Hot Stove

Cubs deal Valbuena and Straily to the Astros for Fowler. A nice moderate win win for both teams based on their roster needs but I like the Astros end slightly better.

Cubs deal Valbuena and Straily to the Astros for Fowler. A nice moderate win win for both teams based on their roster needs but I like the Astros end slightly better.


YEA!
That's 2 of my Keepers heading to the friendly confines .

The Crew trade Yovani Gallardo and $4M to the Texas Rangers for 3 decent, but non elite prospects. It's a little puzzling because frankly Milwaukee may be closer to a wild card berth than the Rangers are considering their respective divisions, but the Fielder and Choo contracts put the emphasis on winning now. Given the Brewers' surprising depth in their rotation and lack of depth in their minors, I like their end of the trade more. They also save a net of 10M in the deal.

I like the trade for both teams. Yes, the Brewers could possibly win a wild card, but they knew they wouldn't be able to sign Gallardo after this season, and wanted to be sure they got some return from him. As you mentioned, they do have pitching depth and traded from strength. While none of the prospects were elite, Sardinas is a legitimate shortstop prospect who's better defensively than Segura and could move him to third. Knebel is a hard-throwing rh rhp Texas stole from Detroit who could likely make their bullpen this year. Diplan is a raw teenager, but he throws hard and is well-regarded.

As for Texas, as you mentioned, their payroll demands they try to compete every year. So, they traded three expendable prospects--Sardinas was never going to beat out Profar, Odor, or Andrus--for a legitimate #3 starter who becomes their second best starter. Even if they don't resign him, the trade was worth it for them.

I think it is just wishful thinking but there have been rumblings up here that this puts the Brewers in a financial position to trade for and sign Jordan Zimmerman(perhaps a hometown discount from him since grew up in Wisconsin) or make a run at Shields.

Zimmerman seems more likely though doesn't sound like the Nationals are going to trade him. Their statements about not trading him, however, could be posturing to try to maximize return.

The Astros sign Colby Rasmus for 1 year at $8M. Excellent, cheap, short term upside gamble. Can't believe the O's lost out to the Stros for that little money.

I can't believe Colby Rasmus is a Teamnasty player. He had a 0.9 WAR last year, he has had 4 seasons with WAR under 2, he had a dismal .225/.287/.448 line last year, and has a poor career .313 OBP. Judging from your past posts, I would have thought you would have criticized the signing.

Also, what do you mean when you say "upside" and "short-term upside"? What is the difference between them for you?

1 year deals for 8 million dollars never cripple a franchise. Rasmus has put up more than 4 warp twice in his career, and did so as recently as 2013, and put up 2.5 war in a third season. He doesn't even have to hit his upside for the contract to be cost justified; wins cost roughly 7.5million per in this offseason, so he justifies the contract if he simply is a 1 warp player. Let's say he puts up another duck of a season with .5warp only. That's about the equivalent of a 4 million dollar loss, a one time hit to the Astros, which is utterly manageable to their future. But if he puts up an "average" season of 2 warp it quickly becomes an 8 million dollar surplus win for them; and that number escalates rapidly if he hits his previous upside of 4 wins.

So its a cheap signing that doesn't chain the Astros to a long term investment, and one that could easily pay dividends in 2015. Even if their team is lousy Rasmus becomes a decent trade piece at the deadline. And there is some reason to believe they won't be lousy.

Have a good day.

But I agree with you that Rasmus is a maddening, inconsistent player, who has put up some lousy seasons.

But I agree with you that Rasmus is a maddening, inconsistent player, who has put up some lousy seasons.

This was what I was getting at. I didn't see him as a player who would particularly excite you. However, I completely agree he's worth the risk. Even if his OBP and WAR are lousy again, as they mostly likely will be, a standout center fielder with excellent defense, some speed, and a likely output of 15-20 home runs is a good deal at 8m. This also allows them to give Marisnick one more year to hone his iffy hitting tool and keep Springer at his natural RF position.

Anyway, considering people have different definitions of "upside," I'm still interested in yours. You mentioned "short-term upside." What do you mean by that and how do you differentiate it from your definition of "upside"?