Valen

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Re: Current odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostSat Jan 03, 2015 11:36 pm

Might also pull out the one I really hated as a kid. It takes 2 for an argument. I hated it because I knew it was right. If I were not responding there would be no argument which makes me just as guilty if I keep responding.

If others refuse to participate and walk away all you have left is one person talking to themselves.
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Radagast Brown

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Re: Current odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostTue Jan 06, 2015 2:31 am

Betting on MLB futures is tricky, predicting for fun is well fun but less gratifying.. I wish I could wager credits on my SOM teams, at least I have some control in that! ..... Here is to a fun off-season with plenty of SOM and a great season not long from now. Go Tribe!
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teamnasty

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Re: Current odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostMon Jan 19, 2015 1:27 am

Well, it looks like the Scherzer signing won't change the order of my rankings, lol!
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Risden

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Re: Current odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostMon Jan 19, 2015 6:47 pm

teamnasty - very cool post. Something to review as the snow melts.

Not sure which salaries the Nationals will need to drop in order to accommodate the arrival of Max, but I keep hearing Jordan Zimmerman's name out there - most teams would LOVE to add him to their starting rotation.

Anyway, thanks for the post! Nicely done.
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teamnasty

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Re: Current odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostMon Jan 19, 2015 9:23 pm

Thanks Risden! I intend to update these numbers around the beginning of the season.
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teamnasty

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Re: Current odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostFri Jul 24, 2015 1:32 pm

"1. You predict the White Sox to finish ahead of Cleveland, so I'll take the Cleveland side of that proposition and wager 1 credit that they'll have a better end of regular season record than the White Sox. In event of a tie record, it's a push and neither of us win this bet. Similar rule applies to propositions 2-6 below.

2. You predict that the Cubs will finish ahead the Pittsburgh Pirates, so I'll take Pittsburgh to have a better end of season record than the Cubs. 1 credit on the line

3. You predict that Baltimore will finish ahead of the Anaheim Angels, so I'll take Anaheim to have a better end of season record than Baltimore. 1 credit on the line.

4. You predict that Heyward sucks and that Atlanta won the trade for Shelby Miller, so I'll wager that Jason Heyward will have a higher Fangraphs W.A.R.P. score at the end of the regular season than Shelby Miller. 1 credit on the line.

5. I'll wager that Giancarlo Stanton will finish higher in the MVP voting than your boy Anthony Rendon. 1 credit on the line.

6. I'll wager that Bryce Harper will finish higher in the MVP voting than Anthony Rendon. 1 credit on the line."


Wow, it's a good thing Strether punked out of making the six wagers above as I'm on the winning side of all of them so far. A man who knows his limits is smart indeed.
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l.strether

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Re: Current odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostFri Jul 24, 2015 1:48 pm

Firstly, Nasty, it's both hilarious and sad you go around thinking about what I've posted before. Your fixation is flattering. Secondly, talk about limits, let's look at some of those trade predictions; here's the first:

I correctly and presciently said this about the Shelby Miller-Jason Heyward trade:
l.strether wrote:Well, they obviously went in the "What can the Braves get for Heyward?" direction, and I think they got a good get for the soon-to-be-free agent. Shelby Miller had a little bit of a decline last year. However, it was hardly a sophomore slump, and he's still a 24-year old hard (94+) throwing SP who has already proven he can win and succeed at the major league level. Considering Heyward's hit tool never solidified as hoped, getting Miller and the talented hard-throwing prospect Jenkins in return is a nice deal for Atlanta. Yes, Walden will be missed, but the LaStella-for-Vizcaino deal was clearly made in anticipation of his exit.

Your retort was both lame and wrong:
teamnasty wrote: I think the Cards absolutely swindled Atlanta in the Heyward-Miller trade.

Considering the Braves still have three more years of Miller, who has shone this year, and Heyward has a .700+ OPS, you really should have "known your limits" and kept quiet here... ;)
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l.strether

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Re: Current odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostFri Jul 24, 2015 1:58 pm

Let's look at another trade you messed up on--the Gregorius-Greene-Ray deal. I, again, correctly evaluated the trade and correctly predicted success for Robbie Ray in Arizona:
l.strether wrote:AZ got a solid return for Gregorius. They got a 23 year-old lhp who throws 95 and touches 97 who could relieve or fill the back end of the rotation, and a solid athletic infield prospect with a strong hit tool who hit .397 in A ball. I don't see them getting more for Gregorius, who hit .226/.290/.363 and whose footwork and defense declined this year. Also, Greene's pre-2014 history is unimportant, although he did have a 3.18 ERA in Trenton last year, so it wasn't that bad. More importantly, he now throws in the low-mid 90's, he had a 3.78 ERA, and more than 9 K/9ip. That's a pretty good get for the Tigers.

You, again, poorly evaluated the trade, even slagging Robbie Ray, who has been excellent in Arizona:
teamnasty wrote:Ray has walked 190+ in 420 minor league innings. That's a large sample size of lousy control. K rate dropping at an age when it needs to rise. Ugly return for a solid young SS in an era when that type of players in demand

Ray, who throws hard, has a 2.72 ERA and a 1.12 Whip. Gregorius has a pitiful .617 OPS. Again, you should have known your limitations and kept quiet... ;)
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