Updated odds to win the 2015 World Series

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teamnasty

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Updated odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostFri Feb 06, 2015 8:58 pm

Ok my fellow nerds, I've tweaked my rankings since 12/31/14 after taking into account a few reassessments, trades, and free agents signings. The current odds against are listed first, the older odds and adjustment comments are listed in parentheses. Have it boys, who do you see as good or bad bets if this was a Vegas casino? Interested in your feedback, thanks in advance.

Washington Nationals 8.5:1 (9) (Scherzer now in)
Los Angeles Dodgers 9.5:1 (10) (Pecota odds now in, Dodger bullish)
Boston Red Sox 12:1 (14.5) (They have the offensive depth and cash to upgrade rotation)
Seattle Mariners 12.5:1 (10.5) (Big front liners, questionable depth, A's improved)
St. Louis Cardinals 13.5:1 (12.5) (Wainwright's arm somewhat dicey)
Detroit Tigers 14.5:1 (13) (VMart's injury presages a narrow path to divisional win)
Cleveland Indians 15.5:1 (16.5) (I'm tellin ya, if the glass slipper fits...)
Anaheim Angels 16:1 (15.5) (A's salvage offseason with Zobrist)
Pittsburgh Pirates 18:1 (15.5) (Pecota, CW not as high on Pitt as I initially. Taken into acct)
Toronto Blue Jays 22.5:1 (same)
San Francisco Giants 25:1 (22) (underwhelming offseason failed to net Shields, LAD beastly)
Miami Marlins 32:1 (same)
Chicago Cubs 35.5:1 (39) (Fowler helps a shallow OF, power-heavy lineup)
New York Yankees 35.5 (43.5) (lots of good small moves to improve team D, pen)
Baltimore Orioles 39:1 (same)
Kansas City Royals 39:1 (same)
San Diego Padres 49:1 (60.5) (I'm baking in a decent shot at a Shields or Hamels deal)
Oakland Athletics 49:1 (61.5) (Zobrist deal saved their 2015 chances)
New York Mets 76:1 (same)
Cincinnati Reds 78:1 (73)
Milwaukee Brewers 80:1 (84.5) (very close w/Reds)
Chicago White Sox 90:1 (same) (they may rise in my next look, don't buy CW yet)
Tampa Bay Rays 99:1 (same)
Colorado Rockies 166:1 (same)
Arizona Diamondbacks 221:1 (same) (looking closer to downgrade next time)
Texas Rangers 500:1 (same) (Like Wainwright, Darvish a big TJ risk)
Houston Astros 500:1 (1000) (smart enough GM to make ya go 'hmmm')
Atlanta Braves 900:1 (199) (A near complete offensive tear-down)
Minnesota Twins 1000+:1 (same)
Philadelphia Phillies 1000+:1 (750) (Let's face it, this team sucks)
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l.strether

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Re: Updated odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostFri Feb 06, 2015 10:03 pm

I have to ask about that "glass slipper"--and 15.5-1 odds--you ascribe to Cleveland. It seems pretty generous. What is your analysis of them, and how does it lead to such optimism for them?
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teamnasty

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Re: Updated odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostFri Feb 06, 2015 10:24 pm

A fair question. Taking my daughter out tonight will answer later. Have a good evening.
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chasenally

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Re: Updated odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostFri Feb 06, 2015 10:55 pm

The word around the water cooler is that Charlie Sheen is back!
The msaegse is waht mttares msot!
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l.strether

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Re: Updated odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostFri Feb 06, 2015 11:16 pm

Poor, screwy Charlie is quite a few years, and a plethora of neurons, past his Ricky Vaughn days.
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chasenally

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Re: Updated odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostSat Feb 07, 2015 12:04 am

"plethora"

One of my all time favorite words. Nice job!
The msaegse is waht mttares msot!
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scorehouse

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Re: Updated odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostSat Feb 07, 2015 2:54 pm

like the odds on the A's and the Astros. A's seem to always be there and the Astros are slowly but surely becoming an offensive force to be reckoned with. if Gattis is healthy and can DH, he could easily hit 30-40 hrs in Minute Maid to go with Altuve who led the league in hits and average and Carter's hrs.
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unclerowser

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Re: Updated odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostSun Feb 08, 2015 3:16 pm

Put a buck on the White Sox for me please.
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l.strether

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Re: Updated odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostSun Feb 08, 2015 3:29 pm

unclerowser wrote:Put a buck on the White Sox for me please.

I love the White Sox, myself, and consider them stronger than Cleveland...and maybe even Detroit.

The White Sox have a better rotation than the Indians. They have a clear ace in Sale, a #2 starter/potential ace in Samardzija, a solid #3/4 lefty in Quintana, a back-end innings-eater in Danks, and hard-throwing lefty Carlos Rodon most likely ready to come up by June. Their excellent bullpen is led by the ace closer Robertson and supported by Duke, Guerra, Petricka, and Putnam.

Their lineup is strong and improved with OB man Eaton at lead-off and Cf, Lf Melky Cabrera most likely batting second or third, beast Jose Abreu batting third and playing first, power-hitting lefty LaRoche protecting him at DH, with Flowers adding power at catcher and Ramirez adding pop, speed, and defense at short. Also, Avisail Garcia is healthy and should have no problem hitting 15-25 homers while manning RF.
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l.strether

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Re: Updated odds to win the 2015 World Series

PostMon Feb 09, 2015 5:42 pm

Speaking of the Indians,

I was going to wait for Nasty to give me his analysis of his Cinderella team before I gave mine, but since it's been three days, I thought I'd go ahead.

To me, Cleveland is the fourth (perhaps third) best team in the division. They're a few years away from competing when Lindor, Zimmer, Frazier, and even Naquin arrive. At this point, they have a questionable rotation. Kluber is obviously an ace, but the rest are question marks. Bauer has nice stuff, but still wastes too many pitches trying to set up strike outs and ends up with high walk and pitch counts. Carrasco had a nice run, but that follows two really bad years. House had a nice cup of coffee, but he doesn't throw hard and will have to prove himself over the season. Salazar and Tomlin just didn't pitch well, and there's not much reason to think they should.

Their lineup also has significant holes and question marks. Bourn and Swisher are pretty much useless and done. If Brantley--their star--has to play Cf, he goes from being a solid left fielder to a subpar CF. Murphy showed last year he's not a full-time player. Chisenhall is a terrible defensive 3b who greatly faded in the second half. Ramirez is a yeoman shortstop at best who had a .300 OBP last year, and Kipnis, while talented, took a big step backwards last year and only has a career .738 OPS.

So, those are a lot of holes, that a sound bullpen and Gomes, Brantley, and Santana are going to have a hard time overcoming. If Lindor is ready to hit .260/.325/.385 and play his sterling D, the Indians could win 82-83. If not, they're looking at a sub-.500, 3rd-4th place finish.
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