Updated odds to win the 2015 World Series

Here are the 2015 win projections for the AL CENTRAL from the major sabrmetric projection systems:

PECOTA STEAMER DAVENPORT ZIPS*

Det 83 85 83 40 starter warp (no bench figures)

Cle 80 84 85 32 starter warp

Chi 79 78 82 29 starter warp

KC 71 81 81 (not projected yet)

Minn 70 75 73 21 starter warp


* The ZIPS standing projections aren't out yet, but the projected starter (SP, pen, 9 Hitters) warp scores are out and can be compared.

All systems have Cleveland no lower than 2nd in the projections, with Davenport ranking them first. They are 1-3 wins behind Detroit's talent in Pecota and Steamer as currently constructed, a bit further probably under ZIPs. While the White Sox may win the grade for the offseason that most improved their chances relative to 2014, they still rank below Cleveland and Detroit in all of these systems, and behind KC in at least one.

I don't have time to compare all 5 teams by positions but suffice it to say that the AL Central has the weakest top of the division of any division in baseball, and it wouldn't take that many injuries or bad bounces for the Tigers to slip behind Cleveland.

Cleveland won 85 games last year, Chisox won 73. Both teams outperformed their run differentials and component stats by 2 games each, so you're still looking at a 12 game talent difference between the 2014 versions of those teams. I don't think the White Sox have made up a 12+ win gap with their active offseason. It's a narrower difference between the teams, and it certainly could happen, but I don't think the probabilities are with them.

I also think Francona has the best track record of any manager in the division at getting the most out of his teams' true talent levels.

agree on the sox at 90 to 1. not sure these r the real odds?

All systems have Cleveland no lower than 2nd in the projections, with Davenport ranking them first. They are 1-3 wins behind Detroit's talent in Pecota and Steamer as currently constructed, a bit further probably under ZIPs.

First of all, TN, I don't base my predictions on other people's or publication's predictions. I do my own. The ones I did on Chicago and Cleveland took me 10 minutes each, so I'm surprised you don't do your own analyses as well. I thought you were going to give me your analysis of your "Glass Slipper" team, not a rehashing of other guys' analyses.

Secondly, who cares what they did last year. We're making our predictions for this year. As I noted in my analyses, Chicago is a remarkably improved team this year; and Cleveland is full of holes, question marks, and probable over-performers. So, my analyses of those teams are accurate and sound. If you ever want to actually address and/or counter them with your own analyses, I would welcome the discussion.

Scorehouse the odds are mine, not Vegas'.

i know. the WhiteSsox r more like 20-1 and the Astros r 50-1. don't know why you inflated the odds so much?

a couple of spots have the Sox as low as 15-1. the highest odds i found were 300-1 on the Phillies

found another that opened the Sox at 45-1 and they've already been bet down to 18-1. this early, that's a pretty large move.

Padres have made a big move down also. they r currently in the 20/15-1 range

Vegas's odds also get influenced by betting trends, and don't necessarily equate to real chances of teams winning.

never heard of a "betting trend" on a season bet? long range futures bets open and then the amount of money wagered moves the odds.